Liveblog Archief maandag 7 december 2020

TOP NEWS
• U.S. preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over Hong Kong crackdown – sources
The United States is preparing to impose sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing's disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong, according to three sources, including a U.S. official familiar with the matter.

• U.S. Congress closes in on COVID-19 aid bill as funding deadline looms
Members of the U.S. Congress are expected as early as Monday to unveil bipartisan legislation to send a long-awaited infusion of federal aid to American families and businesses reeling from the resurgent coronavirus pandemic.

• Biden picks Becerra as health secretary as he builds team to battle COVID-19
President-elect Joe Biden will nominate California Attorney General Xavier Becerra for secretary of health and human services as soon as Monday, a source familiar with the decision said, as he builds up his team to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Brexit crunch time: stand-off puts EU-UK trade deal on a knife edge
Post-Brexit trade talks hung in the balance as Britain and the European Union made a last-ditch attempt to bridge significant differences and reach a deal that would avoid a disorderly exit in just 24 days.

• Airbnb plans to raise price target range for IPO – source
Airbnb has plans to raise the target price range for its initial public offering to between $56 and $60 per share, underscoring demand for new U.S. stocks, a person familiar with the matter said on Sunday.


BEFORE THE BELL
Wall Street futures were lower on heightened U.S.-China tensions with Washington preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials according to a Reuters report. Asian shares ended mostly in the red. European stocks dropped, pressured by concerns that Brexit talks could collapse. The British pound weakened the most in three months against the dollar. Gold prices fell on optimism over this week's COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Britain. Oil prices slipped on surging coronavirus cases.


STOCKS TO WATCH
• Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI) & Netflix Inc (NFLX). Activision Blizzard sued Netflix on Friday, alleging that the video-streaming giant engaged in "unlawfully poaching" company executives, including its former finance chief, Spencer Neumann. "Netflix has a pattern and practice of unlawfully inducing employees of other competitors to breach their fixed-term contracts," Activision said in a court filing, adding that Netflix knowingly induced Neumann to breach his employment contract with Activision.

• Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) & IAC/InterActive Corp (IAC). Google said on Sunday it has removed a number of browser extensions of online conglomerate IAC/InterActive for "policy violations" and is reviewing "enforcement options." "We continue to have conversations with IAC related to Chrome Web Store policies and we have already removed a number of their extensions for violating our policies", a Google spokesman said in a statement emailed to Reuters. "We're reviewing the remaining extensions and our enforcement options, and have not made a decision regarding IAC's status on the store", the statement added.

• AstraZeneca Plc (AZN). Serum Institute of India, the world's largest producer of vaccines by volume and India's main hope of large-scale supplies, said it had lodged the first formal application for emergency use approval for AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine. Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla tweeted that the move to apply for emergency use "will save countless lives," but did not give any other details.

• Atara Biotherapeutics Inc (ATRA). Bayer has struck a deal with Atara to jointly work on Atara's CAR-T cell anti-tumour treatments, as the German group firms up its commitment to build a specialist cell and gene therapy development platform. With the agreement, the German drugmaker will get access to Atara's CAR T-cell therapy for solid tumours, ATA3271, which had shown anti-tumour activity in a pre-clinical study, as well as another treatment called ATA2271. Bayer said it would make an upfront payment of $60 million to Atara and may also pay up to $610 million upon achievement of certain milestones, as well as tiered royalties up to a low double-digit percentage of net sales.

• Capital One Financial Corp (COF). The company has barred customers using its credit cards to clear buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) debt as the transactions bear unacceptable risk, it told Reuters, making it the first to distance itself from the finance alternative. The third-largest U.S. card firm with 62 million accounts, plus more in Canada and Britain, said it would no longer allow "transactions identified as point of sale loans charged on its credit cards, regardless of the point of sale lender". "These kinds of transactions can be risky for customers and the banks that serve them," a spokeswoman said in an email.

• Deutsche Bank AG (DB). The bank is hiking its Asia profitability targets by half as the business benefits from an economic recovery and a global shift of money flows, Alexander von zur Muehlen, the board member responsible for the region said. "We are aiming for 15% return on tangible equity (RoTE) in the core bank in the region by 2022", Muehlen told Reuters in an interview published, adding that compared to 10% this year. "We are not out of the woods but we feel certain parts of Asia are ahead of Europe in terms of recovery", Muehlen said, adding that Asia - which accounts for 13% of Deutsche's group sales - has the potential to become the single biggest RoTE contributor to the core bank.

• Ford Motor Co (F). The automaker is delaying the launch of its Bronco SUV next year to the summer from the initial spring target due to coronavirus-related issues with its suppliers, a company spokesman said on Friday. "Deliveries will begin the summer rather than the spring. That's being driven by COVID-related challenges some of our suppliers are experiencing," Ford spokesman Said Deep said. The suppliers, which Ford did not identify, have had development work for tooling delayed by the pandemic, Deep said. Asked whether the launch could face further delays, Deep said Ford was monitoring the outbreak closely.

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS). The bank’s head of Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Wassim Younan, who built the company’s business in the region, is retiring after nearly three decades with the Wall Street bank, according to a memo seen by Reuters. Goldman named Fadi Abuali and Zaid Khaldi as co-chief executive officers of the bank for the MENA region, effective Jan. 1, a separate memo said.

• Mastercard Inc (MA). The company said on Sunday it was investigating allegations against Pornhub.com following a newspaper column which said many videos posted on the adult website depicted child abuse. The New York Times column, written by Nicholas Kristof, described videos on Pornhub that the author said were recordings of assaults on unconscious women and girls. "The issue is not pornography but rape. Let's agree that promoting assaults on children or on anyone without consent is unconscionable," Kristof wrote in the column published on Friday.

• Pfizer Inc (PFE) & BioNTech SE (BNTX). Britain is preparing to become the first country to roll out the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine this week, initially making the shot available at hospitals before distributing stocks to doctors' clinics, the government said on Sunday. Footage posted by the National Health Service (NHS) showed boxes containing doses of the vaccine being delivered to Croydon University Hospital in south London and being stored in a special, securely locked fridge. The first doses are set to be administered on Tuesday, with the NHS giving top priority to vaccinating the over-80s, frontline healthcare workers and care home staff and residents. Separately, Pfizer has applied for emergency use authorisation of its coronavirus vaccine in India, a top government health adviser said in a TV interview on Sunday, the first to do so in a country with the world's second-highest number of infections.

• Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA). The drugmaker has secured $515 million in funding from a local firm to double production capacity of its coronavirus vaccine, the companies said, as it expects efficacy data of its experimental shot this month. China's Sino Biopharmaceutical said a business unit will invest $515 million in Sinovac Life Sciences, a subsidiary of Sinovac, to help development and production of CoronaVac. The investment will give Sino Biopharmaceutical a 15.03% interest in Sinovac Life Sciences, Sino Biopharmaceutical said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

• SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc (SSNC). Link Administration received a higher A$3.02 billion buyout proposal from SS&C, pitting the U.S. software provider against a Carlyle Group-led consortium in the race to buy the shareholder registry firm. SS&C gave a non-binding offer of A$5.65 a share, Sydney-based Link said in a statement, a 13.9% premium to its closing price. It was 4.6% higher than the sweetened A$5.40 per share offer Link received from private equity firms Carlyle and Pacific Equity Partners. The offer price assumes that no further dividends, distributions or reductions in capital would be paid from the date of the SS&C Proposal, Link said.

• Tesla Inc (TSLA). Black employees make up just 4% of carmaker's American leadership roles and 10% of its total workforce in the country, the electric carmaker has disclosed in its first U.S. diversity report. Women comprise 17% of the company's U.S. leadership roles - directors and vice presidents - and 21% of the overall workforce, according to the report. The figures for Asian, Black and Hispanic people combined are 33% and 60%. The company noted, though, that leadership roles were a "very small cohort", or less than 0.4%, of its workforce.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL). The airlines said on Friday it was seeking shareholder approval for a rights offering as part of a plan to thwart any hostile takeover moves and preserve a $8.2 billion tax benefit. United said it had net federal operating loss carry-forwards of about $8.2 billion as of the Sept. 30 that would be at risk if the company changed ownership. Under the plan, United will issue one preferred share purchase right in the form of a dividend for each outstanding share of common stock to certain shareholders.


GRAPHIC
Pandemic's uneven march across U.S. paved way for wider outbreak
Nine months after the U.S. government declared a state of emergency to fight the coronavirus pandemic, daily deaths and new infections are breaking records, hospital capacity is more stretched than ever, and debate over the economic response has devolved into a battle over who deserves help and who doesn't.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Fidelity National Information Services (FIS). Jefferies initiates with buy rating; target price at $175, citing its global recovery gains and increased consumer spending.

• Fiserv Inc (FISV). Jefferies initiates with buy rating; target price at $135, saying there is potential for further market penetration particularly in Payments segment with expansion of capabilities from merger with First Data.

• GoPro Inc (GPRO). JPMorgan raises target price to $9 from $8, after the company announced that it sold its 40 millionth camera since 2009 which implies camera shipments may come in on the high end of fourth-quarter guidance.

• Hershey Co (HSY). JPMorgan raises target price to $160 from $142, saying the company is performing fundamentally and top line growth is likely to exceed the group average for a long time.

• Qualcomm Inc (QCOM). JPMorgan raises target price to $185 from $160, primarily on the strength of its leadership in 5G technology, including further proof of its technology leadership demonstrated through a multi-year agreement with Apple.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1000 (approx.) Employment trends for Nov: Prior 97.57
1500 Consumer credit for Oct: Expected $16.00 bln; Prior $16.21 bln


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report for the day.


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1500 Trade Desk Inc (TTD). Shareholders Meeting
1630 Coupa Software Inc (COUP). Q3 earnings conference call
1630 Healthequity Inc (HQY). Q3 earnings conference call
1630 Smartsheet Inc (SMAR). Q3 earnings conference call
1630 Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO). Q3 earnings conference call
1700 Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX). Q1 earnings conference call


EXDIVIDENDS
Citrix Systems Inc (CTXS). Amount $0.35
First American Financial Corp (FAF). Amount $0.46
Glacier Bancorp Inc (GBCI). Amount $0.30
Heartland Express Inc (HTLD). Amount $0.02
Monro Inc (MNRO). Amount $0.22
Parsley Energy Inc (PE). Amount $0.05

Wall Street sluit vrijdag op recordstanden, zowel de Dow, de SP 500 en de beide Nasdaq indices presteren het om nog een etage hoger te geraken. Dat ondanks een veel slechter banenrapport en nog wat economische data die niet aan de verwachtingen voldoen. Waar men wel naar keek was dat er opnieuw volop wordt onderhandeld over een nieuw steunpakket waar men al zo lang op wacht. Let wel, het blijft een druppel op een gloeiende plaat natuurlijk maar het is de hoop en de gedachte die de markt stuwt. Het heeft allemaal niks te maken met hoe de echte markt en dus de economie er voor staat.

Indicatie via futures en Azië:
De DAX future start 0,35% lager terwijl de AEX ongeveer 1,4 punt lager staat via de futures. De Dow future zien we 70 punten in de min terwijl SP future 10 punten lager staat, de Nasdaq future doet nog amper wat en staat vlak. In Azië vanmorgen in ieder geval winstnemingen, de Nikkei verliest 0,8% terwijl de Hang Seng index 1,3% omlaag moet, de Shanghai index in China staat 0,8% lager vanmorgen.

We zien via berichten dat diverse regio's in de VS in een lockdown moeten vanaf deze week, ook dat zal de toestand van de economie niet bevorderen mijn inziens. Als we alles samenvatten dan zien we via de cijfers vrijdag minder jobs, de corona cijfers in de VS lopen uit de hand en we zitten met die torenhoge waarderingen van de markt. De situatie waarin we zitten blijft extreem gevaarlijk en dan vooral in de VS maar aan de andere kant zitten we ook met een enorme verborgen inflatie. Een nieuwe crash sluit ik dan ook niet uit ook al krijg ik daarover vaak verwijten in mijn richting dat ik er niks van begrijp, hoe ik me verder moet verdedigen weet ik ook niet goed maar het lijkt er op dat velen (80-85%) er simpelweg compleet blind voor blijven. Later zal men er wel op terugdenken naar wat ik nu aangeef en voor waarschuw. Dat het momentum niet helemaal in orde is weet ik ook wel en juist dat is zo moeilijk om het met gezond verstand te benaderen en om iets te moeten vertellen wat voor niemand leuk is.

Hoe liep het af met bubbels in het verleden?
Hoe je het ook draait of keert, we hebben vaak genoeg gezien hoe zoiets zal eindigen, de AEX stond in 2000 ook even op 701 punten, men wacht nu al ruim 20 jaar om dat niveau opnieuw te bereiken. Toen de Nasdaq in 2000 even op 5100 stond moest die ook terug tot 1250 punten en er zijn meer voorbeelden te noemen, neem ook Japan eens erbij, in 1998 stond de Nikkei 38.000 punten, nu pas komt deze index weer op gang en staan we nog maar op 26.500 punten. Ik zie Wall Street echt niet al te ver boven die 30.000 punten doorschieten en de Nasdaq zal een zeer stevige correctie doormaken, hou het dus goed in de gaten !!

Blijf vooral op de waarderingen letten:
We moeten hier echt opletten met de markt rond deze hoge standen, de indexen staan veel te hoog gezien de PE waarde (zie tabel). Deze niveau's hebben we NOOIT eerder meegemaakt. Ook het massale koopgedrag is niet te verklaren want als men iets ziet oplopen springt men er meteen op, draait een sector dan springt men meteen in een andere en aangezien correcties niet op gang komen trekt men dan meteen ook de andere sector volop op gang dat ook daar de PE fors oploopt.

Wat ik zie is een totaal losgeslagen markt, de reactie erop zal niet onopvallend zijn alleen is het de vraag wanneer die er komt? We komen wel steeds dichter bij een keiharde top die er wel eens lang kan blijven staan. Om een en ander te rechtvaardigen, en laten we uitgaan van een PE waarde van pakweg 22-25 (al hoog) dan zal het wel echt heel goed moeten gaan volgend jaar met alles. Als dat door wat voor reden dan ook niet lukt dan loopt de bubbel in no-time leeg. Zelfs met een goeie economische fase zullen de PE waarden van de S&P 500 nog veel te hoog blijven met de koersen van nu en dat zeker bij de hoogvliegers.

Zie de tabel hieronder ... Die laat u genoeg zien !! Sinds april is de PE waarde al met maar liefst 12.5 opgelopen !!

BUBBEL aandelenmarkt duidelijk te zien:
Zelf blijf ik dus voorzichtig en bekijk de zaken zo logisch als maar kan, wat we achter de rug hebben slaat alles, ook al lijkt het allemaal zo mooi en voor sommigen niet breekbaar ofwel men verwacht geen correctie meer op de beurzen. Zelfs niet als we zien dat er een grote bubbel werd geblazen die uiteen kan spatten. Eerst maar eens zien of die extreme waarderingen stand kunnen houden en het gedrag zo is dat men alles koopt wat los en vast zit en dat ook met opties om maar een voorbeeld te geven. Zie eens die grafiek hieronder van het aantal gekochte en openstaande opties, nog NOOIT was dat zo extreem als nu.

Met andere woorden, iedereen verwacht de komende weken, maanden slapend rijk te worden. Wel ik kan u vertellen dat het zo niet werkt op de beurs, dat overdreven gedrag zal eruit moeten en vrij snel. Alles draait nu op hoop, verwachtingen en herstel maar we zijn in feite nog niet veel verder dan een tijdje geleden. Het vaccin zal een en ander makkelijker maken maar het zal nog NIET alles oplossen en dat vergeten veel beleggers en vooral nieuwe beleggers of speculanten.

Kijk, mijn verhaal is goed en te begrijpen maar de grote jongens zullen de eerste tik moeten uitdelen en dat momentum zit veel dichter dan men denkt. Hoe gekker ze worden des te meer we eruit kunnen halen en dat denk ik ook, laat ze maar doen, ons moment zit eraan te komen en we gaan dat momentum pakken !!

Zie hier de grafiek met het aantal opties dat wordt en werd gekocht, en dat over een lange periode, zo iets heb ik nog NOOIT gezien (35 jaar op de beurs bezig)

Posities en strategie:
We bouwen posities op voor als de markt grote draai er komt en ik verwacht dat we dan voor een tijdje kunnen blijven zitten. Wat betreft 2021 dan zie ik zeker genoeg mooie kansen om er wat betreft het handelen een mooi jaar van te maken ...

U kunt mij en dus @USMarkets uiteraard ook volgen via onze Twitter account, ga naar ... https://twitter.com/USMarkets waar ik tussentijds wat charts over de markt en sentiment plaats, ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.212 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie zien we op 49 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1844 dollar staat.

Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding op US Markets Trading:
Zoals ik al aangaf sta hoe dan ook klaar om me te herpakken in 2021 wat mijn jaar zal worden wat betreft Trading, lid worden is dus belangrijk om alles optimaal te volgen.

Doe nu mee via de proef aanbieding voor €39 tot 1 FEBRUARI. Dan pakt u december mee en de start van 2021 meteen ook. Polleke Trading is dan €49 ... Schrijf u vandaag nog in via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en dan staat u meteen op de lijst, en ontvangt u de updates en signalen meteen !!

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
President-elect Joe Biden has made his selections for two key public health positions, sources said on Sunday, as he prepares to take office next month as the coronavirus pandemic rages to new levels across the United States.

The United States is preparing to impose sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing's disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong, according to three sources, including a U.S. official familiar with the matter.

China's exports rose at the fastest pace since February 2018 in November, helped by strong global demand and as the factory recovery in the world's second-largest economy outpaced those of its major trading partners.


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
Britain is preparing to become the first country to roll out the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine this week, initially making the shot available at hospitals before distributing stocks to doctors' clinics, the government said on Sunday.

Lufthansa will have shed 29,000 staff by the end of the year and the German airline will cut another 10,000 jobs in its home country next year as it struggles to cope with the coronavirus, a newspaper reported on Sunday.

Buyout group EQT is selling facilities manager Apleona, a former unit of industrial services group Bilfinger, to private equity firm PAI Partners for about 1.6 billion euros, it said on Sunday.


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
Amedeo Air Four Plus Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Caleido Group SpA Shareholders Meeting
Gabelli Value Plus + Trust PLC Shareholders Meeting
Inspecs Group PLC Shareholders Meeting
Jost AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Renalytix AI PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)
0700 (approx.) Germany Industrial Output mm for Oct: Expected 1.6%; Prior 1.6%
0700 (approx.) Germany Industrial Production yy SA for Oct: Prior -7.19%
0745 (approx.) France Reserve Assets Total for Nov: Prior 1,96,617 mln EUR
0800 (approx.) Austria Wholesale Prices NSA mm for Nov: Prior 0.6%
0800 (approx.) Austria Wholesale Prices NSA yy for Nov: Prior -4.1%
0830 (approx.) United Kingdom Halifax House Prices mm for Nov: Prior 0.3%
0830 (approx.) United Kingdom Halifax House Prices yy for Nov: Prior 7.50%
0830 Sweden Current Account qq for Q3: Prior 63.2 bln SEK
0830 (approx.) Sweden New Orders Manufacturing yy for Oct: Prior -0.3%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Private Production yy for Oct: Prior -3.7%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Private Production mm for Oct: Prior 0.4%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Industrial Production Val yy for Oct: Prior -2.6%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Industrial Production Val mm for Oct: Prior -2.6%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Services Production yy for Oct: Prior -4.3%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Construction Production yy for Oct: Prior -1.2%
0830 (approx.) Sweden Construction Production mm for Oct: Prior -0.8%
0930 (approx.) Euro Zone Sentix Index for Dec: Expected -8.3; Prior -10.0​