Liveblog Archief woensdag 25 november 2020

TOP NEWS
• Biden to discuss coronavirus response as Thanksgiving holiday nears
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will give a speech highlighting the challenges facing Americans as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches and the nation faces a surge in coronavirus infections and a wave of unpopular health restrictions.

• India import hurdles hit Apple iPhone, Xiaomi devices from China -sources
India's tight control of quality clearances for electronic goods from China slowed the import of Apple's new iPhone model last month and held up other products made by companies like Xiaomi, according to two industry sources.

• EU fell short in vetting BlackRock for green banking rules, watchdog says
The European Commission failed to properly consider conflicts of interest when it appointed a division of BlackRock to help develop green banking rules, the European Union watchdog said.

• Improving farm economy drives up Deere earnings
Deere reported higher than expected quarterly profit as rising crop prices, aggressive government subsidy payments and replacement demand for an aging fleet lifted the demand for farm machines.

• POLL-Global stocks bull run to race on, spurred by cheap cash, vaccine hopes
The blistering rally in global stock markets is set to continue for at least six months, albeit at a shallower pace, amid hopes more cheap cash and a COVID-19 vaccine allow economies to heal and corporate earnings to recover, a Reuters poll found.


BEFORE THE BELL
Futures tracking the Dow were slightly lower, a day after the index crossed 30,000, as investors awaited a flurry of economic data including the second estimate of U.S. third-quarter GDP. European shares edged down as gains in utility and telecom sector were outweighed by losses in automobile stocks. Asian equities ended on a mixed note. The dollar index was little changed, while gold was in the positive territory. Oil rose as the market shrugged off an industry report showing U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected.


STOCKS TO WATCH

Results
• American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO). The teen apparel retailer reported an about 3% fall in third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, as store traffic slumped due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Revenue at the American Eagle label fell 11% during the quarter ended Oct. 31, while the Aerie brand recorded a revenue jump of 34%. Total revenue fell to $1.03 billion, from $1.07 billion a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, the company earned a profit of 35 cents per share in the quarter. Analysts had projected a profit of 34 cents per share.

• Deere & Co (DE). The company reported higher than expected quarterly profit as rising crop prices, aggressive government subsidy payments and replacement demand for an aging fleet lifted the demand for farm machines. The company reported earnings of $2.39 per share compared with $2.27 per share last year. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv, on average, expected quarterly earnings to decline to $1.45 per share. Deere said it expects net income of about $3.6 billion-$4.0 billion in the fiscal year 2021, higher than $3.3 billion estimated by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. "Higher crop prices and improved fundamentals are leading to renewed optimism in the agricultural sector and improving demand for farm equipment," said Chief Executive John May.

• Dell Technologies Inc (DELL). The company forecast current-quarter sales above market expectations as a pandemic-driven shift to remote work and learning powered demand for its desktops and notebooks, helping it post a surprise rise in third-quarter revenue. The company said, on an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday, that it expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise 3% to 4% sequentially, implying a range between $24.18 billion and $24.42 billion, compared with analysts' average expectation of $23.09 billion. Total revenue rose nearly 3% to $23.48 billion in the three months ended Oct. 30, while analysts had estimated a drop of 4.4% to $21.85 billion. Net income attributable to the company rose to $832 million, from $499 million a year earlier.

• Gap Inc (GPS). The apparel retailer fell short of Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit on Tuesday as a pivot to online sales fueled a surge in marketing and shipping costs, sending the apparel retailer's shares down in extended trading. The company also forecast fourth-quarter sales to be flat or slightly higher than last year, and warned of pressure on margins from elevated shipping costs, including air freight, as retailers rush to move merchandise ahead of the holiday season. Comparable sales rose 5%, trouncing the average estimate for a 0.62% fall. The company reported a net income of $95 million, or 25 cents per share, for the three months ended Oct. 31, down from a profit of $140 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected the company to earn 32 cents per share.

• Nordstrom Inc (JWN). The upscale department store said on Tuesday a 37% surge in online sales helped the company top analysts' earnings expectations and boost confidence about its holiday performance despite a more competitive, promotional playing field. Net earnings more than halved to $53 million, or 34 cents per share, while analysts on average were expecting a loss of 6 cents per share. On a conference call with analysts, company executives said they expect a percentage decline in fourth-quarter net sales in the low 20s range versus market estimates of a decline of about 11%. The company also expects shipping charges and premium holiday pay to hurt earnings. The company's net sales fell to about $3 billion in the third quarter ended Oct. 31, from $3.57 billion last year.

Deals Of The Day
• Textron Inc (TXT). The Cessna business jet maker said it has agreed to sell a portion of its flight simulation and training business to Canada's CAE for $40 million in cash. The assets being sold include Textron's flight simulator manufacturing operations in Montreal, as well as certain entities in France and Malaysia and a minority interest in a joint venture in Iceland. Textron's flight simulation and training operations in Tampa, Florida are not included in the sale, the company said. The deal is expected to close during the fourth quarter of 2020 or in early 2021.

In Other News
• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL). Google’s YouTube said on Tuesday it had barred the right-wing outlet One America News Network from posting new videos for a week after it broke the site's rules against content that claims there is a guaranteed cure for COVID-19. A spokeswoman the video-sharing platform said OAN had also been suspended from monetizing its videos due to repeated violations of the COVID-19 misinformation policy and other rules. OAN will have to reapply to be allowed to monetize again. YouTube said it has a "three-strikes policy" before an account is removed and this constituted OAN's first strike. OAN did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN). India's National Stock Exchange (NSE) privately warned Future Retail it risked regulatory action for not making timely market disclosures about efforts by Amazon.com to block a disputed asset sale, according to e-mails reviewed by Reuters. Previously unreported e-mails exchanged between the NSE and Future show the stock exchange repeatedly requested the company submit more details of the arbitration order, seeking details of possible impact on financials, lenders and the Reliance deal. On Oct. 27, NSE asked Future why it had not disclosed the commencement of the arbitration proceedings and not shared the impact of the order. Future in response said it believed a disclosure wasn't required.

• Apple Inc (AAPL). India's tight control of quality clearances for electronic goods from China slowed the import of Apple's new iPhone model last month and held up other products made by companies like Xiaomi, according to two industry sources. Applications to the quality control agency, the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), typically used to be processed within 15 days, but some are now taking up to two months or longer. When Apple's new iPhone 12 was caught in the delays, Apple India executives called on BIS to speed its approval up, giving assurances that the company would continue to expand its assembly operations in India, the two sources said. It was not clear how long the iPhone 12 application was delayed, and Apple did not respond to a request for comment. As of Wednesday, 1,080 applications to BIS for laptops, tablets and other devices were pending, with 669 of those waiting more than 20 days, according to the agency's website.

• BlackRock Inc (BLK). The European Commission failed to properly consider conflicts of interest when it appointed a division of BlackRock to help develop green banking rules, the European Union watchdog said. European Ombudsman Emily O'Reilly launched an inquiry after the EU executive in March appointed BlackRock, through the company's Financial Markets Advisory unit (FMA), to produce a study that would inform EU plans to integrate sustainability into banking prudential rules. In a decision, O'Reilly stopped short of calling for the Commission to cancel the contract, but said it should have exercised "significantly more critical scrutiny" of BlackRock's application. "Questions should have been asked about motivation, pricing strategy and whether internal measures taken by the company to prevent conflicts of interest were really adequate," she said. Change Finance called for the contract to be cancelled, and published a report with NGO Corporate Europe Observatory, which said BlackRock and industry groups it is a member of have lobbied to weaken planned EU green finance rules. A BlackRock spokesman said the Commission had already publicly stated that the technical quality of FMA’s proposal underpinned the contract win.

• Facebook Inc (FB). A South Korean agency for protecting personal information fined the social media company 6.7 billion won and sought a criminal investigation for providing users' personal information to other operators without consent. The country's Personal Information Protection Commission, launched in August this year, said in a statement it fined Facebook after a probe found that the personal information of least 3.3 million of the 18 million Facebook users in Korea were provided to operators other than Facebook without their knowledge, from May 2012 to June 2018. When someone uses another operator's service through Facebook's log-in, the personal information of the user's Facebook friends were provided to other operators without their consent, the commission said.

• FedEx Corp (FDX) & United Parcel Service Inc (UPS). Deliveries of holiday gifts purchased online at major retailers could get delayed by something far more critical - COVID-19 vaccines. FedEx and UPS could make space for those shipments on cargo planes by bumping off packages from Amazon.com, Walmart, Target and other retailers. "FedEx is prioritizing vaccines," company spokeswoman Bonny Harrison told Reuters. While vaccines could displace some FedEx Express air shipments, they will not affect the separate FedEx Ground network that depends on trucks and delivers the majority the company's holiday volume, Harrison said. UPS, without elaborating, said it is prepared for holiday and vaccine shipments.

• JD.com Inc (JD). JD Health International, a major Chinese online healthcare platform, is seeking to raise up to $3.5 billion in what is set to be Hong Kong's biggest initial public offering of the year, a term sheet showed. The deal which could value the unit of e-commerce giant JD.com at nearly $29 billion when a greenshoe option is included comes during a good year for China's healthcare platforms which have seen their popularity surge in the wake of the coronavirus. JD Health plans to sell 381.9 million shares in a range of HK$62.80 and HK$70.58, according to the term sheet. A greenshoe option to sell a further 15% of stock would take the size of the IPO up to $4 billion. According to its draft prospectus, JD Health is the largest online healthcare platform in China by revenue, logging 10.8 billion yuan last year. It had 72.5 million annual active users as of June 30 compared to 53.5 million at the same time last year.

• Moderna Inc (MRNA). Sweden's Recipharm will produce doses of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine candidate in central France, the company said, adding it had started recruiting and investing to start manufacturing. Recipharm, a contract development and manufacturing organisation (CDMO) that has four plants in France, said it had signed a letter of intent with the U.S. company and that it was expecting a final agreement to be reached next month. The doses would be produced at Recipharm's facility in Monts. Financial details were not disclosed.

• ViacomCBS Inc (VIAC). German media group Bertelsmann will acquire U.S. publisher Simon & Schuster from ViacomCBS for more than $2 billion, a source with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Bertelsmann, owner of Penguin Random House, outbid Rupert Murdoch's News Corp for the publisher of authors Dan Brown, Hillary Clinton and Stephen King that Viacom put up for sale earlier this year. Founded in 1835 as a publisher of theological texts, Bertelsmann is today a private media conglomerate that spans magazine, educational and music publishing and controls European TV group RTL. CEO Thomas Rabe is restructuring the group to reduce its exposure to declining areas such as printing, has merged its Arvato CRM customer services unit and made a string of smaller technology bets.


COLUMN
Risk pricing needs rethink into 2021: Mike Dolan
Risk gauges in financial markets may be askew as they struggle to price a potentially messy end to a truly shocking 2020 while simultaneously assuming clear blue sky on the horizon.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF). RBC raises target price to $25 from $14, citing positive third-quarter earnings and reflecting the view that the company can continue to navigate near-term headwinds, aided by a renewed focus on expense management, a liquid balance sheet, and seasoned management team.

• American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO). Jefferies raises target price to $22 from $20, saying its core business is a share gainer and a good cash flow generating asset, while Aerie is a growth vehicle which can triple revenues over the medium-term while improving margins.

• Analog Devices Inc (ADI). Jefferies raises target price to $159 from $143, based on its upbeat fourth-quarter earnings.

• Best Buy Co Inc (BBY). JPMorgan raises target price to $124 from $115, reflecting its strong third-quarter results and its key vendors' dependence on the company in the U.S. marketplace as a counterbalance to Amazon and Walmart.

• Dell Technologies Inc (DELL). JPMorgan raises target price to $85 from $80, based on its encouraging third-quarter earnings owing to record revenues, driven by work from home and remote learning.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 (approx.) Building permits number for Oct: Prior 1.545 mln
0800 (approx.) Building permits R change mm for Oct: Prior 0.0%
0830 (approx.) Corporate profits preliminary for Q3: Prior -10.7%
0830 (approx.) Durable goods for Sept: Expected 0.9%; Prior 1.9%
0830 (approx.) Durables ex-transport for Oct: Expected 0.5%; Prior 0.9%
0830 (approx.) Durables ex-defense mm for Oct: Prior 3.4%
0830 (approx.) Nondefense cap ex-air for Oct: Expected 0.5%; Prior 1.0%
0830 (approx.) GDP 2nd estimate for Q3: Expected 33.2%; Prior 33.1%
0830 (approx.) GDP sales preliminary for Q3: Prior 25.5%
0830 (approx.) GDP consumer spending preliminary for Q3: Prior 40.7%
0830 (approx.) GDP deflator preliminary for Q3: Expected 3.7%; Prior 3.7%
0830 (approx.) Core PCE prices preliminary for Q3: Expected 3.5%; Prior 3.5%
0830 (approx.) PCE prices preliminary for Q3: Prior 3.7%
0830 (approx.) Advance goods trade balance for Oct: Prior -$79.36 bln
0830 (approx.) Wholesale inventories advance for Oct: Prior 0.4%
0830 (approx.) Retail inventories ex-auto advance for Oct: Prior 1.1%
0830 Initial jobless claims: Expected 730,000; Prior 742,000
0830 Jobless claims 4-week average : Prior 742,000
0830 Continue jobless claims: Expected 6.020mln; Prior 6.372 mln
1000 (approx.) Personal income mm for Oct: Expected 0.0%; Prior 0.9%
1000 (approx.) Personal consumption real mm for Oct: Prior 1.2%
1000 (approx.) Consumption adjusted mm for Oct: Expected 0.4%; Prior 1.4%
1000 (approx.) Core PCE price index mm for Oct: Expected 0.0%; Prior 0.2%
1000 (approx.) Core PCE price index yy for Oct: Expected 1.4%; Prior 1.5%
1000 (approx.) PCE price index mm for Oct: Prior 0.2%
1000 (approx.) PCE price index yy for Oct: Prior 1.4%
1000 U Michigan sentiment final for Nov: Expected 77.0; Prior 77.0
1000 U Michigan conditions final for Nov: Prior 85.8
1000 U Michigan expectations final for Nov: Prior 71.3
1000 (approx.) U Michigan 1-year inflation final for Nov: Prior 2.8%
1000 (approx.) U Michigan 5-year inflation final for Nov: Prior 2.6%
1000 (approx.) New home sales units for Oct: Expected 0.970 mln; Prior 0.959 mln
1000 (approx.) New home sales change mm for Oct: Expected 1.5%; Prior -3.5%
1200 (approx.) Dallas Fed PCE for Oct: Prior 0.9%


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report for the day.


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1000 Deere & Co (DE). Q4 earnings conference call


EXDIVIDENDS
Flowers Foods Inc (FLO). Amount $0.20
Fortive Corp (FTV). Amount $0.07
Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc (FBHS). Amount $0.24
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (HII). Amount $1.14
Kraft Heinz Co (KHC). Amount $0.40
Nextera Energy Inc (NEE). Amount $0.35

Goedemorgen
Het valt me steeds meer op dat alles en iedereen zo bullish is, wordt en blijft. Simpele reden, er is geen alternatief, dan maar aandelen kopen ook al staan ze zo hoog, Dow breekt nieuwe mijlpaal, de Nasdaq gaat weer boven de 12.000 kijken, de SP 500 zien we opstomen tot boven de 3635 op slotbasis. De DAX bereikt de 13.300 terwijl de AEX nu net onder de 610 punten sluit met de hoogste stand sinds eind februari. Gisteren was ik 1 van de 5 gasten bij het webinar van de Slimste Belegger en ook daar was iedereen enorm optimistisch, er werden zekerheden uitgesproken over koersdoelen, Dow naar de 40.000 en hoger, de AEX 100% zeker naar de 650 en hoger, de Nasdaq naar de 15.000 en hoger ... Allemaal in 2021 dan ook nog ... Wat ik in al die jaren heb geleerd is dat er op de beurs geen zekerheden bestaan, ik zou daar mee opletten !!!

U kunt mij en dus @USMarkets uiteraard ook volgen via onze Twitter account, ga naar ... https://twitter.com/USMarkets waar ik tussentijds wat charts over de markt en sentiment plaats, ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

Trump sprak gisteren ook weer eens, hij had het niet over het uit de hand lopen van het aantal besmettingen, nee hij zei 5 keer dat hij de beste president ooit was en dat door hem de Dow Jones boven de 30.000 punten is geraakt. Verder las ik dat de Bitcoin snel naar de 100.000 dollar gaat en dat een aandeel als Tesla weer naar de 2000-2500 dollar gaat. Wat u hierboven leest is uitzonderlijk en EXTREEM gevaarlijk aan het worden. Ook de GREED and FEAR index staat nu op vrijwel het maximum, op 94% zelfs (GREED) en dat kwam ik nog niet eerder tegen. Precies hetgeen ik u laat merken, werkelijk iedereen is overdreven bullish, meestal het laatste sein dat we nu wel heel dicht bij de top staan. En dan heb ik het nog niet eens over de meerdere BUBBELS die onstaan momenteel, zelfs de Dow Transport laat dingen zien die ik amper kan volgen met het nieuwe record gisteren !!

De greed and fear meter ...

En ik zie dat er van de 30 Dow aandelen slechts 10 een nieuwe high neerzetten gisteren met de uitbraak boven de 30.000 punten. Deze keer kon de Nasdaq dus ook volgen maar deze index stond al een tijdje veel te hoog en maakt nog geen nieuwe records momenteel. We gaan vooral zien tot wat dit allemaal zal leiden, een goed gevoel heb ik zeker niet hierbij, ik zie het als extreem gevaarlijk deze ontwikkelingen en ik voel aan dat dit nog maar eens verkeerd kan gaan aflopen, zeker gezien de extreme waarnemingen op alle gebied.

Het lijkt erop dat men denkt nu er vaccins aankomen dat alles voorbij is en dat de molen meteen weer op volle toeren zal gaan draaien. Let op ik ben ook enorm blij dat we deze fase mogelijk snel kunnen afronden maar het oude normaal ligt toch nog een eindje verder weg dan velen denken. Het heeft niks te maken met het vaccin, wel met de psychologie van de mens. Dus laten we maar snel weer richting normaal gaan maar dan ook met het gedrag op de markten want dat slaat nergens op hetgeen we nu zien. Nogmaals, ongekend, onvoorzichtig en vooral onwetend en dat stoort me nog het meest, er zal op een gegeven moment weer veel worden ingeleverd en zal men inzien dat te duur kopen niet verstandig is. Soms moet je in een snel tempo een grote stap terug doen en duurt het mogelijk jaren voor je weer bent waar je was ...

Dan krijg ik vaak te horen dat ik te bearish ben, teveel heb gemist en dat het alleen maar verder omhoog zal gaan. Wel ik laat dat over me heen komen, het is niet anders, ik doe altijd mijn uiterste best en helaas kan ik me niet vinden in deze fase. Wat wel duidelijk is, ik herpak me altijd wel, dat zal in 2021 wat mij betreft niet anders worden. Sterker nog, als u mijn mening deelt dat we momenteel veel te hoog staan met de markten, dan wordt het tijd om lid te worden want zoals ik zeg, 2021 kan wel eens het beste jaar worden voor US Markets Trading ...

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we vanmorgen rond de 1.19 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie staat op 48,1 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu terugvalt tot 1800 dollar.

US Markets Trading nu voor €39 tot 1 FEBRUARI 2021:
Maak vanaf vandaag gebruik van de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 februari 2021 ... Ik blijf uiteraard zoeken naar kansen in deze markt, we hebben strategisch al wat kleine posities open staan.

Na uw inschrijving staat u meteen op de verzendlijst en ontvangt u de updates, de signalen en kunt u inloggen op onze Tradershop om alle posities LIVE te volgen.

Schrijf u in via de link: https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Tot later,

Guy Boscart

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
President-elect Joe Biden said on Tuesday the United States will be "ready to lead" again on the global stage, turning the page on Republican President Donald Trump's "America First" policies as he pledged to work together with the nation's allies.

U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in November amid a widespread resurgence in new COVID-19 infections and business restrictions, reinforcing expectations for a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Tesla blew past $500 billion in market value on Tuesday as investors snapped up its shares in the run-up to its debut in the S&P 500, extending a meteoric rally that has seen it surge over 500% this year.​


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
Rio Tinto neglected deep communications with traditional owners during China's iron ore boom, focusing instead on the technical challenges of ramping up and then shrinking its business, an executive said on Tuesday.

Germany's blue-chip DAX index is undergoing its biggest ever overhaul in the wake of the Wirecard accounting scandal.

Recent COVID-19 lockdowns mean Ryanair will fly fewer passengers than planned this winter, but vaccines should mean a "very impressive" summer and a return to pre-pandemic passenger numbers by autumn, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told Reuters.


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
Alpha Financial Markets Consulting PLC HY 2021 Earnings Call
Babcock International Group PLC HY 2021 Earnings Release
Beyond International Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Brand Architekts Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Brewin Dolphin Holdings PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
CA Immobilien Anlagen AG Q3 2020 Earnings Release
Chr Hansen Holding A/S Annual Shareholders Meeting
elexxion AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Elior Group SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Fulham Shore PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Genus PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
HanseYachts AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Immofinanz AG Q3 2020 Earnings Release
James Latham PLC HY 2021 Earnings Release
JPEL Private Equity Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Kneat.com Inc Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Mears Group PLC Shareholders Meeting
SCS Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Thor Mining PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
United Utilities Group PLC HY 2021 Earnings Call
Varengold Bank AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Virgin Money UK PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Western Selection PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)0800 (approx.) Austria Industrial Production yy for Sep: Prior -3.3%0900 Switzerland Investor Sentiment for Nov: Prior 2.31100 (approx.) France Unemployment Class-A SA for Oct: 3,606,300