Liveblog Archief maandag 11 juli 2022

TOP NEWS
• Twitter slides after Musk's $44 billion deal falls apart
Shares of Twitter fell in premarket trading as a legal tussle between Elon Musk and the social media company is expected to take center stage after the world's richest person walked away from the $44 billion deal.

• Big U.S. banks' second quarter profits to tumble on higher bad loan reserves
Second quarter profits at big U.S. banks are expected to fall sharply from a year earlier on increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession.

• G20 watchdog to propose first global crypto rules in October
The Financial Stability Board said it would propose "robust" global rules for cryptocurrencies in October, following recent turmoil in markets that has highlighted the need to regulate the "speculative" sector.

• U.S. completes 10 airline refund probes, plans enforcement actions
The U.S. government has completed 10 airline investigations into delayed or withheld passenger refunds during the COVID-19 pandemic and will take enforcement action in coming weeks, a Transportation Department official told Reuters on Sunday.

• Binance served crypto traders in Iran for years despite U.S. sanctions, clients say
The world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, continued to process trades by clients in Iran despite U.S. sanctions and a company ban on doing business there, a Reuters investigation has found.​


BEFORE THE BELL
Wall Street futures slid as investors braced for a U.S. inflation report that could force another super-sized hike in interest rates, and the start of an earnings season in which profits will be under pressure. European shares fell, gripped by concerns over energy supply crunch. In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei closed in the green after the country's coalition government boosted its majority in the upper house of parliament in an election on Sunday, while China's stocks saw the biggest slump in 7 weeks as a rise in domestic cases of COVID-19 and concerns over policymakers exiting monetary easing dented sentiment. Gold prices weakened, while the dollar gained. Oil prices declined as markets braced for new mass COVID-19 testing in China, potentially hitting demand.


STOCKS TO WATCH
• Abbott Laboratories: The company has reopened its Sturgis, Michigan baby formula plant, which was shut last month due to heavy rains, a company spokesperson told Reuters on Saturday. Abbott resumed operations on July 1 and has started producing specialty baby formula EleCare. The company which has been at the center of a baby formula shortage in the United States had shut down the plant in February and recalled its infant formula products, including Similac, after reports of bacterial infections in babies who had consumed products made at the facility. Before the recall, Abbott controlled 40% of the infant formula market. The plant closure led to a country-wide baby formula shortage.

• Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc: The rocket engine maker has agreed to pay $9 million to resolve allegations it misrepresented its compliance with cybersecurity requirements in federal government contracts, the U.S. Justice Department said on Friday. Aerojet provides propulsion and power systems for launch vehicles, missiles and satellites and other space vehicles to the Pentagon, NASA and other federal agencies, the Justice Department said. The settlement resolves a 2015 lawsuit filed by former Aerojet employee Brian Markus under the whistleblower provisions of the False Claims Act. Markus and Aerojet reached a settlement of the case on the second day of trial in April, the Justice Department said. He will receive $2.61 million as his share of the settlement. The settlement was approved on July 5 by a U.S. District Court in California.

• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd: China has imposed fines on technology giants Alibaba and Tencent as well as a range of other firms for failing to comply with anti-monopoly rules on the disclosure of transactions, the country's market regulator said on Sunday. The State Admnistration for Market Regulation (SAMR) released a list of 28 deals that violated the rules. Five involved units of Alibaba, including a 2021 purchase of equity in its subsidiary, the Youku Tudou streaming platform. Tencent was involved in 12 of the transactions on SAMR's list.

• Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co & Wells Fargo & Co: Second quarter profits at big U.S. banks are expected to fall sharply from a year earlier on increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase will report a 25% drop in profit on Thursday, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo will show 38% and 42% profit declines, respectively on Friday, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data. Bank of America, which like its peers has big consumer and business lending franchises, is expected to show a 29% drop in profit when it reports on July 18. "Its going to be a shaky quarter for the sector," said Jason Ware, chief investment officer for Albion Financial Group, which owns shares of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Investors will want to hear executives' insights into the health of the economy and if borrowers are "more shaky now," Ware said. Banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves under an accounting standard which took effect in January 2020.

• BCE Inc: Talks between Canadian clerical workers and the telecom services provider broke down after a week of negotiations, Unifor, the nation's biggest private-sector labor union, said late on Friday. Unifor ACL, which represents the unionized workers at Bell Canada's Bell Aliant unit in four Atlantic provinces, declared an impasse on Friday after talks ended in Toronto, Unifor said. "Clerical members set a deadline when they voted to strike, and despite the clarity of workers' demands, Bell did not seriously consider the issues that matter most to its employees at the table this week," Chris MacDonald, Unifor assistant to the national president, said in a statement.

• Boeing Co: Japanese airline ANA Holdings said it had finalised an order for 20 Boeing 737 MAX jets first announced in January 2019 that also includes options for another 10 of the narrowbody type. The carrier also said it would switch two of 20 777-9 passenger planes it has on order to the 777-8F freighter model as part of efforts to expand its cargo business. The 737 MAX planes, intended to replace older 737-800 jets on domestic routes, will be delivered from the financial year starting in April 2025, the airline said in a statement. ANA did not provide the value of the deal. The order for 20 737 MAX 8 planes would be worth $2.4 billion based on Boeing's latest list prices available on its website, but airlines typically receive substantial discounts on orders.

• ConocoPhillips: The Biden administration on Friday unveiled an environmental analysis for the company's planned $6 billion Willow oil and gas project in Alaska and outlined several options for the development, including not building it at all. The release of the document has been highly anticipated by the oil and gas industry and environmental groups since last year, when a federal judge in Alaska reversed the Trump administration's approval of the massive project and said federal agencies must reconsider their environmental analysis. In the draft review, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) analyzed five potential options for the project, including ConocoPhillips' proposal to build up to five drill sites, dozens of miles of roads, seven bridges and pipelines. It also considered a scaled down version with fewer drill sites and other infrastructure that would have less of an impact on wildlife such as caribou. BLM said it will also consider not approving the project at all. The bureau will accept public comment on the alternatives for 45 days, which it will consider in its final decision. In a statement, ConocoPhillips spokesperson Dennis Nuss said Willow was "a strong example of environmentally and socially responsible development that offers extensive public benefits."

• Gold Fields Ltd & Yamana Gold Inc: South Africa's Gold Fields promised higher dividends and a Toronto Stock Exchange listing to sweeten its proposed takeover of Canada's Yamana Gold. The miner announced plans to acquire Yamana in an all-share deal valuing the Canada-listed miner at $6.7 billion on May 31, but market reaction was largely negative and Gold Fields shares plunged 20% on the day. Gold Fields CEO Chris Griffith told reporters he was "greatly encouraged" by "constructive" discussions with shareholders over the proposed deal, which the company said would create the world's fourth-largest gold producer by output. "We believe the Yamana acquisition delivers on our strategy to grow the value and quality of our portfolio, by creating a winning combination of excellent assets with complementary operational strengths," Griffith said.

• GlobalFoundries Inc & STMicroelectronics NV: The chipmakers announced plans to build a semiconductor factory in France, drawing on funding from the government, the latest move to boost output in the region. This facility, which will be next to STM's existing plant in Crolles, is targeted to reach full capacity by 2026, with up to 620,000 wafers per year of production at a size of 18-nanometers, the statement said. Those are used in automotive, internet-of-things and mobile applications. The companies did not disclose the amount of investment at the new site near the Italian and Swiss borders or how much funding the French state would provide. A person familiar with the matter said that the total investment would be about $5.7 billion. The new factory would create around 1,000 new jobs and also help STMicro reach its target to boost revenue to above $20 billion.

• Rogers Communications Inc: The telecom company said on Saturday that its services were close to fully operational after a massive outage it blamed on a router malfunction after maintenance work. The outage at one of Canada's biggest telecom operators shut banking, transport and government access for millions of people. "We now believe we’ve narrowed the cause to a network system failure following a maintenance update in our core network, which caused some of our routers to malfunction early Friday morning," Rogers' Chief Executive Officer Tony Staffieri said in a statement. The interruption, Rogers' second in 15 months, drew fury from Canadians and calls for the government to expand competition in the telecom sector.

• Shell Plc: The oil major said it has invested $38.07 million into a Brazilian preservation-focused company. Carbon credit developer Carbonext runs preservation projects across more than 4.9 million acres of the Amazon Forest that are owned by companies seeking to capitalize on the carbon market. Carbonext then generates carbon credits that can be sold. Shell will now have preferential access to the company's carbon market, although will not receive discounted prices. "Associating our company with Carbonext is an important step towards our goal of offsetting 120 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2030," Andre Araujo, Shell Brasil's president said in a note, with the company also backing a global initiative to hit net zero in emissions by 2050.

• Suncor Energy Inc: The company said on Friday its chief executive, Mark Little, has stepped down after a string of fatalities at Canada's third-largest oil producer. Little was also stepping down as president and resigning from the board effective immediately, the Calgary, Alberta-based company said in a statement. Kris Smith, the company's executive vice president of downstream will replace Little as interim CEO, while the board launches a search for a permanent replacement. Little's resignation comes a day after a worker was killed at Suncor's oil sands base plant in northern Alberta. It was the second fatality at a Suncor site this year and the thirteenth since 2014. "Suncor is committed to achieving safety and operational excellence across our business, and we must acknowledge where we have fallen short and recognize the critical need for change," board chair Michael Wilson said in a statement.

• Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson & Qualcomm Inc: The Swedish telecom equipment maker Ericsson, French aerospace group Thales and U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm plan to work jointly to develop a satellite-driven 5G network to improve terrestrial connectivity. A 5G mobile device that can connect with satellites would make communication possible from remote corners of the planet and provide a challenge to expensive satellite phones and rival broadband internet services provided by Elon Musk's Starlink. The companies will first do simulations on the ground before carrying out tests in space, Hakan Djuphammar, head of Special Projects at Ericsson's technology arm, said in an interview. "Discussions are on for testing on the International Space Station and with a few satellites," he said.

• Twitter Inc: Shares of Twitter fell in premarket trading as a legal tussle between Elon Musk and the social media company is expected to take center stage after the world's richest person walked away from the $44 billion deal. Musk, the chief executive officer of Tesla, said on Friday he was terminating his deal to buy Twitter because the company had breached multiple provisions of the merger agreement. Twitter is planning to sue Musk as early as this week and force him to complete the acquisition, people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Musk took a jab at Twitter's stance, tweeting that the legal battle would lead to the company disclosing information on bots and spam accounts in court. The series of tweets was Musk's first public response since the Friday announcement. "We believe that Elon Musk's intentions to terminate the merger are more based on the recent market sell-off than... Twitter's 'failure' to comply with his requests," Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said in a note. "In the absence of a deal, we would not be surprised to see the stock find a floor at $23.5."​


ANALYSIS
Twitter has legal edge in deal dispute with Musk
Twitter has a strong legal case against Elon Musk walking away from his $44 billion deal to acquire the U.S. social media company but could opt for a renegotiation or settlement instead of a long court fight, according to legal experts.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Ally Financial Inc: KBW cuts target price to $47 from $63, expecting that the company will not be able to secure credit until there is greater clarity around the economy.

• Bloom Energy Corp: Northland Capital initiates coverage with outperform rating, believing that the company overall fits the bill for an energy platform that is resilient, sustainable, and predictable.

• KKR & Co Inc: Piper Sandler cuts target price to $80 from $86, seeing fundraising for the company to remain at average levels in the second quarter.

• ManpowerGroup Inc: JPMorgan cuts target price to $78 from $145, expecting the company's valuation levels to not rebound towards historical norms until more economic clarity emerges, given the weakening macro backdrop.

• Nvidia Corp: Piper Sandler cuts target price to $235 from $250, based on continued issues in China and Russia, gaming laptop weakness, and consumer pressure. ​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1000 Employment Trends for June: Prior 119.77


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report for the day.​


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1100 AZZ Inc: Q1 earnings conference call
1100 Greenbrier Companies Inc: Q3 earnings conference call
1700 E2open Parent Holdings Inc: Q1 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
Delek US Holdings Inc: Amount $0.20
Glacier Bancorp Inc: Amount $0.33
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc: Amount $0.75
Oracle Corp: Amount $0.32

Goedemorgen,

De markt blijft zoeken naar richting en we zien ook afgelopen vrijdag divergentie tussen traditionele en de tech sectoren. Zo winnen de Nasdaq, de Nasdaq 100 en de SOX wat maar sluiten de S&P 500, de Dow Jones en de Dow Transport wat lager. Vanmorgen staan de futures lager zodat de kans groot is dat we de week negatief starten. De 10-jaars rente staat vanmorgen rond de 3,07% en na de duik onder de 3% vorige week zien we opnieuw een oplopende rente in de VS. De olieprijzen vallen wat terug vanmorgen, de Brent olie kost nu 105,5 dollar. Het wordt opnieuw wat zoeken maar we zitten al met wat kleine posities in de markt sinds vorige week.

Update maandag 11 juli:
Afgelopen vrijdag kregen we In Europa een sterke sessie, de DAX won 172 punten en sluit net boven de 13.000 punten (13.015), op weekbasis won de DAX 202 punten ofwel 1,6%. De AEX sluit vrijdag 2,8 punten hoger met een slot op 674 punten, op weekbasis was het resultaat bij de AEX sterk met een winst van 18,5 punten ofwel 2,8%. De Franse CAC 40 won vrijdag 0,45%, de BEL 20 sluit ook 0,45% hoger. Op weekbasis een winst van 1,7% voor de CAC 40, de BEL 20 won op weekbasis 2,1%. Hoe dan ook een redelijke goeie week wat betreft Europa maar het blijft de vraag of er nog veel meer bij zal komen nu de meeste indices een weerstand bereiken.

Op Wall Street kwam er na de cijfers over de werkgelegenheid een verdeelde sessie met een kleine plus bij de Nasdaq, de Nasdaq 100 en de SOX index maar de Dow Jones, de S&P 500 en de Dow Transport verloren wat. De Nasdaq en de Nasdaq 100 laten een winst van 0,1% zien na een behoorlijk volatiel verloop, de SOX index won 0,5%. Wel was het de 4e sessie op rij dat de tech indices positief sluiten wat het nu iets moeilijker maakt voor het vervolg. De Nasdaq en de Nasdaq 100 testen zelfs even het 50-daags gemiddelde en dat is sinds april niet meer voorgekomen.

Op weekbasis winnen de Nasdaq en de Nasdaq 100 ook ruim 4,5%. De S&P 500 won op weekbasis net geen 2% terwijl de Dow Jones op weekbasis 0,8% winst boekt. Het vervolg wordt nu hoe dan ook belangrijk wat betreft Wall Street, wat gaat er na de test van het 50-MA gebeuren met de tech indices en hoe gaat het nu verder met de Dow Jones en de S&P 500 die wat achterbleven de afgelopen tijd ten opzichte van de tech indices.

Vrijdag waren het vooral de cijfers over de werkgelegenheid in de VS die de markten in beweging brachten, eerst werden die negatief ontvangen omdat uit de cijfers blijkt dat er van afkoeling nog geen sprake is. Aan de andere kant denken beleggers nu dat door de groei van de arbeidsmarkt er nog niet echt sprake kan zijn van een nakende recessie. Het is maar de vraag hoe alles zich verder zal ontwikkelen, de ene dag is het glas halfvol, de andere keer halfleeg. We gaan het zien, in ieder geval blijft men onrustig en daaruit blijkt dat men het voorlopig even niet weet. Wel denken economen dat het sterke banenrapport de doorslag zal geven om een renteverhoging met 0,75% door te voeren later deze maand door de FED. Ook heel belangrijk daarvoor zijn de nieuwe inflatiecijfers in de VS die woensdag bekend worden gemaakt.

De signaaldiensten:
We zitten al in de markt met wat kleine posities, om mee te doen met de posities kunt u lid worden en inloggen op de website bij de Tradershop waar u dan alle details kunt zien. Wat betreft de maand JUNI hebben we opnieuw winst kunnen maken bij alle abonnementen en dat al voor de 6e maand op rij dit jaar. Meedoen met de signalen die we versturen kan door lid te worden via de Tradershop ...

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 SEPTEMBER 2022. Schrijf u nu snel in tot 1 SEPTEMBER voor €35 via de Tradershop en kies uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Marktoverzicht:
Wall Street liet wat twijfels zien vrijdag na de cijfers over de werkgelegenheid maar vooral de tech indices blijven sterk presteren en sluiten opnieuw wat hoger. De S&P 500 sluit nagenoeg vlak met 3 punten verlies, de Dow Jones sluit 0,15% lager maar blijft boven de 31.000 punten. De SOX index won vrijdag 12 punten ofwel bijna 0,5%.

Europa deed het goed met bijna 3 punten winst voor de AEX index, het slot komt nu uit op 674,22 punten. De DAX won 172 punten ofwel 1,35%, de DAX sluit wel net boven de 13.000 punten. We zien bij alle grafieken wel wat verbetering maar de onderliggende trend blijft omlaag gericht.

Dow Jones:
De Dow Jones verloor wat vrijdag maar de index blijft nog wel ruim boven de 31.000 punten op slotbasis, we zien wel weerstand nu op de grafiek door de lijn over de toppen die rond de 31.500 punten uitkomt. Iets verder zien we het 50-daags gemiddelde uitkomen rond de 31.925 punten. Rond de 31.000 punten zien we steun met later vooral de 30.600 punten als richtpunt omlaag.

Weerstand nu rond de 31.500-31.550 punten met daarboven de 31.925 punten als weerstand. Verder weerstand rond de 32.300 en de 32.500 punten. Steun nu eerst de 31.000 punten, later steun rond de 30.600-30.650 punten. Verder zien we steun rond de 30.500 en de 30.000 punten.

AEX index:
De AEX herpakt zich nog wat verder met opnieuw een wiinst van 2,8 punten om rond de 674 punten te sluiten. De vraag is nu of de index nog verder kan stijgen na de stevige rally van de afgelopen dagen? Vergeet ook niet dat de AEX vorige week dinsdag nog de 642 punten aantikte, we staan daar nu al zo'n 32 punten boven.

Steun nu eerst de 670 punten met later vooral de 660-662 en de 650-652 punten, later steun rond de 640-642 punten waar de bodem van dinsdag uitkomt. Weerstand nu eerst de 678 punten waar het 50-daags gemiddelde nu uitkomt, later zien we de 680-684 en de 690 punten als doelen omhoog mocht de markt verder doorstoten.

DAX index:
De DAX kende vrijdag een sterke sessie met een slot boven de 13.000 punten waar we nu de eerste weerstand zien uitkomen. Bij een verdere stijging weerstand rond de 13.300-13.350 punten en de 13.500 punten. De vraag is of dat er nog wel inzit deze week, de index zette afgelopen dinsdag nog een diepere bodem neer op 12.390 punten. Het zal denk ik moeilijk worden, we kunnen rondom de 13.000 punten wel eens een top neerzetten.

Steun nu de 12.850-12.900 punten, later steun rond de 12.750 punten en vooral rond de 12.500 punten met snel daaronder de bodem van vorige week dinsdag op 12.390 punten.

Nasdaq Composite:
De Nasdaq breekt nu uit boven de lijn over de toppen en bereikt daarna snel de topzone rond de 11.625-11.650 punten. Het 50-daags gemiddelde werd ook al getest afgelopen vrijdag. Een sterke beweging die ik niet zo snel en heftig had verwacht, we kijken nu uit naar de volgende weerstand die net onder de 12.000 punten uitkomt. Verder weerstand rond de 12.250 en de 12.500-12.550 punten.

Steun nu eerst de 11.500-11.550 punten, later steun rond de 11.350-11.400 punten en vooral de 11.030-11.050 punten. Verder steun rond de 10.875-10.900 punten. De Nasdaq zet zo te zien wel een hogere bodem neer deze keer.

Overzicht resultaat dit jaar (2022):
Alle signaaldiensten sluiten dit jaar al voor de 6e maand op rij met winst af. Voor de maand juli werden er al enkele posities gesloten en we zitten opnieuw in de markt met wat kleine posities. Zorg er in ieder geval voor dat u op tijd lid wordt zodat u de rest van de signalen voor de maand juli niet hoeft te missen. Er komen zeker nog genoeg kansen om wat te doen in deze markt.

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 SEPTEMBER 2022 voor €35. Ga naar onze Tradershop en kies uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en kies een abonnement.

Overzicht resultaten deze maand maart en dit jaar (2022):

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart