Liveblog Archief maandag 4 januari 2021

TOP NEWS
• UK first to roll out AstraZeneca shots in race to stem COVID surge
Britain began vaccinating its population with Oxford University and AstraZeneca's COVID-19 shot in a world first, racing to give protection to the elderly and vulnerable as a new surge of cases threatened to overwhelm hospitals.

• Ladbrokes owner says MGM's $11 billion takeover bet undervalues company
Ladbrokes owner Entain said that an $11 billion takeover approach from U.S. casino operator MGM Resorts significantly undervalued its business, as companies move to capitalise on an expected boom in U.S. sports betting.

• Factories bounce back from COVID-19 hit, tighter controls cloud outlook
Manufacturers across Europe ended 2020 on a high while Asian factory activity expanded moderately thanks to robust demand in regional giant China, surveys showed, but the prospect of tougher coronavirus curbs clouded the outlook for the recovery.

• Peugeot shareholders approve autos mega-merger with Fiat
Shareholders in Peugeot owner PSA gave the green light to the French company's merger with Fiat Chrysler, one of the last steps towards creating the world's fourth largest automaker.

• Tesla shares set to start 2021 at record high
Tesla shares were set to open at a record high after the electric-car maker reported better-than-expected vehicle deliveries in 2020, extending a rally from last year that saw the stock surge more than eight times.​


BEFORE THE BELL
Futures for Wall Street’s major indexes hit record highs and world stocks rose, as rollout of vaccines across the globe fueled expectations of a quicker global economic recovery. Increased appetite for riskier assets pushed the dollar to near mid-2018 lows, while gold surged. Oil prices rose on expectations that OPEC+ will cap production at current levels in February.


STOCKS TO WATCH
Deals Of The Day
• Centene Corp (CNC) & Magellan Health Inc (MGLN). Health insurer Centene said it would buy Magellan Health in a deal valued at $2.2 billion, including debt, to strengthen its business that provides mental health services. Centene has offered $95 per share in cash, a 14.7% premium to Magellan's Thursday close, the companies said in a joint statement. Magellan Health is a pharmacy benefits manager and provides mental health-related services. Centene said it intended to fund the cash portion of the deal through debt financing and that J.P. Morgan has provided a $2.38 billion bridge financing commitment.

• MGM Resorts International (MGM). Ladbrokes owner Entain said that an $11 billion takeover approach from U.S. casino operator MGM Resorts significantly undervalued its business, as companies move to capitalise on an expected boom in U.S. sports betting. MGM's proposed offer of 1,383 pence per Entain share implies a deal value of $11.08 billion, according to Reuters calculations, representing a 22% premium to Entain's last close. Entain shares jumped as much as 28% to an all-time high of 1,455 pence, leading gainers on the UK blue-chip index. Entain said it received multiple proposals from MGM, with the latest one being MGM's offer of 0.6 of its shares for each Entain share. Under the proposal, Entain shareholders will own about 41.5% of the enlarged MGM. Las Vegas-based MGM has indicated that a limited partial cash alternative would also be made available to Entain shareholders, the company said.​

In Other News
• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL). The internet giant's drone delivery unit Wing criticized Trump administration rules issued this week mandating broadcast-based remote identification of drones, saying they should be revised to allow for internet-based tracking. The rules eliminate requirements that drones, known formally as unmanned aerial vehicles, be connected to the internet to transmit location data but requires them to broadcast remote ID messages via radio frequency broadcast. "This approach creates barriers to compliance and will have unintended negative privacy impacts for businesses and consumers," Wing said Thursday in a blog post, adding "an observer tracking a drone can infer sensitive information about specific users, including where they visit, spend time, and live and where customers receive packages from and when." Wing called on the FAA to expand ways operators can comply with ID requirements.

• AstraZeneca Plc (AZN). Britain began vaccinating its population with Oxford University and AstraZeneca's COVID-19 shot in a world first, racing to give protection to the elderly and vulnerable as a new surge of cases threatened to overwhelm hospitals. Six hospitals in England are administering the first of around 530,000 doses Britain has ready. The programme will be expanded to hundreds of other British sites in coming days, and the government hopes it will deliver tens of millions of doses within months. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it had administered 4.2 million first doses of COVID-19 vaccines as of Saturday morning and distributed 13.07 million doses. But Israel is the world leader: more than a tenth of its population have had a vaccine and Israel is now administering more than 150,000 doses a day. India approved the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine on Sunday for emergency use. A government minister said earlier the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine had been given the green light on Friday, paving the way for a huge immunisation campaign in the world's second most populous country. Separately, South Korea is reviewing AstraZeneca's request for approval of its coronavirus vaccine, as it expands a ban on private gatherings of more than four people to the whole country with daily cases topping more than 1,000 in four days. Meanwhile, Brazil's health regulator Anvisa said late on Saturday it had approved the import of 2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, although the jab is not yet approved for use in the country.

• BioNTech SE (BNTX) & Pfizer Inc (PFE). The pharmaceutical company is working flat out with partner Pfizer to boost production of their COVID-19 vaccine, its founders said, warning there would be gaps in supply until other vaccines were rolled out. The German biotech startup has led the vaccine race but its shot has been slow to arrive in the European Union due to relatively slow approval from the bloc's health regulator and the small size of the order placed by Brussels. The delays have caused consternation in Germany, where some regions had to temporarily close vaccination centres days after the launch of an inoculation drive on Dec. 27. "At the moment it doesn't look good - a hole is appearing because there's a lack of other approved vaccines and we have to fill the gap with our own vaccine," BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin told news weekly Spiegel in an interview. In other news, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech plan to give volunteers who received a placebo in its COVID-19 vaccine trial an option to receive a first dose of the vaccine by March 1, 2021, while staying within the study.

• China Mobile Ltd (CHL), China Telecom Corp Ltd (CHA) & China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd (CHU). Shares in China's three biggest telecoms companies fell as much as 5% in Hong Kong on Monday, the first trading session since the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) said it would delist the firms in a move China branded unwise and oppressive. By the close of trade, the shares had mostly recovered. Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for China's foreign ministry, said the U.S. move was "unwise", oppressive, and reflected how "random, arbitrary and uncertain" U.S. rules can be. The American Deposit Receipts (ADRs) listed by the three companies have a combined market value of under 20 billion yuan ($3.07 billion), or 2.2% of the firms' equity, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has said. After tumbling more than 4.5% to their lowest since July 2007, China Mobile shares closed down 0.79% at HK$43.85. China Telecom closed 2.79% lower, while China Unicom ended up 0.45%, versus a 0.89% rise in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. All three firms said they had not received a delisting notification from the NYSE.

• Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL). The airline’s CEO Ed Bastian said in a memo on Friday that he continues to expect that the company will achieve positive cash flow by the spring. In his new year note to employees, Bastian said that the company will likely "experience two distinct phases during the next 12 months." The first phase will be similar to 2020, he said. "The second phase will begin only when we reach a turning point with widely available vaccinations that spur a significant return to travel, particularly business travel." Revenues at Delta, which is blocking middle seats until March 30, fell 76% to $3.1 billion in the third quarter from a year earlier. "As difficult as 2020 was, in many ways I expect the next 12 months to be even more challenging," he added.

• Deutsche Bank (DB). The bank is gaining in financial strength, putting Germany's largest lender in a position to play a leading role in European banking consolidation, CEO Christian Sewing was quoted on Sunday as saying. "We continue to do better and therefore meet the criteria to sit at the table when it comes to a possible consolidation of the European banks - and not just as a junior partner," Sewing told Welt am Sonntag in an interview. Sewing played up the bank's strategic importance for Europe's largest economy and top exporting nation, however, and said his restructuring drive was bearing fruit. Earnings and costs in its private and corporate business were absolutely on track, he added, and Deutsche's investment bank has outperformed expectations.

• Discovery Inc (DISCA). Discovery+, the new streaming service from Discovery Inc., will launch Monday in the United States on services and platforms that include Amazon Fire TV and Roku, according to a source familiar with the company - two deals that eluded streaming rivals Peacock and HBO Max at their respective launches. Discovery+ will also be available to Vodafone TV and mobile customers in 12 European markets with promotions that will vary by market, according to the source. The new service will feature an emphasis on unscripted programming and include 55,000 episodes from Discovery channels including HGTV, Food Network and Animal Planet. It will cost $4.99 per month with ads, or $6.99 per month ad-free.

• Facebook Inc (FB). The company’s chief of advertising integrity, who handled the company's ad products around sensitive subjects such as politics and coronavirus misinformation, departed this week, according to an internal company post viewed by Reuters on Friday. Rob Leathern, director of product management, said earlier this month on Facebook's internal network that he would be leaving the company on Dec. 30. His exit had not been previously reported. Leathern said in the post that he was "leaving Facebook to work on consumer privacy beyond just ads and social media," without disclosing where he was headed.

• Ford Motor Co (F). The carmaker said on Thursday it was calling off its automotive joint venture with India's Mahindra and Mahindra due to the challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The companies said in separate statements that the decision was driven by changes in the global economy over the last 15 months, causing both to reassess their capital allocation priorities. "The global economy and business environment are not the same as October last year," Ford spokesman T.R. Reid said. Asked if those vehicles were now canceled, Reid said, "At this point, there's nothing to talk about other than the joint venture isn't going to happen." Ford said its independent operations in India will continue.

• Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU). Shareholders in Peugeot owner PSA gave the green light on Monday to the French company's merger with Fiat Chrysler (FCA), one of the last steps towards creating the world's fourth largest automaker. At a special shareholder meeting, the deal to form the new company called Stellantis was first backed by top investors with double voting rights, including the Peugeot family, China's Dongfeng and the French state, via Bpifrance. All other PSA shareholders backed the deal at a second meeting held online with a 99.85% approval rate among votes cast. FCA investors are due to give their verdict later on Monday. The shareholding structure will be altered as part of the merger, and existing double voting rights - which are accrued over time and give investors more weight in decisions - will not be carried over.

• Herbalife Nutrition Ltd (HLF) & Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP). Activist investor Carl Icahn has sold more than half his stake in Herbalife Nutrition back to the company for $600 million at $48.05 a share and has given up the five seats on the firm's board held by his representatives, Herbalife said in a statement. Icahn had a 15.5% stake in Herbalife as of Sept. 30. The latest deal is expected to close by Jan. 7, after which Icahn Enterprises will hold about 8 million of Herbalife's shares, representing a stake of about 6%, the statement added. Icahn's remaining stake is worth about $400 million, according to WSJ. Icahn said that the time for activism at Herbalife "has passed".

• Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC). The company’s contract with the union at its St. Paul Park refinery in Minnesota expired at midnight on Thursday without resolution, increasing the possibility of strike action, a union official said. Nearly 200 refinery workers represented by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union voted in December to authorize a strike if they cannot reach an agreement on a new Marathon contract by the end of 2020. The Teamsters object to Marathon's proposal to replace a number of union jobs with non-union subcontractors at the 102,000 barrel per day refinery, said Scott Kroona, business agent at Teamsters Local 120. The union is weighing its options but is open to further negotiations, Kroona said. Marathon said its St. Paul Park refinery is continuing to produce transportation fuels as planned.

• Moderna Inc (MRNA). Swiss regulators have allowed contract manufacturer Lonza Group to start producing Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine at a plant in Switzerland, the SonntagsZeitung newspaper reported. "Important preparatory work is under way at the moment with the view to ramp up the production lines," it quoted a spokesman for Lonza's plant in Visp as saying. The Swiss plant has the capacity to produce 800,000 doses a day, the newspaper said, which will then be sent to a company in Spain that readies individual doses for delivery. In another news, the U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that officials were in talks with Moderna and the Food and Drug Administration about the idea. Moderna's vaccine requires two injections.

• Pinduoduo Inc (PDD). Local government officials are reviewing working conditions at Chinese e-commerce group Pinduoduo, according to a state-owned newspaper, after the death of an employee caused an outcry on social media. The labour protection department of the district in Shanghai where Pinduodouo is headquartered is looking into the company's working hours and employment contracts, according to a report in the Beijing Youth Daily on Monday. The company confirmed that a female employee collapsed while walking home from work with a colleague in the early hours of December 29. She later died in hospital, the company said in a statement. The cause of her death was not disclosed. Pinduoduo declined to comment on its work policies.​

• Roku Inc (ROKU). Quibi is in advanced talks to sell its content catalog to video-streaming device maker Roku Inc as the streaming service winds down operations, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter. Los Angeles-based Quibi, which offered entertainment and news in episodes of 10 minutes or less on mobile phones, announced its closure in October, just six months after its launch. Under the terms discussed, Roku would acquire rights to Quibi's library, the Journal said, adding that the financial terms of the deal were not disclosed and talks could still fall apart.

• Sony Corp (SNY). The company said on Friday its PlayStation 5 (PS5) console will be launched in India in coming weeks as it tries to capitalise on the pandemic-driven boom in gaming. "We are happy to announce that PS5 shall be launched in India on 2nd of February 2021," the Japanese firm tweeted from its PlayStation India Twitter handle. Preorders for PS5 will begin on Jan 12 and will be available for orders at major retailers, including Amazon and Flipkart, the tech firm said.

• Tesla Inc (TSLA). Tesla shares were set to open at a record high after the electric-car maker reported better-than-expected vehicle deliveries in 2020, extending a rally from last year that saw the stock surge more than eight times. The electric carmaker on Saturday reported better-than-expected 2020 vehicle deliveries, driven by a steady rise in electric vehicle adoption, but narrowly missed its ambitious full-year goal during a punishing year for the global auto industry. The company delivered 499,550 vehicles during 2020, above Wall Street estimates of 481,261 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data - but 450 units shy of CEO Elon Musk's target. Musk tweeted he was "proud of the Tesla team for achieving this major milestone." But some online investor accounts criticized Tesla for saying it had achieved its guidance. Palo Alto, California-based Tesla said it delivered 180,570 vehicles during the fourth quarter, a quarterly record for the electric carmaker, beating estimates of 163,628 vehicles. Separately, Tesla said on Friday it has started selling China-made Model Y sport-utility vehicles (SUV) and will deliver them to customers this month, as the U.S. electric vehicle maker expands sales in the world's biggest car market.


ANALYSIS
For Peugeot and FCA, completing their merger is just the start
When Carlos Tavares takes the wheel of a combined PSA and Fiat Chrysler this year he will quickly need to revive the carmaker's fortunes in China, rationalise a sprawling global empire and address massive overcapacity. The former rally driver has proved his mettle by turning around France's biggest carmaker but will have his work cut out once it merges with its Italian-American rival to create Stellantis - the world's fourth biggest automaker.​


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Airbnb Inc (ABNB). Jefferies initiates with buy rating and target price of $170, on a belief that the company is a best-in-class asset with a powerful brand and solid organic growth.

• CocaCola Co (KO). RBC cuts rating to sector perform from outperform, on a view that the stock’s valuation is near-full and upwards EPS revisions are unlikely over the next few quarters given the negative implications of COVID last longer than consensus assumes.

• ColgatePalmolive Co (CL): RBC cuts rating to sector perform from outperform, as they are less optimistic about the company’s upward earnings revisions due to increased competitive intensity, particularly in oral care.

• Humana Inc (HUM). RBC raises rating to outperform from sector perform, believing that the company has the best growth prospects in the near and intermediate term, and best earnings visibility in the group.

• Tesla Inc (TSLA). JPMorgan raises target price to $105 from $90, to reflect higher fourth quarter deliveries and reports of strong demand for the Model Y in China, which is also suggestive of higher future deliveries.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0945 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final for Dec: Prior 56.5
1000 Construction spending mm for Nov: Expected 0.9%; Prior 1.3%


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report.


CORPORATE EVENTS
No major events are scheduled for the day.


EXDIVIDENDS
Agilent Technologies Inc (A). Amount $0.19
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO). Amount $0.36
Dollar General Corp (DG). Amount $0.36
Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE). Amount $1.03
Helios Technologies Inc (HLIO). Amount $0.09
Main Street Capital Corp (MAIN). Amount $0.20
Old Republic International Corp (ORI). Amount $1.00
Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF). Amount $0.39

Goedemorgen
De futures beginnen positief aan het nieuwe jaar, we zien overal plussen vanmorgen met de AEX die een punt of 4-5 hoger van start wil, de DAX geraakt voorbeurs een goeie 150 punten hoger om dicht bij de recordstand te komen. Verder na de records van afgelopen donderdag zien we dat Wall Street ook weer hoger geraakt.

Waar ik op ga letten de komende dagen is wat de indices zullen doen binnen de WIG die al een geruime tijd wordt gevormd via de charts, we zitten nu natuurlijk bovenin en het is de vraag of er een uitbraak naar boven kan worden geforceerd? Dat is over het algemeen niet de verwachting maar zoiets kwam eerder ook al voor, normaal is de WIG bearish volgens de theorie alleen zit er ook de mogelijkheid bij dat we naar boven uitbreken en dan is er nog best veel ruimte om via de overdrijving nog verder door te stoten. Meestal blijft de WIG zich verder door ontwikkelen met hogere toppen en hogere bodems.

We weten ook dat er slechte dagen tussen kunnen zitten, denk aan de maandag 2 weken geleden toen de AEX heel snel terug moest tot rond de 602-603 punten na dat in het VK die nieuwe variant van het virus de kop opstak en de grenzen een paar dagen dicht gingen. We zien dan meteen dat de verkopers klaar staan om via de escape uit de markt te gaan, en dan gaat dat snel als het volume toeneemt. Verder weten we ook dat de zogenaamde nieuwe spelers alles snel weer op pakken en dan vooral op Wall Street waar de beurs een soort speelveld is geworden voor de nieuwe speculanten die men de Robin Hood's noemt. Die blijven tot over de nek in aandelen, opties en andere speculatieve producten volop gokken op nog meer, soms veel meer winst. Dat blijft een zeer gevaarlijke factor die we niet zomaar naast ons neer kunnen leggen.

De gemiddelde waardering bij de brede S&P 500 loopt snel op richting de 40 nu, dat wil zeggen dat men gemiddeld al 40 keer de winst van een bedrijf wil betalen, dat is mijn inziens gemiddeld nog NOOIT zo hoog geweest. Blijf dus alert, op een gegeven moment gaat dit verkeerd aflopen want de uitgang wordt bij een grote correctie te smal, een flessenhals zoals we dat noemen. Het gaat dan om die nieuwe speculanten die zwaar beleend in de markt zitten en onherroepelijk met MARGIN CALLS te maken gaan krijgen en dan wil ik eens zien hoe dat gaat uitpakken bij de grotere indices op Wall Street en uiteraard ook via de gehele markt. Dat is voor later, hou het in ieder geval in gedachte want dit wordt een groot probleem, het geleende geld dat in de markten zit zodat velen ongedekt speculeren en dus een zeer groot risico op zich nemen.

Goed, dat is voor een latere fase, mijn taak in 2021 wordt natuurlijk om mee te profiteren van het sentiment en me minder tegendraads op te stellen om zo een grotere beweging omlaag mee te pakken. Dat momentum komt er wel en dan zal ik nog wel tijd krijgen om eraan mee te doen. Zolang de markt omhoog wil moet ik dat zien te respecteren ook al zitten we met waarderingen die mijn inziens totaal niet kloppen gezien de geschiedenis op de markten ...

Vanaf vandaag starten we het nieuwe jaar met volle overtuiging, doe meteen in het nieuwe jaar, er loopt een aanbieding voor een proefabonnement, nu tot 1 MAART voor €39 !!!

Strategische posities:
Vorige week werden er al wat posities opgenomen voor de start van dit nieuwe jaar, die kunnen nog worden opgenomen. Als u lid wordt kunt u alles inzien via onze Tradershop op de website. We gaan in ieder geval met de markt mee en ik wil even zien hoe we deze week gaan uitkomen met de doelen die ik heb aangegeven. Wat ik wel verwacht is dat de markt volatiel zal blijven, ook dit jaar zullen we moeten schakelen tussen long en short.

Maak nu gebruik van de proef aanbieding:
Mis in ieder geval de start van 2021 niet want er komen hoe dan ook hele mooie kansen ... Via deze aanbieding ... €39 tot 1 MAART 2021 ... Polleke €49 tot 1 MAART 2021 !!!

Systeem Trading (€25 tot 1 MAART)

Index Trading (€25 tot 1 MAART)

Guy Trading (€25 tot 1 MAART)

Polleke Trading (€30 tot 1 MAART)

Aandelen portefeuille (€20 tot 1 MAART)

COMBI TRADING (€50 tot 1 MAART)

Resultaat deze maand december 2020:

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
Europe will see its biggest transfer of share trading in more than two decades when stock exchanges open for business in 2021, with Brexit shifting its centre of gravity away from London.

OPEC sees plenty of downside risks for oil markets in the first half of 2021, its secretary general said on Sunday, a day before meeting allies led by Russia to discuss output levels for February.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said the government would consider declaring a state of emergency for the Greater Tokyo metropolitan area as coronavirus cases climb and strain the country's medical system.


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
Britain will become the first country to roll out the low cost and easily transportable AstraZeneca and Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine, another step forward in the global response to the pandemic.

Shareholders in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and PSA Group are expected to approve the deal, paving the way for the $52 billion transaction to be completed by the end of March.

Deutsche Bank is gaining in financial strength, putting Germany's largest lender in a position to play a leading role in European banking consolidation, CEO Christian Sewing was quoted on Sunday as saying.


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
Fox Marble Holdings PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Peugeot SA Shareholders Meeting
Sensyne Health PLC Shareholders Meeting


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)0730 (approx.) Sweden Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Prior 59.10800 (approx.) Netherlands Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Prior 54.40800 (approx.) Austria Unemployment Number for Dec: Prior 390.9k0800 (approx.) Austria Unemployment Rate for Dec: Prior 9.5%0815 Spain Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Expected 52.8; Prior 49.80830 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Expected 54.0; Prior 55.20845 Italy Markit/IHS Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Expected 53.7; Prior 51.50850 France Markit Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Expected 51.1; Prior 51.10855 Germany Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI for Dec: Expected 58.6; Prior 58.60900 (approx.) Spain Car Registration mm for Dec: Prior 2.0%0900 (approx.) Spain Car Registration yy for Dec: Prior -18.7%0900 Euro Zone Markit Manufacturing Final PMI for Dec: Expected 55.5; Prior 55.50930 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Final PMI for Dec: Expected 57.3; Prior 57.30930 (approx.) Portugal Business Confidence for Dec: Prior -0.100930 (approx.) Portugal Consumer Confidence for Dec: Prior -26.900930 (approx.) Portugal CPI Flash mm for Dec: Prior -0.3%0930 (approx.) Portugal CPI Flash yy for Dec: Prior -0.2%0930 (approx.) Euro Zone Sentix Index for Jan: Expected 0.00; Prior -2.7