Liveblog

Op veel vlakken een merkwaardige week met up en down die elkaar snel afwisselen, de markt maakt wel een nieuwe bodem die wat lager uitkwam dan de bodem van de week ervoor. Ik merk ook dat de markt er veel onzekerder uitziet dan een paar weken geleden zodat we moeten opletten voor mogelijk nog een veel grotere beweging. Het is een beetje zoeken naar de echte waarderingen, dat die veel te hoog zijn weten we de markt zal de juiste waardering wel gaan opzoeken op een gegeven moment. De rente is ook iets om naar uit te kijken, de inflatiecijfers blijven moeilijk in deze fase. Kortom, ik denk niet dat de markten tot rust gaan komen ...

Verwachting markt:
Het herstel van de afgelopen 2 dagen voelt niet echt betrouwbaar, de snelheid en het FOMO gevoel stak de kop weer op en het is soms zo herkenbaar. Wel is het zo dat de daling de afgelopen week sneller en dieper ging dan die van de week ervoor. Kortom, er stonden lagere bodems dan die van de week ervoor en op zich is dat geen goed teken als we dat naar beurstermen vertalen. Daarom ben ik net als iedereen zeer benieuwd naar het vervolg de komende week, kalmte is er amper op de markten nu dus we moeten alert blijven en proberen om te handelen op grote bewegingen ofwel rond de topzone of rond de bodem.

Maar dat er zich kansen genoeg voordoen is een feit, ook nu weer, het stevige herstel zou wel eens een momentum kunnen opleveren voor een nieuwe instap omlaag hetgeen ik voorzichtig ook doe met kleine posities voor de leden.

Weekoverzicht:
Op Wall Street sluit alles desondanks de rally van donderdag en vrijdag de week af met verlies, de Dow Jones kreeg alle kanten van het spectrum te zien want na het nieuwe record van maandag op 35.091 punten terwijl de bodem van de afgelopen week uitkwam op 33.555 punten. Een verschil tussen hoog en laag toch 1535 punten ofwel 4,5%. Door de rally van donderdag en vrijdag beperkt de Dow het verlies tot 395 punten bekeken over de gehele week. De S&P 500 verloor 59 punten terwijl de Dow Transport slechts 26 punten lager sloot. De grootste verliezen zien we bij de tech indices, de Nasdaq verloor 322 punten terwijl de Nasdaq 100 de week 326 punten lager sluit. De SOX index (semiconductor index) verloor 131 punten. De tech indices staan na de rally nog altijd onder hun 50-daags gemiddelde. Hoe dan ook een behoorlijk volatiele week op Wall Street.

Europa lag er ook weer verdeeld bij want de AEX verloor 15 punten (-2,1%) terwijl de DAX net in de plus sluit op weekbasis (+17 punten). De Franse CAC 40 sluit de week vlak af, er staat een verliesje van -0,4 punt. In Europa dus een vreemd verloop en vooral de divergentie valt ook hier op, zie het verschil tussen de AEX en de DAX, wel werd het een volatiele week alles bij elkaar genomen want de indices laten een brede range zien tussen hoog en laag. De top bij de AEX kwam uit op 718,5 punten, de bodem zien we rond de 678 punten, tussen hoog en laag goed voor ruim 40 punten.

Resultaat dit jaar verloopt naar wens maar we blijven rustig:
Deze maand heb ik al 2 keer met posities winst kunnen behalen, we zitten nu weer met wat kleine posities in de markt die op de komende week zijn gericht, dit na het stevige herstel van de afgelopen 2 sessies, ofwel ik ga voor een nieuwe terugval na de heropleving. Zo staan we deze maand op een mooie winst en ook bekeken over dit jaar (2021) loopt alles prima. We bouwen gestaag verder en ik verwacht dat we nog wat kunnen doen de komende sessies. Morgen of maandag kunnen we mogelijk wat doen.

Wordt nu dus lid en volg de signalen, er komen nog hele leuke kansen dit jaar omdat ik de nodige volatiliteit verwacht op beurzen ... Zie hieronder het resultaat van deze maand per abonnement. De posities die nu open staan kunt u maandag nog opnemen.

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 JULI voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Technische ontwikkeling markt:
Technisch bekeken blijft alles moeilijk nu, we zien veel beweging en dat maakt alles er niet makkelijker op. Toch kunnen we op extremen wat doen, dat is ook weer een voordeel bij het handelen. Wel is het zo dat de indices nu onder hun toppen staan maar waar ik dacht dat het even voorbij zou zijn (wat nog altijd kan) zien we dat alles behalve de tech indices er weer naartoe kruipt. Wel is het ook zo dat de beweging van pakweg 2-3% omhoog vanaf de bodem kan worden gecorrigeerd de komende week. Dus technisch even moeilijk maar aan de andere kant is het ook zo dat de rally snel weer kan worden verkocht.

De komende dagen weten we meer, even maandag afwachten. En nogmaals, technisch neig ik meer naar een nieuwe poot omlaag, dus opletten en niet te gretig worden.

Overzicht markt:

Technische conditie AEX:
De AEX herpakt zich sterk en dat na de piek onder de belangrijke steun, het was wel slecht dat die even niet werd gehouden maar het slot erboven is in ieder geval positief voor op de korte termijn. Wel twijfel ik of de index nu zomaar weer naar de top kan, een hertest van die zone 688-690 punten zit er nog zeker in de komende week. We gaan het zien, steun nu de zone 695-698 met snel daaronder die bodemzone 688-690 punten. Dat wordt belangrijk nu. Weerstand rond de huidige stand en de 708 punten, later de bekende 712 en de topzone 718-719 punten.

Technische conditie DAX:
De DAX blijft nog steeds sterk liggen en wist zich desondanks de stevige schuiver van donderdag te herpakken tot net onder de topzone. Dat wil niet zeggen dat we er vanuit moeten gaan dat de DAX vrij spel omhoog krijgt, wel is het zo dat de index zich sterk weet te houden in deze toch moeilijke fase.

De DAX blijft dus boven de 15.000 punten voorlopig, steun nu die 15.200, de 15.100 en de bodemzone rond de 14.800-14.850 punten. Onder die 14.850 punten kan het wel versnellen omlaag maar we hebben voorlopig nog een houvast bij de DAX. We zien ook de lagere toppen via de grafiek hieronder en de indicatoren blijven nog altijd zwak bij de DAX. Het ziet er desondanks het verloop van de afgelopen 2 sessies nog steeds niet al te best uit. Weerstand nu de top rond de 15.500 punten.

S&P 500 analyse:
De S&P herpakt zich sterk vanaf het 50-MA en de steunlijn onder de bodems, het ging wel weer heel snel zodat ik nog wel een correctie verwacht op deze grote move omhoog. Weerstand nu de zone 4175-4200 punten, later de topzone rond de 4230-4235 punten. Steun blijft de 4120 en de bodem van de afgelopen week rond de 4065 punten, dat het snel kan gaan hebben we gemerkt en daar moeten we hoe dan ook rekening mee blijven houden.

Analyse Nasdaq:
De Nasdaq blijft zwak, de index staat na het herstel van vrijdag nog altijd onder het 50-MA en de indicatoren staan negatief. Zowel de RSI onder de 50 en de MACD onder de 0-lijn. Steun nu de bodem van afgelopen week rond de 13.000 punten, later de 12.750 punten. Weerstand nu het 50-MA rond de 13.550 punten en de 13.725 punten. De index staat nu redelijk ver onder de top zodat ik niet verwacht dat we daar na 2 pogingen weer snel gaan geraken. We kijken ook hier naar het verloop de komende sessies ... Ik verwacht via de Nasdaq dat er snel een volgende daling op gang kan komen.

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.214 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 68,75 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1844 dollar staat.

De LIVEBLOG en Twitter:
Via de LIVEBLOG en tussendoor ook via mijn Twitter account laat ik gedurende de dag ook wat grafiekjes met korte uitleg voorbij komen over de markt. Op Twitter kunt u mij volgen via @USMarkets dan kunt u deze snelle informatie die ik deel uiteraard ook inzien .... https://twitter.com/USMarkets , ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 JULI voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder de resultaten van dit jaar (2021):

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart

TOP NEWS
• Fed expected to signal start of monetary policy shift debate
Federal Reserve officials are expected to at least flag the pending start of talks about when and how to exit from the crisis-era policies the U.S. central bank put in place at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

• Cheer over Boeing, Airbus deal belies cracks in EU, U.S. trade relationship
A deal for a five-year ceasefire in a U.S. and EU dispute over aircraft subsidies on Tuesday reflected progress, but the underlying trade relationship remains fragile with many unresolved disagreements, diplomats and trade experts said.

• EU says J&J to miss vaccine supply target in second quarter
Johnson & Johnson is expected to miss its COVID-19 vaccine supply target to the European Union for the second quarter after millions of doses were banned for use in Europe over safety concerns, an EU Commission spokesman said.

• EBay to sell South Korean unit for about $3.6 billion to Shinsegae, Naver -media
EBay will sell its South Korean business to retailer Shinsegae Group's E-Mart and web portal operator Naver for about $3.6 billion, local newspapers reported.

• Regeneron COVID-19 therapy cuts deaths among hospitalised patients who lack antibodies -study
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ COVID-19 antibody cocktail reduces deaths in hospitalised patients who have not mounted their own antibody response, a large British study published found.​


BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock index futures treaded water as investors refrained from placing big bets ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve meeting outcome. Gains in financial and industrial stocks lifted most European indexes. In Asian equity markets, China shares ended lower, dragged down by losses in material and healthcare stocks and Japan's benchmark Nikkei index fell as chip-related stocks tracked overnight weakness in U.S. peers. The dollar was little changed against a basket of major currencies, after hitting a one-month high in the previous session. A recovery in demand from the pandemic and a drop in U.S. crude inventories supported oil prices. Gold prices steadied in a narrow range. Housing data, along with import and export numbers are due for release later in the day.​


STOCKS TO WATCH

Results
• Oracle Corp: The company on Tuesday forecast current-quarter profit below Wall Street estimates, as the business software maker ramps up investments in its cloud computing business to take on rivals including Microsoft and Amazon.com. The company is planning to double its capital spending on the cloud segment to nearly $4 billion in fiscal 2022 as it benefits from the pandemic with businesses opting for hybrid-work models. Increased investment in cloud, however, led Oracle to forecast first-quarter earnings per share of 94 cents to 98 cents, below expectations of $1.03. Oracle said it expects current-quarter revenue at its largest unit, cloud services and license support, to grow by 4%, which comes to about $7.2 billion, according to Reuters' calculations. Analysts on average expect it to be $7.36 billion. The company posted adjusted profit of $1.54 per share on revenue of $11.23 billion in the fourth quarter ended May 31, compared with estimates of a profit of $1.31 and revenue of $11.04 billion.

Deals Of The Day
• Apollo Global Management Inc: Billionaire Tom Gores' private equity firm Platinum Equity would acquire textbook publishing and educational technology company McGraw Hill for $4.5 billion from Apollo Global, the companies said on Tuesday. McGraw Hill Chief Executive Officer Simon Allen and his senior leadership team will continue to lead the company under Platinum's ownership, the companies said. The deal is expected to be completed in the summer.

• EBay Inc: The e-commerce company will sell its South Korean business to retailer Shinsegae Group's E-Mart and web portal operator Naver for about $3.6 billion, local newspapers reported. E-Mart said in a regulatory filing that it was talking with eBay after entering a binding bid for acquiring eBay Korea this month, but that nothing had been finalised.​

In Other News
• Blackstone Group Inc: Blackstone is nearing a deal to buy office developer Soho China in what would be its biggest real estate investment in the Asian country, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Hong Kong-listed Soho China could be valued at about $3 billion in the deal that could be announced as soon as this week, the report said. The report comes a day after Soho China's shares were halted for trading at the company's request, pending an announcement under Hong Kong's code on takeovers and mergers. The company has a market value of $2.55 billion as of its stock's last close, according to Refinitiv data.

• Citigroup Inc: The bank's finance chief Mark Mason on Tuesday predicted a strong economic recovery this year as more people get vaccinated, but cautioned that may not translate into better profits for the bank because of a slowdown in institutional businesses and higher expenses. "It's been a consumer-led recovery," the CFO said, particularly "driven by the significant take up that we've seen as it relates to vaccinations." The bank, however, does not expect a sizeable uptick in corporate loan growth for the rest of the year, Mason warned, even as consumer borrowing is seen picking up in the second half. "Given the liquidity that's in the market and all the debt issuance activity that we saw last year, I'm not expecting corporate loan growth in the balance of the year," Mason said. The CFO also hinted at higher-than-expected expenses for the bank in the quarter, as the lender continued to invest in areas like investment banking, wealth management and others.

• Credit Suisse Group AG: The bank has prepared its first insurance claims on losses stemming from its $10 billion of funds tied to collapsed finance group Greensill Capital, the Financial Times reported. Credit Suisse is attempting to recoup billions of dollars owed to the group of supply-chain finance funds, which it was forced to close in March, the report added. The bank has started the process of claiming on the related insurance, primarily from Japanese group Tokio Marine 8766.T, the newspaper said, citing people with knowledge of the process. "While it is our general policy not to comment on individual policyholder relationships or policy terms, we currently do not anticipate any material impact on our financials for the 2021 fiscal year and onwards," Tokio Marine said in an emailed statement.

• Ford Motor Co: Britain is in talks with six companies for building gigafactories to produce electric vehicle batteries, the Financial Times reported, citing people briefed on the discussions. Ford, Nissan, LG, Samsung and start-ups Britishvolt and InoBat Auto are in talks with the British government or local authorities about locations for potential factories and financial support, according to the report. A UK business department spokesperson said "to support the auto sector’s transition to electric vehicles" the government is "dedicated to securing gigafactories, and continue to work closely with investors and vehicle manufacturers to progress plans to mass produce batteries in the UK".​

• General Motors Co: The automaker will boost global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% jump over its most recent forecast as it pursues EV leadership, people briefed on the matter told Reuters. As part of that spending, the No. 1 U.S. automaker will build two additional U.S. battery plants and move ahead some of its EV investments, said the sources, who asked not to be identified. In addition, GM Chief Executive Mary Barra is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other key Democrats to discuss EVs and vehicle emissions, the sources said.

• Johnson & Johnson: The company is expected to miss its COVID-19 vaccine supply target to the European Union for the second quarter after millions of doses were banned for use in Europe over safety concerns, an EU Commission spokesman said. The European drugs regulator last week said J&J doses sent to Europe from an Emergent factory in the United States would not be used as a precaution after a case of contamination with substances used for AstraZeneca shots, which are also manufactured in that factory. EMA said in a statement to Reuters that 17 million doses had been forbidden from being used in the bloc after that decision. "Following the non-release of these batches, the company is not expected to be in a position to deliver 55 million doses by the end of this quarter," the EU commission spokesman told Reuters.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: Malaysian state-owned energy company Petronas and Indonesian counterpart Pertamina are on a watchlist for removal from JPMorgan’s ESG EMBI index, the bank said in a statement on Tuesday. JPMorgan said both oil majors "are expected to exit the JESG suite at the June month-end rebalance" as their scores fell below a required threshold and they are no longer eligible for inclusion. The bank uses outside firms to assess the ESG score required for inclusion in the index. Sustainalytics, one of them, said some of Petronas’ or its affiliates' activities in "high-risk regions" may be viewed as a violation of a United Nations arms embargo, according to the bank's statement. The decline in score is also related to "ongoing exposure to multiple incidents related to human rights" and "the ongoing political situation in Myanmar."

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc: The company's COVID-19 antibody cocktail reduces deaths in hospitalised patients who have not mounted their own antibody response, a large British study published found. The therapy, REGEN-COV, has been granted emergency use authorisation for people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in the United States, but results from the RECOVERY trial provide the clearest evidence of its effectiveness among hospitalised patients. It found that the antibody therapy reduced by a fifth the 28-day mortality of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 whose immune system had not mounted an antibody response, known as seronegative. "People have been very, very sceptical, that any treatment against this particular virus would work by the time people get in hospital," Martin Landray, the joint chief investigator on the trial, told reporters. "If you haven't raised antibodies of your own, you really would benefit from getting some," he said.

• Toyota Motor Corp: The automaker's shares reached a record high, earning a rare message of thanks from the company's president at its annual general meeting. The share price of Japan's no. 1 carmaker exceeded $90.84 on Tuesday for the first time, as investors welcomed Toyota's strong sales, electric plans as well as its ability to tackle a global chip shortage better than the competitors. Toyota shares closed nearly 1% higher at 10,175 yen. "It could be accidental that our share price topped 10,000 yen as we prepared for the meeting, but we were so much encouraged because of it," said company president Akio Toyoda at the AGM held at Toyota's headquarter in Toyota City, Nagoya.

• Twitter Inc: India's technology minister said on Tuesday that Twitter had deliberately defied and failed to comply with the country's new IT rules, which became effective in late May. India's technology ministry wrote to Twitter on June 5, warning the company of "unintended consequences" if it did not obey the rules, Reuters previously reported. Ravi Shankar Prasad did not directly say on Tuesday whether Twitter had lost intermediary protections, but a senior government official told Reuters that Twitter may no longer be eligible to seek liability exemptions as an intermediary or the host of user content in India due to its failure to comply with new IT rules. "There are numerous queries arising as to whether Twitter is entitled to safe harbour provision," Prasad tweeted. "However, the simple fact of the matter is that Twitter has failed to comply with the Intermediary Guidelines that came into effect from the 26th of May."​


ANALYSIS
Investors ask U.S. SEC for more ESG disclosures as companies resist
Investor groups have asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for more corporate disclosures on climate change and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues while business interests have pushed back, a Reuters review of correspondence published by the regulator shows.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Lithia Motors Inc: JPMorgan raises target price to $420 from $415, citing the company’s intra-quarter update highlighting May revenue run-rate with strong growth across all business segments.

• LyondellBasell Industries NV: Jefferies raises target price to $135 from $130, saying tight supply, strong customer-driven demand and recovery in durable goods markets continue to lead to strong pricing and margin expansion.

• Oracle Corp: Barclays raises target price to $83 from $80, expecting accelerating growth in the mid-term as the company spending environment continues to improve and portfolio mix effect becomes favorable for the overall growth trajectory.

• Sage Therapeutics Inc: SVB Leerink cuts target price to $70 from $90, staying less bullish on the prospects for the company’s zuranolone drug.​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 (approx.) Building permits number for May: Expected 1.730 mln; Prior 1.733 mln
0830 (approx.) Building permits change mm for May: Prior -1.3%
0830 (approx.) Housing starts number for May: Expected 1.630 mln; Prior 1.569 mln
0830 (approx.) Housing starts change mm for May: Prior -9.5%
0830 (approx.) Import prices mm for May: Expected 0.8%; Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) Export prices mm for May: Expected 0.8%; Prior 0.8%
0830 (approx.) Import prices yy for May: Prior 10.6%
1400 Fed funds target rate: Expected 0-0.25%; Prior 0-0.25%
1400 (approx.) Fed interest on excess reserves: Prior 0.10%​


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Lennar Corp: Expected Q2 earnings of $2.36 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 Seres Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0830 La-Z-Boy Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Altice USA Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 IAA Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 ImmunoGen Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 Translate Bio Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 Exlservice Holdings Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 Service Properties Trust: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 TG Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Acceleron Pharma Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 AMC Networks Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Antero Midstream Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Armada Hoffler Properties Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Best Buy Co Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Fidelity National Financial Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1030 Antero Resources Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Addus Homecare Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Ares Management Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Black Knight Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Canoo Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Grand Canyon Education Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Natus Medical Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Avidity Biosciences Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 NanoString Technologies Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Pacific Biosciences of California Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Trupanion Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Twilio Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1230 Guardant Health Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1230 Vaxart Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Alphatec Holdings Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Morphic Holding Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Cortexyme Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Ingersoll Rand Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Karuna Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1600 Seer Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1600 UMH Properties Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1700 Honest Company Inc: Q1 earnings conference call
1800 Autodesk Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting​


EX-DIVIDENDS
Aaron's Company Inc: Amount $0.10
ADT Inc: Amount $0.03
Apollo Investment Corp: Amount $0.31
Belden Inc: Amount $0.05
Best Buy Co Inc: Amount $0.70
Cincinnati Financial Corp: Amount $0.63
Huntington Bancshares Inc: Amount $0.15
Luminex Corp: Amount $0.10
Meridian Bancorp Inc (MARYLAND): Amount $0.10
Synovus Financial Corp: Amount $0.33​

De cijfers vielen tegen gisteren en dat zet Wall Street voorzichtig een stapje terug, het ging vooral om de inflatie die verder oploopt en de detailhandel verkoop in de VS die ver onder de verwachtingen lag want waar men 0,7% daling werd aangegeven werd het 1,3%. Verder wacht men op de FED die vandaag om 20:00 komt met berichten rondom het opkoop programma en de rente. Beleggers wachten daar nu op.

De S&P 500 verloor gisteren 0,25% en sluit onder de recordstand van maandag, ook de Nasdaq die net onder het record terecht kwam maandag sluit lager en liet 0,7% liggen. De Dow Jones verloor wederom, deze keer moest de index 0,3% inleveren. Kijken we naar Europa dan zien we overal een plus, de DAX geraakt deze keer ook wat hoger en won 0,35%. De AEX won met 0,1% minimaal terwijl de CAC 40 een winst van 0,35% liet zien. De DAX, de AEX en de CAC 40 zetten weer een nieuw record neer op slotbasis, Europa ligt er dus nog steeds sterk bij en alle indices lopen wat verder uit boven hun eerdere zware weerstand.

We krijgen in ieder geval nieuws van de FED vanavond, wat het zal worden weet men uiteraard nog niet maar beleggers verwachten in ieder geval niet veel verandering waardoor men uitgaat dat de beurzen dit jaar verder kunnen blijven stijgen omdat de FED de geldkraan nog niet dicht wil draaien.

Men bekijkt het nog altijd door de rose bril ofwel men ziet het glas zelfs rond deze hoge standen nog steeds halfvol. Men gaat er vanuit dat de oplopende inflatie slechts van tijdelijke aard zal zijn. Pas wanneer er signalen de kop opsteken dat de inflatie voor een langere periode hoog blijft zal men zich grotere zorgen maken erover. Daarom blijft de FED belangrijk, zodra men zegt (en dat kan ook vandaag) dat men begint te denken aan afbouwen kan het sentiment snel omslaan.

Resultaat dit jaar verloopt nog altijd naar wens en we blijven rustig:
We hebben deze maand al 3 keer iets kunnen doen maar we schieten er nog niet veel mee op. Let erop dat we al geruime tijd goed bezig zijn en als het even niet loopt zoals verwacht ik snel reageer om verlies te beperken. We doen rustig verder en ik zoek altijd waar het kan naar een instap bij de indices. Het is wel zo dat de divergentie tussen de indices het wat lastiger maakt om een duidelijke keuze te maken.

Wordt nu dus lid en volg de signalen die er snel weer komen ... Zie hieronder het resultaat van deze maand per abonnement.

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 AUGUSTUS voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder het resultaat van deze maand (JUNI):

Technische ontwikkeling markt:
We zien nog altijd een sterke markt en de indices blijven dicht bij hun toppen, de trend blijft omhoog tot er een draaipunt komt en ik verwacht niet dat we er ver vanaf zitten rond de niveaus die werden bereikt de afgelopen dagen. De Dow Jones daarentegen is al aan het draaien zien we duidelijk op de grafiek hieronder. Andere indices zoals de AEX en de DAX blijven records neerzetten. De Nasdaq, de Nasdaq 100 en de SOX index komen nu net onder hun recordstanden uit. Via meerdere indices probeert de markt nu uit te breken maar nog steeds zie ik geen fors geweld naar omhoog. Het is nu vooral wachten op winstnemingen die voorlopig nog uitblijven.

Overzicht markt:

Technische conditie AEX:
De AEX blijft sterk liggen en zet opnieuw een recordslot neer op 731 punten. De hoogste stand ooit werd op 734.64 punten gezet gisteren. De AEX blijft uiteraard zeer afhankelijk van zwaargewicht ASML, het aandeel blijft maar gaan en bereikt al een stand op €578,5 op slotbasis en stond zelfs even op €588. Door dat ASML nu extreem zwaar weegt binnen de AEX zien we meteen al aan de stand van de index hoe ASML erbij ligt.

Weerstand nu de 732 punten, later nemen we de 738 en de 745 punten als richtpunten omhoog. Steun blijft voorlopig de oude weerstandszone rond de 718-719 punten, later de 711- 712 punten waar we nu ook het 50-daags gemiddelde zien.

Technische conditie DAX:
De DAX blijft boven de belangrijke 15.550 punten zone en weet een nieuw recordslot neer te zetten, die 15.550 punten was eerder de zeer zware weerstand bij de DAX, de index bleef daar weken tegenaan hikken. Desondanks het nieuwe record zal er niet veel nodig zijn om deze zone weer op te zoeken en zelfs te doorbreken naar beneden toe bij een terugval. Opletten dus wat betreft de DAX want ik vertrouw het verloop niet echt.

Weerstand nu de 15.730 punten, later de 15.850 en de 16.000 punten. Steun wordt blijft hoe dan ook die bekende 15.550 punten waar de index vrijdag ook even op terecht kwam. Later de 15.425 en de 15.340 punten.

Pas als de DAX duidelijk onder die 15.550 punten zakt kan het naar mijn mening snel weer terug naar de steunlijn onder de bodems en het 50-daags gemiddelde, beiden komen nu uit rond de 15.355 punten.

S&P 500 analyse:
De S&P 500 blijft na opnieuw een volatiele sessie hangen rondom binnen de zone 4230-4260 punten. De topzone wordt goed getest maar het is nog altijd zo dat er niet extreem veel power achter de beweging zit, het lijkt erop van wel maar op zich valt alles toch een beetje tegen omdat een echt krachtige uitbraak er maar niet komt. Ook naar omlaag zien we voorlopig nog niet veel druk. Weerstand nu eerst de 4275 punten, later de 4300 en de 4350 punten.

Steun nu de 4200 punten, later de 4175 punten waar het 50-MA uitkomt samen met de lijn onder de bodems. Onder die 4175 punten kan het wel eens moeilijk worden door dat de index dan in een soort gat valt en 5 tot 10% kan corrigeren. Denk eraan dat het steun niveau elke dag een paar punten (ongeveer 5) hoger komt te liggen en we dus heel snel dat punt kunnen bereiken bij een daling.

Analyse Nasdaq:
De Nasdaq doet wel een stapje terug maar sluit nog steeds dicht bij de top die we op 4211 punten zien uitkomen, er wachten daar nu 2 toppen, eentje in februari en een in april. De vraag is nu of er nu snel een 3e komt en of de index er deze keer wel door weet te geraken. Het wordt nu hoe dan ook moeilijk voor de technologie indices want normaal gezien bereiken we nu een zware weerstand.

De top op 14.211 punten wordt dus het eerste richtpunt, bij een uitbraak kijken we naar stappen van 100 punten, dus de 14.300, de 14.400 en de 14.500 punten. Steun nu eerst de 14.100 met later de 14.000 punten. Het 50-daags gemiddelde komt nu uit rond de 13.755 punten.

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.213 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 74,5 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1862 dollar staat.

De LIVEBLOG en Twitter:
Via de LIVEBLOG en tussendoor ook via mijn Twitter account laat ik gedurende de dag ook wat grafiekjes met korte uitleg voorbij komen over de markt. Op Twitter kunt u mij volgen via @USMarkets dan kunt u deze snelle informatie die ik deel uiteraard ook inzien .... https://twitter.com/USMarkets , ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 AUGUSTUS voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder de resultaten van dit jaar (2021):

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart

TOP NEWS
• Fed walks tightrope between big jobs gap and rising inflation
Federal Reserve officials meet this week faced with ongoing tension between their two main goals, as inflation rises faster than expected even with millions of Americans still unemployed more than a year after the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

• EU says it has resolved 17-year aircraft battle with U.S.
The European Union and the United States have resolved their near 17-year conflict over aircraft subsidies, the EU said, bringing to a close one set of Trump-era tariffs which had soured relations between them.

• U.S. Senate Republicans to discuss details of new infrastructure plan
U.S. Senate Republicans are due to hear details on Tuesday about a bipartisan proposal to revitalize America's roads and bridges, which lawmakers believe could win support from the caucus as a part of President Joe Biden's sweeping infrastructure plan.

• India to expedite Amazon, Flipkart antitrust probe as tech focus intensifies -sources
India's antitrust watchdog plans to expedite a restarted probe into allegations of anti-competitive behaviour at Amazon.com and Walmart’s Flipkart, as it intensifies scrutiny of big-tech firms, two people close to the matter said.

• Astra antibody cocktail fails to prevent COVID-19 symptoms in large trial
AstraZeneca said a late-stage trial failed to provide evidence that its COVID-19 antibody therapy protected people who had contact with an infected person from the disease, a small setback in its efforts to find alternatives to vaccines.


BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock index futures were little changed, as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. European shares rose on optimism of a speedy economic recovery. Japanese shares closed higher, buoyed by technology and growth-oriented stocks, while drug makers extended their gains. The dollar edged higher. Gold prices were mixed. Oil prices rose, amid optimism that demand will recover rapidly in the second half of this year. Producer price index, retail sales and industrial production data will be released later in the day.


STOCKS TO WATCH

Deals Of The Day
• Macquarie Infrastructure Corp: The company said late on Monday it signed a deal to sell its MIC Hawaii unit to an affiliate of investment manager Argo Infrastructure Partners. The development comes a week after MIC announced plans to sell its private aviation services network Atlantic Aviation. "The terms of the merger agreement correspond to an enterprise value for MIC Hawaii of $514 million including assumed debt and transaction costs", MIC said. At the deal's closing, the MIC Hawaii businesses will become a subsidiary of Argo for an expected consideration of $3.83 per unit, the statement added.

In Other News
• Amazon.com Inc & Walmart Inc: India's antitrust watchdog plans to expedite a restarted probe into allegations of anti-competitive behaviour at Amazon.comand Walmart’s Flipkart, as it intensifies scrutiny of big-tech firms, two people close to the matter said. Though Amazon and Flipkart are likely to appeal, the CCI plans to demand information from them related to the allegations "as quickly as possible", said one of the people, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The investigation "will be expedited", the person said. Amazon declined to comment. Flipkart and the CCI did not respond to requests for comment.

• American International Group Inc & PPL Corporation: Legal & General Investment Management, Britain's biggest asset manager, said it would drop four companies from a number of its funds over their "insufficient" response to the challenge of climate change, including U.S. insurer AIG. The others to be divested are Chinese lender Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, U.S. utility holding company PPL Corporation and Chinese dairy products holding company China Mengniu Dairy. "We've been making consistent requests for a multi-year period ... (the companies are) really not meeting what we consider to be baseline minimum standard expectations in terms of climate change management across their sectors," said Yasmine Svan, Senior Sustainability Analyst at LGIM.

• AstraZeneca PLC: The drugmaker said a late-stage trial failed to provide evidence that its COVID-19 antibody therapy protected people who had contact with an infected person from the disease, a small setback in its efforts to find alternatives to vaccines. The study assessed whether the therapy, a cocktail of two types of antibodies, could prevent adults who had been exposed to the virus in the past eight days from developing COVID-19 symptoms. The therapy, AZD7442, was 33% effective in reducing the risk of people developing symptoms compared with a placebo, but that result was not statistically significant — meaning it might have been due to chance and not the therapy. "While this trial did not meet the primary endpoint against symptomatic illness, we are encouraged by the protection seen in the PCR negative participants following treatment with AZD7442," AstraZeneca Executive Vice President Mene Pangalos said.

• Barnes & Noble Education Inc: A U.S. judge on Monday dismissed antitrust lawsuits accusing the dominant on-campus bookstore chains and college textbook publishers of conspiring to eliminate competition and raise prices by using agreements to sell course materials online, known as "Inclusive Access." U.S. District Judge Denise Cote in Manhattan rejected claims by undergraduate and graduate students, independent bookstores and online textbook sellers against Barnes & Noble Education, Follett Higher Education Group, and the publishers Cengage Learning, McGraw Hill and Pearson Education.

• Chevron Corp: The company plans to restart Train 3 at the Gorgon liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant off Western Australia in the "coming weeks", after it was shut for maintenance and weld inspections, a company spokesman said. "The Gorgon Train 3 turnaround continues to safely progress with LNG train restart activities expected in the coming weeks," he said, adding that the firm is continuing to deliver natural gas to its customers.

• Exxon Mobil Corp: Traders from the company’s natural gas liquids and gasoline units have left, according to three people familiar with the matter, the latest in a stream of departures from its downsized trading operations. The departures were part of a recent wave of exits as the U.S. oil producer pulled back on trading. Last year's historic losses and need to preserve capital prompted Exxon to limit trading and cut staff.

• Facebook Inc, Alphabet Inc, Twitter Inc & Apple Inc: Facebook and other Silicon Valley giants could face more scrutiny and sanctions in the European Union after the bloc's top court backed national privacy watchdogs to pursue them, even when they are not their lead regulators. Consumer lobbying group BEUC welcomed the ruling by the EU Court of Justice (CJEU), which backed the right of national agencies to act, citing enforcement bottlenecks. Along with Google, Twitter and Apple, Facebook has its EU headquarters in Ireland, putting it under the oversight of the Irish data protection regulator under privacy rules known as GDPR, which allow for fines of up to 4% of a company's global turnover for breaches.

• Ford Motor Co: The company said it had started producing and shipping the new Bronco sport utility vehicles (SUVs) from its Michigan assembly plant, following a delay in the launch of the SUVs due to COVID-19-related issues with the automaker's suppliers. Customers have booked more than 125,000 sixth-generation Bronco SUVs since the beginning of the year, the company said. The SUVs are targeted at the Jeep Wrangler market segment. Ford said it had made more than 190,000 reservations for the Bronco in the United States and Canada.

• General Motors Co: Hyundai Motor and General Motors said on Monday they are pushing ahead with developing flying cars, with the South Korean company expressing optimism it could have an air-taxi service in operation as soon as 2025. A GM executive said it could take until 2030 for air-taxi services to overcome technical and regulatory hurdles and reach commercialization.

• Johnson & Johnson: Malaysia has granted conditional approval for emergency use to the single dose COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by China's CanSino Biologics and Johnson & Johnson, the government said. Malaysia would obtain Johnson & Johnson's vaccines via the global COVAX facility backed by the World Health Organization, the health ministry said. It did not say how many doses it would procure via COVAX.

• Novavax Inc: The company said on Monday vaccine efficacy appeared to be preserved in those receiving an approved influenza vaccine along with its COVID-19 vaccine candidate compared to those receiving its COVID-19 vaccine alone. The company released the results from a sub-study it conducted as part of its late-stage clinical trial of NVX-CoV2373, its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate, in the United Kingdom. The 431 participants enrolled in the sub-study received an approved seasonal influenza vaccine with about half the participants administered NVX-CoV2373, while the rest received placebo. The company said vaccine efficacy was 87.5% compared to 89.8% in the main study.

• Oaktree Capital Group LLC: Crown Resorts said the company had offered it A$3.1 billion to buyback its founder's holding, in a deal that would give the private-equity giant a 10% stake in Crown. The latest proposal from Oaktree is for a A$2 billion private loan and a A$1.1 billion loan convertible into new shares to be issued by Crown, the company said. Oaktree's offer is slightly higher than the A$3 billion in funding it offered in April to help Crown buy back James Packer's 37% stake.

• Ryanair Holdings PLC: The airline does not support a ban on Belarusian airspace in the long term, its chief executive said and called on international authorities to secure assurances from the country that there would be no repeat of last month's forced landing. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary told a British parliamentary committee that while he supported those measures, the aviation industry depended in the long term on unrestricted access to all airspace and that this must be restored. "We need to have an outcome where the European and the UK authorities, hopefully assisted by international partners, receive appropriate assurances from the Belarusian, and or Russian authorities, that this will never happen again," he said.

• Southwest Airlines Co: The airline began resuming flight operations across the United States late on Monday after they had been delayed for hours over a technical glitch in a weather information system, the company said. "Our third-party weather data provider experienced intermittent performance issues...preventing transmission of weather information required to safely operate our aircraft," the spokesman said in the emailed statement. Several hundred flights were affected as the glitch came near the end of the operational day, he added, but did not give the exact number.

• Twitter Inc: The company introduced an "Arabic (feminine)" language setting enabling the social media site to speak to users using feminine grammar, part of what it said was an inclusion and diversity drive. "We want our service to reflect the voices that shape the conversations that take place on our service," said Rasha Fawakhiri, Twitter's communications head for the Middle East and North Africa. Twitter did not introduce a non-binary gender language option in Arabic, but Fawakhiri said the company has other gender neutral projects in the works for the site. It has plans to add a designated gender pronoun field to Twitter profiles so people can display how they prefer to be addressed.


INSIGHT
Health experts say India missed early alarm, let deadly coronavirus variant spread
A veteran public health expert warned top Indian officials in early March that a new variant of the coronavirus was spreading quickly in a rural district in the heart of the country and that the outbreak required urgent attention


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Aclaris Therapeutics Inc: Piper Sandler initiates coverage with overweight rating and target price of $30, reflecting on the company's shift from a dermatology-focused specialty pharmaceutical to a research-based discovery and development biotech with a focus on immuno-inflammatory diseases.

• Eli Lilly: JPMorgan raises target price to $260 from $240, citing conditional approval of Biogen’s aducanumab and the upcoming American Diabetes Association meeting.

• Passage Bio Inc: BTIG initiates coverage with buy rating and target price of $25, following data from three clinical programs supporting higher probability of success.

• Philip Morris International Inc: Cowen and Company raises target price to $115 from $108 after the company announced it will repurchase up to $7 billion in shares over the next three years.

• Principal Financial Group Inc: Piper Sandler cuts target price to $70 from $72, following Elliott Management's purchase of stake in the company and the upcoming investor day's focus likely to remain on the long term.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 NY Fed Manufacturing for Jun: Expected 23.00; Prior 24.30
0830 (approx.) PPI Machine Manufacturing for May: Prior 145.4
0830 (approx.) PPI final demand yy for May: Expected 6.3%; Prior 6.2%
0830 (approx.) PPI final demand mm for May: Expected 0.6%; Prior 0.6%
0830 (approx.) PPI ex-food/energy yy for May: Expected 4.8%; Prior 4.1%
0830 (approx.) PPI ex-food/energy mm for May: Expected 0.5%; Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) PPI ex food/energy/transport yy for May: Prior 4.6%
0830 (approx.) PPI ex-food/energy/transport mm for May: Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) Retail sales mm for May: Expected -0.7%; Prior 0.0%
0830 (approx.) Retail sales ex-autos mm for May: Expected 0.2%; Prior -0.8%
0830 (approx.) Retail ex-gas/autos for May: Prior -0.8%
0830 (approx.) Retail control for May: Expected -0.6%; Prior -1.5%
0830 (approx.) Retail sales YoY for May: Prior 51.22%
0915 (approx.) Industrial production mm for May: Expected 0.6%; Prior 0.7%
0915 (approx.) Capacity utilization SA for May: Expected 75.1%; Prior 74.9%
0915 (approx.) Manufacturing output mm for May: Expected 0.6%; Prior 0.4%
0915 (approx.) Industrial production YoY for May: Prior 16.49%
1000 (approx.) Business inventories mm for Apr: Expected -0.1%; Prior 0.3%
1000 (approx.) Retail inventories ex-auto rev for Apr: Prior 0.5%
1000 NAHB Housing Market Index for Jun: Expected 83; Prior 83


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Oracle Corp: Expected Q4 earnings of $1.31 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 bluebird bio Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 C4 Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 Five Below Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 Nasdaq Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 New Fortress Energy Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 American Well Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Builders FirstSource Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Nuance Communications Inc: Shareholders Meeting
1000 Romeo Power Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1030 Nextier Oilfield Solutions Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1030 PRA Health Sciences Inc: Shareholders Meeting
1100 eBay Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Groupon Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Vertiv Holdings Co: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Abcellera Biologics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Caesars Entertainment Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Codexis Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 ModivCare Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Pure Storage Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 RealReal Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 CareDx Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Square Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Western Alliance Bancorp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1330 W R Berkley Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Oxford Industries Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1430 MetLife Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1500 Pactiv Evergreen Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1600 Match Group Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1630 H & R Block Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Agenus Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1700 Oracle Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 StepStone Group Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1730 Monster Beverage Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting


EX-DIVIDENDS
Ares Management Corp: Amount $0.47
Fidelity National Financial Inc: Amount $0.36
First Financial Bankshares Inc: Amount $0.15
HCA Healthcare Inc: Amount $0.48
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co: Amount $0.12
Hillenbrand Inc: Amount $0.21
Horace Mann Educators Corp: Amount $0.31
Intercontinental Exchange Inc: Amount $0.33
Lam Research Corp: Amount $1.30
Marten Transport Ltd: Amount $0.04
Mercury General Corp: Amount $0.63
New Jersey Resources Corp: Amount $0.33
New Mountain Finance Corp: Amount $0.30
Prologis Inc: Amount $0.63
Rayonier Inc: Amount $0.27
Renasant Corp: Amount $0.22
Universal Health Realty Income Trust: Amount $0.70
Vector Group Ltd: Amount $0.20
Vistra Corp: Amount $0.15
Western Union Co: Amount $0.23
Winnebago Industries Inc: Amount $0.12
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc: Amount $0.16