Liveblog Archief donderdag 25 februari 2021

Afgelopen dinsdag zou ik terugvliegen naar Nederland. Dat feestje ging niet door en nu zit ik "gevangen" in een ver land. En het regent ook nog! Gelukkig is het dan weer wel lekker warm en zo begin ik aan de column van vandaag.

Ik pak het iets anders aan vandaag met drie aandelen en vijf grafieken. Ik ga snel aan de slag.

Ik kom even terug op de column van afgelopen dinsdag met o.a. AB Inbev. Ik schreef dat de kans op een uitbraak aan de onderzijde iets groter was dan een uitbraak aan de bovenzijde. Dat de koers zover zou vallen had ik absoluut niet verwacht, zie onderstaande grafiek:

Intraday werd de blauwe licht dalende trendlijn al getest als steun. Mocht de koers vanmiddag op deze koers of iets hoger sluiten dan verwacht ik dat er steun is gezocht op die blauwe lijn en dat we nu juist weer wat omhoog mogen gaan kijken. Houd u wel rekening met wellicht een tweede test van de blauwe lijn.

Onder de column van afgelopen dinsdag sprak lezeres Helena uit dat ze hoopvol was omdat AB Inbev aan het verduurzamen is. Alhoewel ik verduurzamen van essentieel belang acht ga ik kort schrijven hoe ik er als technisch analist over denk. Als TA'er ga ik ervan uit dat alles al in de koers zit en wat ik de laatste tijd al een aantal malen schreef: "de markt loopt zo'n 6 tot 9 maanden vooruit op de de huidige stand van zaken". Het verduurzamen zit dus momenteel al in de koers.

Ik realiseer me overigens wel dat als op één dag alle duurzame beleggingsfondsen ineens massaal AB Inbev moeten inslaan omdat ze ineens duurzaam zijn (waar wachtte dit bedrijf overigens op, het is 2021) dat het een koers opdrijvend effect kan hebben.

Ik ga nu door met de twee financials op een iets andere manier dan dat u van mij gewend bent.

Ik begin met de weekgrafiek van ING en ga daarna de daggrafiek met u bekijken.

Zoals in mijn onderstaande disclaimer staat vermeld meld ik als ik een aandeel waarover ik schrijf in de portefeuille heb. Welnu, ING zit in mijn portefeuille. Dat wil zeggen op moment van schrijven. Het zou best kunnen zijn dat de positie vandaag alweer wordt gesloten.

OK, de weekgrafiek, waarom vind ik die interessant? ING heeft een enorme daling achter de rug en dat op zich is voor mij nooit een reden te kopen. Wat ik wel zie is dat ING na de forse daling door het virus al ongeveer een jaar bezig is hogere bodems en hogere toppen neer te zetten. Dat proces bracht de financial eind januari. begin februari tot boven de rode dalende trendlijn. Dat was een belangrijk signaal.

Inmiddels is ING ook bezig de lichtblauwe horizontale weerstandslijn opwaarts aan het uitnemen. Ik weet, de week is nog niet voorbij, maar we gaan zo ook naar de ontwikkelingen op de daggrafiek kijken.

Rest mij nog te schrijven dat targets nu euro 9,76 (oranje) en euro 10,90 (rood) zijn.

Van links naar rechts kijkend op de daggrafiek is de trend stijgend. Deze maand brak ING achtereenvolgens door de rode dalende trendlijn, de top van november (zie de groene horizontale lijn) en de blauwe horizontale lijn. Inmiddels is de throwback naar de groene lijn ook al achter de rug. ING testte dus na de uitbraak de voormalige weerstand als nieuwe steun. Een lekker instapmoment.

Tenzij u een broker heeft met hele lage transactiekosten raad ik u niet aan de mogelijke rit naar de oranje lijn te bespelen. De range is te klein. Beter is te wachten totdat de oranje lijn opwaarts wordt uitgenomen voor een rit naar euro 10,90. Zie de weekgrafiek.

Kijk als laatste nog even terug naar die weekgrafiek, wat er kan gebeuren als de rode lijn mocht worden uitgenomen...

Ik ga met u naar de weekgrafiek van ABN.

De trend is dalend. Pl.s niet tegen de wind in, bad idea. Maar kijk ook naar de ontwikkelingen sinds de dreun door het virus. Stiekem worden er hogere bodems en hogere toppen neergezet.

ABNAmRo gaat wellicht in gevecht met de rode horizontale lijn over de top van november 2020. Die doet dienst als weerstand. Mocht die top worden uitgenomen, dan komt de rode dalende trendlijn in het vizier. Die zal dan rond 11 euro liggen. Dat is al een aardige beweging om van te profiteren.

Kijk als laatste welk potentieel er vrijkomt als de rode dalende trendlijn opwaarts sneuvelt: een rit naar 15 euro. In de gaten houden zeg ik!

Boven de steil stijgende blauwe trendlijn is deze financieel wellicht op weg naar die horizontale lijn op euro 9,90. Ik verwacht dat we minimaal een test van die weerstand gaan zien. Of het ook tot een uitbraak gaat komen, dat gaan we zien. Het zou me overigens verbazen als de koers boven de fel stijgende blauwe trendlijn blijft.

Houd ABN in de gaten!

Marcel Bronner is zelfstandig technisch analist en schrijft columns voor US Markets.

Hij benadert de markt op basis van technische analyse. Zijn analyses zijn geen beleggingsadvies noch een advies om te kopen of verkopen. U kunt de analyses gebruiken als één van de vele componenten om uw beslissing op te baseren.

Mocht het zo zijn dat hij schrijft over een aandeel waarin hij een positie heeft, dan meldt hij dat in die column.

TOP NEWS
• Google pledges changes to research oversight after internal revolt
Alphabet's Google will change procedures before July for reviewing its scientists' work, according to a town hall recording heard by Reuters, part of an effort to quell internal tumult over the integrity of its artificial intelligence (AI) research.

• Biden's USTR nominee Tai to explain post-Trump trade vision
Katherine Tai, President Joe Biden's nominee for U.S. trade representative, on Thursday will explain to senators her approach to competition with China, rebuilding battered American supply chains and patching up strained ties with U.S. allies.

• Pfizer-BioNTech testing booster of their COVID-19 vaccine in new trial
Pfizer and BioNTech said they are testing a third dose of their COVID-19 vaccine to better understand the immune response against new variants of the virus.

• Australian parliament passes media reforms after last-ditch changes
Australia's parliament passed a law to make Alphabet's Google and Facebook pay media companies for content on their platforms in reforms that countries such as Britain and Canada are looking to replicate.

• GameStop rally builds after puzzling ice-cream cone tweet
GameStop shares surged in early deals as amateur investors jumped back into the stock weeks after an unprecedented short squeeze triggered a 1,600% rally in the video game retailer.


BEFORE THE BELL
Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq index slipped as investors continued to rotate out of high-flying growth stocks into cyclical shares that are expected to benefit from an economic rebound. European shares rose, led by gains in banking and mining shares, while Asian equities ended in the green on hopes of a broader economic recovery. The dollar index fell after dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Oil prices advanced to reach the highest levels in more than 13 months, underpinned by a sharp drop in U.S. crude output last week due to the storm in Texas. Gold prices fell as U.S. Treasury yields continued their rally.


STOCKS TO WATCH
Results
• Anheuser Busch InBev SA: The Budweiser maker forecast "meaningfully" better 2021 earnings after sales in Brazil and Mexico and a large tax credit inflated profits of the world's largest brewer at the end of 2020. The company predicted increased drinking and higher prices as countries emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. AB InBev said earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 2.4% to $5.07 billion in the fourth quarter. That was above an average market forecast of $4.8 billion. Excluding this, the profit fall was worse than the average 1.0% decline expected in a company-compiled consensus. Overall, margins were squeezed by a shift to the higher-priced single-use cans used for at-home drinking from cheaper reusable kegs and returnable glass bottles used in bars and restaurants, as well as higher freight rates.

• Apache Corp: The U.S. oil producer reported a smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and raised its spending forecast, as commodity prices recovered from pandemic-lows. Despite the rising prices, Apache said it expects oil production to fall by a percent this year. The company raised its project spending forecast to $1.1 billion for this year as oil prices have improved since its previous outlook of keeping upstream expenses below a billion dollars. In 2020, Apache spent $988 million on upstream projects, sharply below its original estimate of as much as $1.9 billion. Apache's adjusted loss of 5 cents per share was smaller than analysts' average expectation of an 11 cents loss.

• Petroleo Brasileiro SA: Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras reported a fourth-quarter net income of 59.9 billion reais on Wednesday, a significant boost in annual and quarterly terms, due largely to the reversal of 31 billion reais in impairments. The decision to reverse a large part of an $11 billion impairment taken in May indicates that the company has significantly changed its underlying assumptions about the long-term price of crude, which is itself key for investment decisions in exploration and production. The firm said the impairment reversal was also due in part to changes in its 2021 to 2025 business strategy and unspecified revisions to its project portfolio. The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at 47 billion reais, up 41% from the previous quarter and well above the Refinitiv consensus estimate of 32.9 billion reais. The company said EBITDA was buoyed by the reversal of 13.1 billion reais in previous costs associated with its healthcare system. Excluding that cost reversal, EBITDA came in about 1 billion reais above analysts' estimates.

• Nvidia Corp: The company forecast better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter revenue, with its flagship gaming chips expected to remain in tight supply for the next several months. On a conference call with investors, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said that a global chip crunch made it hard to keep the company's flagship gaming chips introduced last fall in stock and that the chips would likely remain in tight supply through the fiscal first quarter. Kress said analysts have estimated that cryptocurrency mining contributed between $100 million and $300 million to Nvidia's sales in the fiscal fourth quarter. The company expects the new mining chips to generate about $50 million revenue in its fiscal first quarter, Kress added. The company expects first-quarter revenue of $5.30 billion, plus or minus 2%, above analysts' average estimate of $4.51 billion. Revenue in the fourth quarter rose to $5 billion from $3.11 billion a year earlier. Analysts on average were expecting $4.82 billion.

• Telefonica SA: The company has cut its dividend after reporting a 10% fall in 2020 earnings even though the Spanish telecoms group expects its business to stabilise this year. Telefonica's debt now stands at around 2.6 times 2020 operating income, and Chief Executive Jose Maria Alvarez-Pallete said "the commitment to improvement does not stop there." He said deals planned for 2021 would reduce debt by a further 9 billion euros. Earnings improved later in 2020 as the initial impact of the health crisis and lockdowns eased, but the company still calculated it had lost 977 million euros ($1.19 billion) in operating income due to lower service revenue and handset sales. Unfavourable exchange rates sheared off a further 1.2 billion euros, dragging operating income down 10% to 13.5 billion euros. Alvarez-Pallete said he was expecting revenue and OIBDA to stabilise this year, and the ratio of capital expenditure to sales to settle at 15%.

• Tenaris SA: The steel pipe maker’s shares rose after the company beat fourth-quarter earnings expectations and issued 2021 guidance that forecast a further rise in drilling activity and better prices. Sales and core profits at the company showed a gradual improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020 from earlier in the year, helping overcome some of the impact caused by the coronavirus crisis. The company posted fourth-quarter earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $192 million, down 34% compared with the same period a year earlier but up 79% on the previous quarter. Profit margins recovered to 17% in the quarter, the highest level since the third quarter of 2019. Tenaris said it expected first-quarter EBITDA to be "similar" to the previous three months, saying it would face higher costs and production losses worth about $20 million in the United States and Mexico linked to the recent gas and power shortages in Texas. Core earnings are expected to increase from the second quarter, with margins stabilising at about 20% as price increases compensate for higher raw material costs, it added.

• ViacomCBS Inc: The company said it expects to reach as many as 75 million global streaming subscribers by the end of 2024, with global streaming revenue to rise to more than $7 billion by that time. "This is a ViacomCBS that is being reimagined for a new kind of marketplace and a new kind of consumer," said Chair Shari Redstone. The company laid out plans for its Paramount+ streaming service and it is launching the service on March 4 with a $9.99 per month ad-free version and in June with a $4.99 ad-supported version. In its fourth-quarter results, ViacomCBS said it had amassed 30 million global paid subscribers to All Access and other streaming properties, including 19.2 million U.S. subscribers. Revenue rose 3% to $6.87 billion in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31. Wall Street's consensus was $6.89 billion. Net earnings attributable to ViacomCBS were $1.26 per share, compared with a loss of 49 cents per share, a year earlier. Excluding items, ViacomCBS earned $1.04 per share, slightly above estimates of $1.02.

In Other News
• ACI Worldwide Inc: The company said it has signed an agreement with hedge fund Starboard Value LP to add two new independent directors to the payments software provider's board. Starboard, which owns a 7.7% stake in ACI, had urged the company to hire advisers and consider a sale in December, two months after calling it an "attractive" takeover candidate. M&A activity in the payments sector has accelerated over the last few years as companies need scale against the backdrop of increasing complexity and technology requirements for e-commerce. ACI said on Thursday the new directors would be appointed to in March, temporarily increasing the number of directors on its board to 12.

• Alphabet Inc: Google will change procedures before July for reviewing its scientists' work, according to a town hall recording heard by Reuters, part of an effort to quell internal tumult over the integrity of its artificial intelligence (AI) research. Teams are already trialing a questionnaire that will assess projects for risk and help scientists navigate reviews, research unit Chief Operating Officer Maggie Johnson said in the meeting. This initial change will roll out by the end of the second quarter, and the majority of papers will not require extra vetting, she said. Johnson added that the AI organization is bringing in a consulting firm for a wide-ranging racial equity impact assessment. The first-of-its-kind audit for the department would lead to recommendations "that are going to be pretty hard," she said.

• Alphabet Inc & Facebook Inc: Australia's parliament passed a law to make Alphabet’s Google and Facebook pay media companies for content on their platforms in reforms that countries such as Britain and Canada are looking to replicate. "The code will ensure news media businesses are fairly remunerated for the content they generate, helping to sustain public interest journalism," Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Communications Minister Paul Fletcher said in a joint statement. The new law sets the stage for a dispute-handling process largely untested in corporate Australia, should negotiations between Big Tech and media companies fail. The revised code also allows the tech companies a longer period to cut media deals before the state intervenes. It will be reviewed within a year of taking effect, the joint statement said, but gave no start date. Separately, Facebook is exploring potential licensing agreements in the coming year with Canadian media outlets and expanding its investment in local journalism initiatives, a source familiar with the company's thinking said. Meanwhile, the Justice Department asked the judge hearing its antitrust fight with Alphabet's Google for a huge list of documents from the search and advertising giant, including some about Facebook and Google's Chrome browser, according to a court filing.

• American Airlines Group Inc, Delta Air Lines Inc, Southwest Airlines Co & United Airlines Holdings Inc: The chief executives of major U.S. airlines are set to meet virtually with two key White House advisers on Friday about efforts to reduce carbon emissions and use renewable fuels, five people briefed on the matter told Reuters. The CEOs of American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines are among those who have been invited to meet with White House National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy and economic adviser Brian Deese to discuss environmental issues related to air travel, including using greener fuels to power air travel. The White House and a spokeswoman for a group representing the airlines declined to comment.

• AT&T Inc & Fox Corp: The Ad Council launched a campaign designed to combat hesitancy about the safety of the coronavirus vaccine, blanketing messages across U.S. TV, radio, websites and social media, with a particular focus on reaching Black and Hispanic Americans, who have been hard-hit by the pandemic. The campaign, titled "It's Up To You," will feature celebrities in upcoming public service announcements produced by media partners. Actress Rosie Perez, CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta and actor and rapper Daveed Diggs will star in ads produced by AT&T's WarnerMedia. Actress Angela Bassett will appear in an ad produced by Fox, the Ad Council said.

• Bank of America Corp: The bank added new sections to its annual filing that show the growing importance of non-financial topics within the firm. For the first time, the bank created subheadings for "Diversity and Inclusion," "Fair and Equitable Compensation" and "Health and Wellness" under the business overview section. That section is usually a straightforward description of how a company makes money through its primary operations and segments. The inclusion of these topics in a place of prominence in the filing formalizes shifting priorities among executives and investors. Introspection across corporate America after the violent death of George Floyd prompted many companies to dedicate more resources towards addressing social inequality and led more institutional investors to consider the social implications of their investments. Separately, it said in a filing that its participation in government stimulus programs like the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and processing unemployment insurance has led to operational losses.

• BioNTech SE & Pfizer Inc: The company’s said they are testing a third dose of their COVID-19 vaccine to better understand the immune response against new variants of the virus. They are also in talks with regulatory authorities about testing a vaccine modified to protect specifically against the highly transmissible new variant found in South Africa and elsewhere, known as B.1.351, as a second arm of the same study. The companies believe their current two-dose vaccine will work against the South African variant as well as one found in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. But the studies will allow the vaccine makers to be prepared if and when more protection is necessary, they said. Separately, the first big real-world study of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be independently reviewed shows the shot is highly effective at preventing COVID-19, in a potentially landmark moment for countries desperate to end lockdowns and reopen economies.

• Boeing Co: The company was planning to replace engine covers on its 777 jets months before a pair of recent serious failures, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an internal Federal Aviation Administration document. The planemaker and the FAA had been discussing potential fixes for about two years, according to the Journal's report, following earlier engine failures on a 777 operated by United and a Southwest Airlines 737 jet in 2018. Boeing did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment. United, the only U.S. operator of the older PW4000-powered 777s, had temporarily grounded its fleet before the FAA announcement.

• Boeing Co, Raytheon Technologies Corp & United Airlines Holdings Inc: A United Airlines plane with a Pratt & Whitney engine that failed on Saturday had flown fewer than half the flights allowed by U.S. regulators between fan blade inspections, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. They sought anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. United declined to comment. Pratt did not respond to questions about how many engines it could inspect per month. Separately, two senior U.S. lawmakers said the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has failed to turn over a report to Congress on airline engine safety required under a 2018 law. Sam Graves, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Garret Graves, the senior Republican on the aviation subcommittee, cited Saturday's engine failure on a United Boeing 777-200 plane in urging the FAA to quickly submit the required report.

• Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras SA: Brazil's government will cut its stake in the power company to 45% from its current 61% in a planned privatization process, a senior official in the Energy Ministry told Reuters. The ministry's Energy Secretary Rodrigo Limp said the government expects its stake in Eletrobras to double in value to 60 billion reais with the share price rise that it foresees privatization will bring. A big chunk of the company's proceeds from selling shares will have to go to pay the government 25 billion reais in operating licenses for hydroelectric dams and transmission lines, Limp said. Eletrobras will still be obliged to use another 25 billion reais to subsidize power rates after 2022 with funds coming from newly signed 30-year contracts, he added. "The focus will be much more on the consumer and making investments," he said.

• Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV: The Mexican Coke bottler said on Wednesday that it had reached an agreement with Heineken over distribution in Brazil, a move that clears a significant legal hurdle for the Dutch brewer's expansion in the South American nation. The agreement is slated to be implemented in the middle of 2021, the company added in a statement, and will last through 2026. "The redesign of the distribution agreement between the Coca-Cola system and Heineken in Brazil is an important milestone," said John Santa Maria Otazua, chief executive officer of Coca-Cola Femsa. According to the terms of the deal, Heineken will begin to distribute its eponymous Heineken and Amstel beer brands via its in-house distribution channels, while the Femsa network will continue distributing the Kaiser, Bavaria and Sol brands.

• Dow Inc: The company is adjusting its carbon footprint and product slate to adapt to climate change and tap evolving consumption trends tied to the global energy transition, a senior executive said this week. Dow has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2050 by boosting the use of renewable energy, such as wind power in the southern United States, and by improving energy efficiency at its petrochemical plants, Dow's Asia Pacific President Jon Penrice told Reuters. It is also developing products that help customers cut their own emissions such as sealants that improve heating efficiencies in buildings, materials to lighten electric vehicles and make batteries more efficient, he said. "We actually see climate change as something that's very likely to happen, high probability and high impact," Penrice said.

• Exxon Mobil Corp: The oil producer’s global oil and gas reserves tumbled by a third last year as the COVID-19 pandemic slammed global oil prices and demand, the company said. The company is reeling from the sharp decline in oil demand and a series of bad bets on projects when prices were much higher. It slashed project spending by a third last year, cut jobs and added to debt to cover its dividend. Exxon's reserves are at their lowest since the merger between Exxon and Mobil in 1999 and were "a result of very low prices during 2020 and the effects of reductions in capital expenditures," the company said in a filing. Total reserves for all products fell to 15.2 billion barrels of oil and gas at the end of 2020 from 22.4 billion the year before, mostly driven by oil sands in Canada and U.S. shale gas properties, according to the filing.

• Facebook Inc & Twitter Inc: India announced new rules to regulate big social media firms, such as Facebook and Twitter, the latest effort by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to tighten control over Big Tech firms. The new measures will require big social media companies to set up a grievance redressal mechanism and appoint executives to coordinate with law enforcement, the government said in a news statement. A detailed version of the guidelines is to be published later and take effect three months after that, the government said. It did not specify the date, however. Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while Twitter declined to comment. India's rules will also require video streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime to classify content into five categories based on users' age, the government said.

• GameStop Corp: The video game retailer shares surged more than 50% in early deals as amateur investors jumped back into the stock weeks after an unprecedented short squeeze triggered a 1,600% rally in the video game retailer. The latest moves build on Wednesday's rally in GameStop and other so-called "stonks" - an intentional misspelling of "stocks" - favored by retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit's WallStreetBets. The new frenzy puzzled analysts, who had ruled out another short squeeze of the stock which had battered some hedge funds, and fueled more hype after some Twitter users pointed out a cryptic tweet of an ice-cream cone photo from activist investor Ryan Cohen - a major shareholder in GameStop and a board member.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: The bank pledged another $350 million to help grow Black, Latinx and women-owned businesses, part of a broader effort at the bank to help close the U.S. racial wealth gap. Part of the money, $42.5 million, will go to the Entrepreneurs of Color fund, which provides funds to community development financial institutions (CDFIs) for low-interest loans. These CDFIs work primarily with under-served small business owners in Washington, D.C., Chicago, Detroit and other U.S. cities. The $42.5 million commitment to the Entrepreneurs of Color fund is one of the largest contributions, and is more than the total amount of low-interest loans the fund has made in Detroit in the past 5 years. Ted Archer, executive director and head of small business and philanthropy at JPMorgan, said JPMorgan is committed to lending more to Black and minority-owned businesses. This money will help strengthen CDFIs so they also can lend to more business owners in their communities, he said.

• Moderna Inc: The biotech company said it is working with U.S. government scientists to study an experimental booster shot that targets a concerning new variant of the coronavirus, and has raised its global COVID-19 vaccine production goal for this year by 100 million doses. The U.S. biotech company has produced raw material for a booster shot aimed at addressing the virus variant first found in South Africa that may be more resistant to existing vaccines, it said. Moderna is experimenting with several potential ways to combat new variants of the virus. They include an additional booster shot that targets the variant now prevalent in South Africa and spreading globally, a combined booster shot that mixes its current COVID-19 vaccine with the experimental shot, and an extra booster shot on top of its current two-dose vaccine, the company said. The company said it is also investing in additional manufacturing capacity that should bring its 2022 global production to around 1.4 billion doses, from a previous projection of 1.2 billion.

• Tesla Inc: The carmaker has told workers it will temporarily halt some production at its car assembly plant in California, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter. Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb. 22 until March 7, according to the report. The report did not clarify the reason for the halt and Tesla could not be immediately reached for comment. It was also unclear how much volume or revenue Tesla would lose due to the production halt. The Fremont plant has an annual production capacity of 500,000 Model 3s and Model Ys combined.


FOCUS
Wanted: More high-tech manufacturing space for a global vaccine push
The number of available COVID-19 vaccine doses is steadily rising, but a shortage of physical space that meets standards for pharmaceutical manufacturing is a major bottleneck to further expansion, according to drugmakers, industry construction experts and officials involved in the U.S. vaccine program.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Caterpillar Inc: JPMorgan raises target price to $237 from $205, stating the company's growth potential in the construction, energy and mining end markets and lower fixed costs.

• Lowe's Companies Inc: RBC raises target price to $206 from $203, citing the company’s strong same-store sales in its fourth quarter and better earnings per share forecast.

• Nvidia Corp: Cowen and Company raises target price to $665 from $600, citing favourable revenue guidance for the company from its data centre and gaming segments.

• Pioneer Natural Resources Co: KeyBanc raises target price to $155 from $144, noting the company's higher free cash flow estimates for 2021 and higher volume production forecast in coming quarters.

• Royal Caribbean Group: Credit Suisse raises target price to $117 from $76, saying the company observed increased bookings, indicative of pent-up demand and higher EPS estimates.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 (approx.) Durable goods for Jan: Expected 1.1%; Prior 0.5%
0830 (approx.) Durables ex-transport for Jan: Expected 0.7%; Prior 1.1%
0830 (approx.) Durables ex-defense mm for Jan: Prior 0.8%
0830 (approx.) Nondefense cap ex-air for Jan: Expected 0.7%; Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) GDP 2nd estimate for Q4: Expected 4.2%; Prior 4.0%
0830 (approx.) GDP sales preliminary for Q4: Prior 3.0%
0830 (approx.) GDP consumer spending preliminary for Q4: Prior 2.5%
0830 (approx.) GDP deflator preliminary for Q4: Expected 2.0%; Prior 1.9%
0830 (approx.) Core PCE prices preliminary for Q4: Expected 1.4%; Prior 1.4%
0830 (approx.) PCE prices preliminary for Q4: Prior 1.5%
0830 Initial jobless claim : Expected 838,000; Prior 861,000
0830 Jobless claim 4week average : Prior 833,250
0830 Continues jobless claim : Expected 4.467mln; Prior 4.494 mln
1000 Pending Homes Index for Jan: Prior 125.5
1000 Pending sales change mm for Jan: Expected 0.0%; Prior -0.3%
1100 (approx.) KC Fed Manufacturing for Feb: Prior 22
1100 (approx.) KC Fed Composite Index for Feb: Prior 17


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Autodesk Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of $1.07 per share
Domino's Pizza Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of $3.89 per share
Edison International: Expected Q4 earnings of $1.20 per share
EOG Resources Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of 35 cents per share
ETSY Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of 59 cents per share
HP Inc: Expected Q1 earnings of 66 cents per share
Live Nation Entertainment Inc: Expected Q4 loss of $2.30 per share
Monster Beverage Corp: Expected Q4 earnings of 62 cents per share
Salesforce.Com Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of 75 cents per share
Universal Health Services Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of $2.78 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0700 MINISO Group Holding Ltd: Q2 earnings conference call
0730 Li Auto Inc.: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Best Buy Co Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 CenterPoint Energy Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 CLARIVATE PLC: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Keurig Dr Pepper Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Moderna Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Nielsen Holdings PLC: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Teleflex Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0800 Wayfair Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 ACI Worldwide Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 American Tower Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Anaplan Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 ANSYS Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Element Solutions Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 J M Smucker Co: Q3 earnings conference call
0830 Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Playtika Holding Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Plug Power Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Solarwinds Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0830 Sunnova Energy International Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 AES Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 American Electric Power Company Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Churchill Downs Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 L Brands Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 OGE Energy Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Ormat Technologies Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Quanta Services Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Stericycle Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Terminix Global Holdings Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1000 Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1000 Curtiss-Wright Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1000 Domino's Pizza Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1000 Donaldson Company Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
1030 EMCOR Group Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1100 Amedisys Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1100 Apache Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1100 Essential Utilities Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1100 PG&E Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1200 Fidelity National Financial Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1200 Public Storage: Q4 earnings conference call
1200 Sempra Energy: Q4 earnings conference call
1300 Innovative Industrial Properties Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 1Life Healthcare Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Alarm.com Holdings Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Biomarin Pharmaceutical Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Edison International: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Farfetch Ltd: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 First Solar Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Fox Factory Holding Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 HP Inc: Q1 earnings conference call
1630 ICU Medical Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Natera Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Nikola Corporation: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Rocket Companies Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 STORE Capital Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 VMware Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Workday Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1630 Zscaler Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
1700 Acceleron Pharma Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 ADT Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Airbnb Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Allogene Therapeutics Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Autodesk Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Axon Enterprise Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Beyond Meat Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Cable One Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Caesars Entertainment Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 DoorDash Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Envestnet Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 ETSY Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Fisker Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Floor & Decor Holdings Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Live Nation Entertainment Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Monster Beverage Corp: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 PagSeguro Digital Ltd: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Salesforce.Com Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Shake Shack Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Sunrun Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
1730 Carvana Co: Q4 earnings conference call
1730 Dell Technologies Inc: Q4 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
Ashland Global Holdings Inc.: Amount $0.27
Baxter International Inc: Amount $0.24
Corning Inc: Amount $0.24
Crane Co: Amount $0.43
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc: Amount $0.72
Dover Corp: Amount $0.49
Dow Inc: Amount $0.70
Estee Lauder Companies Inc: Amount $0.53
Evercore Inc: Amount $0.61
Factset Research Systems Inc: Amount $0.77
Fortive Corp: Amount $0.07
Fortune Brands Home & Security Inc: Amount $0.26
Honeywell International Inc: Amount $0.93
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc: Amount $1.14
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc: Amount $0.21
Nextera Energy Inc: Amount $0.38
RLI Corp: Amount $0.24
SL Green Realty Corp: Amount $0.30
Union Pacific Corp: Amount $0.97
Valvoline Inc: Amount $0.12
Whirlpool Corp: Amount $1.25

Goedemorgen
Op Wall Street, waar de Dow Jones weer een hoogste slotkoers ooit bereikte was het een rooskleurige dag, ook andere indices wisten te herstellen na enkele mindere tot slechte dagen. De Dow Jones klom 1,4% met een recordslot dat nu uitkomt op 31.961 punten. De Nasdaq won na enkele slechte dagen 1%. De SP 500 won met 44 punten ook fors maar kon net geen nieuw record neerzetten, de kans is wel groot dat het vandaag wel gaat gebeuren want de futures staan voorbeurs hoger. De Dow Jones future geraakt al even tot net boven de 32.000 punten vanmorgen.

Europa geraakt vanmorgen ook hoger, de DAX deed het gisteren al goed en staat vanmorgen via de futures al boven de 14.000 punten, de AEX laat voorbeurs een plus van 7 punten zien met een stand boven de 670 punten. Zijn we weer vertrokken richting de topzone en kan de DAX weer richting de recordstand? We gaan het zien in de loop van de sessie, wel geraken meerdere indices weer tot de bovenkant van de bekende WIG, alleen de Nasdaq en de Nasdaq 100 blijven achter deze keer na de grote terugval vanaf vorige week.

Wat opviel gisteren op Wall Street was dat GameStop het weer eens op de heupen kreeg met een verdubbeling van de koers, en dat nu er juist een zaak bezig is bij het Congress over de vorige gekte rondom dit aandeel. Ook viel de elektrische autobouwer Fisker op als een van de uitblinkers, het aandeel won 39% omdat de uitdager van Tesla een samenwerking aankondigde met het Taiwanese elektronicabedrijf Foxconn en dat bedrijf is vooral bekend als leverancier van Apple. Neem daarbij dat Apple bezig is met het bedenken en maken van een elektrische auto en beleggers krijgen genoeg fantasie om dan massaal in Fisker te stappen. We weten immers dat alles behoorlijk snel gaat op de markten nu ...

Technische conditie markt:
De correctie zien we momenteel vooral bij de tech aandelen en dus bij die grote 8 waar ik het steeds over heb. Daardoor valt het meteen ook op dat de correctie niet overal ofwel in de gehele breedte van de markt op gang komt want indices met de meer traditionele economie zoals de Dow Jones Industrials en de Dow Transport weten zelfs nieuwe records neer te zetten.

De sectoren die het nu plots heel goed doen zijn de Transport, de industrie aandelen, energie, vrije tijd sector, reis sector en de banken. Wat deze sectoren en indices gaan doen de komende periode valt moeilijk te zeggen, het is logisch dat de Tech even fors onderuit moest maar het blijft nu even wat moeilijk te begrijpen dat de correctie de rest van de markt (nog) niet met zich mee trekt.

Vergeet ook niet dat de retail ofwel nieuwe beleggers niet in die traditionele aandelen zitten maar juist wel in die grote winners van de afgelopen periode. Mogelijk worden er daar veel uitgeduwd de komende weken en krijgen we een soort herschikking van de markt zodat het grove gespeculeer wat tempert. Veel beleggers die al lang meelopen zijn die ongecontroleerde sprongen een beetje zat aan het worden. Hou er wel rekening mee dat er tussendoor zeker nog herstel bewegingen zullen komen zoals dat nu het geval is, denk ook aan de bekende sector rotaties.

Woensdag enkele posities goed kunnen sluiten:
Deze maand en dit jaar verloopt nog altijd naar wens, nu zelfs al voor de 3e maand op rij is er winst zodat het jaar 2021 goed verloopt (december was ook al goed). Het blijft wel moeilijk en uitdagend met de huidige markt zodat ik voorzichtig moet blijven, dat wil zeggen kleine posities en niet teveel gelijktijdig. Het is niet de bedoeling om teveel risico te nemen, we moeten de markt zo rustig mogelijk zien te benaderen en vooral kalm blijven.

De LIVEBLOG en. Twitter:
Via de LIVEBLOG en tussendoor ook via mijn Twitter account laat ik gedurende de dag ook wat grafiekjes met korte uitleg voorbij komen over de markt. Op Twitter kunt u mij volgen via @USMarkets dan kunt u deze snelle informatie die ik deel uiteraard ook inzien .... https://twitter.com/USMarkets , ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.217 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 66,55 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1792 dollar staat.

Inter Market overzicht op slotbasis ...

Wordt nu lid tot 1 MEI voor €39 (nieuwe aanbieding):
Blijven schakelen tussen long en short blijft daarbij belangrijk de komende weken. Ook deze maand komen er nog genoeg kansen. Doe nu in ieder geval mee met de proef aanbieding voor nieuwe leden, die loopt tot 1 MEI en dat met een mooie korting !! ... €39 tot 1 MEI 2021 ... en voor Polleke €49 tot 1 MEI 2021 !!!

Schrijf u in voor Systeem Trading (€39 tot 1 MEI)

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Hieronder het resultaat tot nu toe dit jaar (2021) ...

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
Amid market expectations the Fed may be forced to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, top U.S. central bankers delivered a simple message to investors fixated on rising U.S. bond yields and price risks: Do not expect any changes until the economy is clearly improving.

The Australian parliament passed a new law designed to force Alphabet's Google and Facebook to pay media companies for content used on their platforms in reforms that could be replicated in other countries.

British business and professional services firms have reported the biggest improvement in their outlook in more than five years but consumer services firms - harder hit by the coronavirus lockdown - remain downbeat, a survey showed.


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
Standard Chartered posted a 57% fall in annual profit, missing analyst estimates, on higher credit impairments due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Baker Hughes and AXA Group and 16 other companies recently quit work on Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline and will not be sanctioned, according to a document the Biden administration sent to Congress last week which was seen by Reuters.

EasyJet raised 1.2 billion euros from a seven-year bond sale on Wednesday, in a sign of investor confidence in a recovery in international travel and tourism.


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Adecco Group AG Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Aixtron SE FY 2020 Earnings Release
AMAG Austria Metall AG FY 2020 Earnings Release
Amarin Corporation PLC Q4 2020 Earnings Call
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Amigo Holdings PLC Nine Months 2021 Earnings Call
Anglo American PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Anheuser Busch Inbev NV Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Aqualisbraemar Loc ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Arkema SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
ASM International NV Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
Atresmedia Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
AXA SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
BAE Systems PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Banco Comercial Portugues SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Bank of Georgia Group PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Bayer AG Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Biocartis Group NV FY 2020 Earnings Call
Bureau Veritas SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Casino Guichard Perrachon SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Catana Group SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Catella AB Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Centrica PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Cofinimmo SA Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Dof ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Drax Group PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
Duerr AG Preliminary Q4 2020 Earnings Call
eDreams Odigeo SA Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Elekta AB Q3 2021 Earnings Release
Enad Global 7 AB Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Endo International PLC Q4 2020 Earnings Release
EVRAZ plc FY 2020 Earnings Call
Ferrovial SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
FLY Leasing Ltd Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Franchi Umberto Marmi SpA Shareholders Meeting
freenet AG Preliminary Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Genus PLC Interim 2021 Earnings Call
Getlink SE FY 2020 Earnings Call
Greencoat UK Wind PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
Grupo Catalana Occidente SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
I Grandi Viaggi SpA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SIIQ SpA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Inmobiliaria Colonial SOCIMI SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Ipsos SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Iss A/S Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Karnov Group AB Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Kaz Minerals PLC Preliminary FY 2020 Earnings Release
Kinepolis Group NV Annual Shareholders Meeting
Korian SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Krones AG Preliminary Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Lar Espana Real Estate SOCIMI SA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Matas A/S Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Melia Hotels International SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Melodyvr Group PLC Shareholders Meeting
MLP SE FY 2020 Earnings Call
MOBA Network publ AB Annual Shareholders Meeting
Modern Times Group MTG AB Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Mondi PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
Morgan Sindall Group PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
MPC Container Ships ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Muenchener Rueckversicherungs Gesellschaft AG in Muenchen Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Neinor Homes SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
NEPI Rockcastle PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
NH Hotel Group SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Novabase SGPS SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Novocure Ltd Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Obrascon Huarte Lain SA Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Panoro Energy ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Safran SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Saipem SpA FY 2020 Earnings Release
SalMar ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Release
SAS AB Q1 2021 Earnings Release
SEB SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Sedana Medical AB FY 2020 Earnings Call
Serco Group PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
SES SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Shaftesbury PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Standard Chartered PLC FY 2020 Earnings Call
Subsea 7 SA Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Takkt AG FY 2020 Earnings Call
TechnipFMC PLC Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Telefonica SA FY 2020 Earnings Call
Teleperformance SE FY 2020 Earnings Release
Tenaris SA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Ucb SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Valneva SE FY 2020 Earnings Call
Veolia Environnement SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Verona Pharma PLC Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Virgin Money UK PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Viscofan SA FY 2020 Earnings Release
Vistry Group PLC FY 2020 Earnings Release
Vow ASA Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Xplora Technologies AS Q4 2020 Earnings Release
Zytronic PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)
0530 Netherlands Manufacturing Confidence for Feb : Prior 0.6
0700 Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment for Mar : Expected -14.3; Prior -15.6
0745 France Consumer Confidence for Feb : Expected 92; Prior 92
0800 (approx.) Sweden Overall Sentiment for Feb : Prior 100.0
0800 (approx.) Sweden Consumer Confidence SA for Feb : Prior 93.1
0800 (approx.) Sweden Manufacturing Confidence for Feb : Prior 113.3
0800 (approx.) Sweden Total Industry Sentiment for Feb : Prior 96.0
0800 Austria Industrial Production yy for Dec : Prior 0.1%
0830 Sweden Household Lending Growth yy for Jan : Prior 5.4%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Broad Money for Jan : Prior 4,262,767 mln SEK
0900 Italy Manufacturing Business Confidence for Feb : Expected 96.0; Prior 95.1
0900 Italy Consumer Confidence for Feb : Expected 101.0; Prior 100.7
0930 (approx.) Portugal Business Confidence for Feb : Prior -0.70
0930 (approx.) Portugal Consumer Confidence for Feb : Prior -25.70
1000 (approx.) Euro Zone Money-M3 Annual Growth for Jan : Expected 12.5%; Prior 12.3%
1000 Euro Zone Loans to Households for Jan : Prior 3.1%
1000 Euro Zone Loans to Non-Fin for Jan : Prior 7.0%
1000 (approx.) Euro Zone Broad Money for Jan : Prior 14,521,679 mln EUR
1000 Euro Zone Economic Sentiment for Feb : Expected 92.0; Prior 91.5
1000 Euro Zone Industrial Sentiment for Feb : Expected -5.0; Prior -5.9
1000 Euro Zone Services Sentiment for Feb : Expected -18.1; Prior -17.8
1000 Euro Zone Consumer Confidence Final for Feb : Expected -14.8; Prior -14.8
1000 Euro Zone Consumer Inflation Expectations for Feb : Prior 15.4
1000 Euro Zone Selling Price Expectations for Feb : Prior 4.9
1030 Belgium CPI mm for Feb : Prior 0.44%
1030 Belgium CPI yy for Feb : Prior 0.26%
1200 (approx.) United Kingdom Steel Production for Jan : Prior 710,000