Liveblog Archief vrijdag 15 juli 2022

TOP NEWS
• Wells Fargo profit falls on rising loan loss reserves
Wells Fargo reported a fall in second-quarter profit as the bank set aside more money to cover loans that could sour if the U.S. pandemic recovery gives way to a recession.

• BlackRock misses profit estimates as market turbulence spooks investors
BlackRock posted a bigger-than-expected fall in quarterly profit as the turmoil in the global markets shrank the world's largest asset manager's fee income.

• U.S. not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil production
The United States is not expecting Saudi Arabia to immediately boost oil production and is eyeing the outcome of the next OPEC+ meeting on Aug. 3, a U.S. official told Reuters.

• Alibaba shares post worst drop in a month after China data probe report
Shares in Alibaba fell the most in a month, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese tech giant's cloud division has been summoned by Shanghai authorities in connection with a theft of police data.

• UnitedHealth boosts 2022 profit forecast further on health services demand
UnitedHealth raised its full-year profit forecast for a second straight quarter, after strong sales at the company's Optum healthcare services unit helped it top quarterly results estimates.


BEFORE THE BELL
Wall Street futures ticked up after four consecutive days of losses caused by increasing economic concerns. Automakers and retail stocks led a rebound in European shares. Japan's Nikkei ended higher in subdued trade, led by gains in Uniqlo parent Fast Retailing and video game maker Nintendo. The dollar took a breather, while gold prices fell. Oil prices rose after a U.S. official told Reuters that an immediate Saudi oil output boost is not on the cards. U.S. retail sales and industrial output data for June are scheduled for release later in the day.


STOCKS TO WATCH

Results
• BlackRock Inc: The asset manager posted a bigger-than-expected fall in quarterly profit as the turmoil in the global markets shrank the world's largest asset manager's fee income. The current macroeconomic environment, ridden with worries of surging inflation, geopolitical turmoil and rate hikes, has only added to the pressures of fund managers, as a large part of their business is dependent on market conditions. "Investors are simultaneously navigating high inflation, rising rates and the worst start to the year for both stocks and bonds in half a century," said Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said in a statement. Revenue in the quarter for BlackRock fell 6% to $4.53 billion, while total net inflows stood at $90 billion. Adjusted profit fell to $1.12 billion, or $7.36 per share, for the three months ended June 30, from $1.61 billion, or $10.45 per share, a year earlier. Analysts on average had expected the asset manager to report a profit of $7.90 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company bought back shares worth $500 million in the quarter.

• UnitedHealth Group Inc: The healthcare company raised its full-year profit forecast for a second straight quarter, after strong sales at the company's Optum healthcare services unit helped it top quarterly results estimates.The largest U.S. healthcare company by market value offers government and employer-backed health plans, and also operates drug benefits and medical services provider Optum. The Optum unit has been helping UnitedHealth withstand volatility in its health insurance business from pandemic-induced changes in patients' use of medical services. Revenue at the unit rose 18% to $45.1 billion from a year earlier, making up more than half of the company's top line in the quarter ended June 30. UnitedHealth said it now expects 2022 adjusted profit between $21.40 and $21.90 per share, compared with $21.20 to $21.70 per share forecast earlier. Net income attributable to the company rose 18.8% to $5.07 billion in the second quarter. The company's total sales rose 12.6% to $80.33 billion, topping analysts' average estimate of $79.68 billion.

• Wells Fargo & Co: The bank reported a fall in second-quarter profit as it set aside more money to cover loans that could sour if the U.S. pandemic recovery gives way to a recession. The company bolstered its loan loss reserves by setting aside $580 million, compared with a release of $1.26 billion a year earlier, when aggressive monetary stimulus measures cushioned a blow from the pandemic and propped up the economy. The fourth-largest U.S. bank has also been in the regulators' penalty box since 2016 for governance and oversight lapses related to a series of sales and other scandals. It remains under the Federal Reserve's $1.95-trillion-asset cap, which has curtailed loan and deposit growth that Wells needs to boost interest income and cover costs. The fourth-largest U.S. lender reported a profit of $3.1 billion, or 74 cents per share, for the quarter ended June 30, compared with $6 billion, or $1.38 per share, a year earlier.

In Other News
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd: Shares in the company fell the most in a month, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese tech giant's cloud division has been summoned by Shanghai authorities in connection with a theft of police data. An anonymous hacker had earlier this month claimed to have obtained personal information of more than 1 billion Chinese residents from the Shanghai police. A dashboard for managing the database was left open on the internet for over a year without a password, which made it easy to access and retrieve its contents, the Wall Street Journal said, citing cybersecurity researchers. The report, citing sources familiar with the matter, also said that Shanghai authorities had summoned executives from the company's cloud division in relation to the data.

• Amazon.com Inc: The tech giant has started reducing the number of items it sells under its own brands amid weak sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. The company has also discussed the possibility of exiting the private-label business entirely to alleviate regulatory pressure, the report added. Amazon, however, said it has never considered closing the private label business. "We continue to invest in this area, just as our many retail competitors have done for decades and continue to do today," its spokesperson said. Separately, Amazon.com said it would recruit 4,000 workers in Britain this year, including at fulfilment centres in Wakefield and Knowsley, taking its permanent workforce to 75,000 and making it one of the country's top-10 private-sector employers.

• Aurora Acquisition Corp: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is examining whether mortgage lender Better.com and the special purpose acquisition company it has agreed to merge with, Aurora Acquisition, violated federal securities laws. In the second-quarter of 2022, Better and Aurora received voluntary requests from the regulator for some documents and information, Aurora said in a filing on Thursday. "We believe it's a routine request for information, not an inquiry," a spokesperson for Better.com said in an emailed statement. The SEC requests, cover among other things, information on the business transactions of Chief Executive Officer Vishal Garg and allegations made in a lawsuit against him filed by Sarah Pierce, Better.com's former head of sales and operations.

• McDonald's Corp: The head of the company now running the former McDonald's chain of restaurants in Russia told RBC TV that producers of French fries are refusing to supply to the country and warned that attempts to increase domestic processing are fraught with difficulties. McDonald's quit Russia after a Western backlash against Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine, which included a barrage of economic sanctions, and sold all the restaurants it owned to a local licensee in May. "What has happened now is that due to well known events many foreign companies, I would even say all major producers of fries, have refused to deliver this product to Russia," Paroev told RBC TV, a business channel, late on Thursday.

• Meta Platforms Inc: Thousands of users of Instagram on Thursday reported issues with the photo-sharing application, according to Downdetector.com. Nearly 24,000 users of Instagram were impacted by 5 pm ET, according to outage-tracking website Downdetector, which collates status reports from a number of sources in the United States. "We're aware that some people are having trouble accessing Instagram. We're working to get things back to normal and apologize for any inconvenience," a Meta spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

• Pinterest Inc: Activist investor Elliott Management has amassed a more than 9% stake in Pinterest and is in talks with the social media company, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. Elliott has told the company that it is its biggest investor, the report said. The Vanguard Group holds an 8.7% stake, according to Refinitiv data. Pinterest co-founder and former Chief Executive Ben Silbermann has a roughly 37% voting stake in the company and that could limit Elliott's ability to force changes.

• Rio Tinto Plc: The global miner warned that COVID 19-related labour shortages in the resource-rich state of Western Australia and rising inflation would impact its underlying earnings in the second half, knocking its stock lower. Rio Tinto reported misses across the board in its second-quarter update on output, but it maintained guidance on its full-year iron ore shipments at 320-335 million tonnes (Mt) as it expects its newly opened Gudai-Darri mine in the Pilbara region to continue to raise production and reach full capacity by 2023. For the second quarter, shipments rose 4.7% to 79.9 Mt, narrowly missing an RBC estimate of 80.2 Mt and a UBS estimate of 80 Mt. Rio will release its first-half financial results on July 27.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd: The chipmaker's shares jumped outperforming the broader market after it announced forecast-beating second-quarter profit, with analysts buoyant on the firm's outlook despite some downside concern. TSMC, a major Apple supplier and the world's largest contract chipmaker, posted on Thursday a 76.4% leap in profit for the April-June period of 2022, to T$237.0 billion. It said it was "highly confident" about its long-term prospects, though also signalled cooling demand from consumer electronics customers who it expects to reduce chip stockpiles over the next few quarters into 2023. Analysts at J.P. Morgan said TSMC acknowledging the downturn was a "positive start", expecting the chipmaker's stock price to move up modestly in the near term.

• Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson & Vonage Holdings Corp: Telecom firm Ericsson has received clearance from the U.S. national security panel to complete a $6.2-billion acquisition of cloud communications firm Vonage, the Swedish company said. In the largest acquisition in its history, Ericsson agreed to buy Vonage in November, seeking to diversify revenue streams and protect itself against the cyclical nature of wireless mobile spending. However, last month it said the closing of the acquisition was delayed to the end of July from the first half of the year, due to a pending investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.

• Toyota Motor Corp: The automaker unveiled four new models of its Crown range, including a sport-utility vehicle for the first time, seeking to reboot the 67-year-old brand as Japan branches out from its long love affair with sedans. The 16th generation of the Crown will be sold outside Japan for the first time in earnest, with plans to reach about 40 countries and regions. The first new model will be a crossover that will be available in Japan around this autumn. "The Crown was a symbol of Japan's affluence and Japanese pride. It was also a car that brought together Japan's world-class technology and human resources," said Toyota President Akio Toyoda during a presentation. "The new Crown is filled with such Japanese underlying strengths." The models will be released over the course of next year and a half, said Hiroki Nakajima, president of Toyota's mid-size vehicle company.

• Unilever Plc: Ben & Jerry's and its parent, consumer products company Unilever, plan to seek mediation over the disputed sale of the ice cream maker's Israeli business to a local licensee. In a letter dated Thursday, a lawyer for Ben & Jerry's said the companies wanted to "attempt to resolve their dispute through expedited formal mediation" instead of litigating, and would use "best efforts" to finish within two weeks. The letter was filed just 20 minutes before a scheduled hearing on the matter in Manhattan federal court.

• Warner Bros Discovery Inc: The media company has extended contracts of its finance and strategy chiefs, it revealed in a filing on Thursday. Chief Financial Officer Gunnar Wiedenfels will stay with the company until July 2026, whereas Chief Revenue and Strategy Officer Bruce Campbell's contract was extended to July 2025. Wiedenfels has also assumed responsibility for global enterprise tech and broadcast operations, facilities, security, and studio operations, Warner Bros said on Thursday.


ANALYSIS
Credit investors see more risk ahead as recession fears rise
Rising recessionary concerns are seeing some investors reduce risk in their credit exposure as they brace for an economic slowdown whose magnitude remains highly uncertain.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Cintas Corp: RBC cuts target price to $450 from $475, given elevated macroeconomic uncertainty.

• Conagra Brands Inc: Credit Suisse cuts target price to $35 from $36, citing the company's lowered full-year profit forecast.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: Credit Suisse cuts target price to $145 from $160, citing the company's weaker-than-expected second-quarter earnings.

• Morgan Stanley: Barclays cuts target price to $108 from $123, reflecting the company's weak second-quarter performance and increased economic uncertainty.

• PayPal Holdings Inc: RBC cuts target price to $92 from $110, saying company's results probably have been heavily impacted by forex headwinds and slowing e-commerce spending in the second quarter.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 NY Fed Manufacturing for July: Expected -2.00; Prior -1.20
0830 Import prices mm for June: Expected 0.7%; Prior 0.6%
0830 Export prices mm for June: Expected 1.2%; Prior 2.8%
0830 Import prices yy for June: Prior 11.8%
0830 Retail sales mm for June: Expected 0.8%; Prior -0.3%
0830 Retail sales ex-autos mm for June: Expected 0.6%; Prior 0.5%
0830 Retail ex gas/autos for June: Prior 0.1%
0830 Retail control for June: Expected 0.3%; Prior 0.0%
0830 Retail sales YoY for June: Prior 8.09%
0915 Industrial production mm for June: Expected 0.1%; Prior 0.2%
0915 Capacity utilization SA for June: Expected 80.6%; Prior 79.0%
0915 Manufacturing output mm for June: Expected -0.1%; Prior -0.1%
0915 Industrial production YoY for June: Prior 5.83%
1000 Business inventories mm for May: Expected 1.3%; Prior 1.2%
1000 Retail inventories ex-auto rev for May: Prior 0.8%
1000 U Mich Sentiment Preliminary for July: Expected 49.9; Prior 50.0
1000 U Mich Conditions Preliminary for July: Expected 52.5; Prior 53.8
1000 U Mich Expectations Preliminary for July: Expected 47.0; Prior 47.5
1000 U Mich 1-year inflation preliminary for July: Prior 5.3%
1000 U Mich 5-year inflation preliminary for July: Prior 3.1%


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Citigroup Inc: Expected Q2 earnings of $1.68 per share
Progressive Corp: Expected Ju earnings of 93 cents per share
State Street Corp: Expected Q2 earnings of $1.73 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 Bank of New York Mellon Corp: Q2 earnings conference call
0800 PNC Financial Services Group Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
0830 BlackRock Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
0845 UnitedHealth Group Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
0900 US Bancorp: Q2 earnings conference call
1000 Wells Fargo & Co: Q2 earnings conference call
1100 Citigroup Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
1200 State Street Corp: Q2 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
EMCOR Group Inc: Amount $0.13

Goedemorgen,

De eerste resultaten van de grote banken zijn binnen en die vallen tegen, deze sector kreeg het moeilijk op Wall Street waardoor vooral de Dow Jones en de S&P 500 opnieuw moesten inleveren. Ook de energie reuzen verloren door dat de olieprijs verder zakt. Aan de andere kant zien we winst voor de tech sectoren want de Nasdaq sluit opnieuw net in de plus terwijl de SOX index die er recent nog zo slecht bijlag weer een winst boekt van 1,9%. Toch goed opletten nu want ik voorzie dat zowel de Nasdaq en de SOX een top gaan maken de komende dagen. De Brent olie zien we rond de 99-100 dollar terwijl de 10-jaars rente terugzakt tot de 2,95%.

Wat betreft de maand juli staan we met alle abonnementen op winst na het sluiten van de short posities woensdag. Meedoen met de signalen die we versturen kan door lid te worden via de Tradershop ... Let op, er loopt nu een nieuwe aanbieding tot 1 SEPTEMBER voor €35 ...

Update vrijdag 15 juli:
Na nogmaals een volatiele sessie op Wall Street omdat beleggers steeds meer twijfelen waar we momenteel exact staan zien we verlies bij de S&P 500, de index sluit met ruim 11 punten lager (-0,3%) met een slot op 3790 punten. Ook de Dow Jones verloor 142 punten ofwel 0,45% met een slot op 30.630 punten. De tech sectoren weten zich na een slechte start terug te vechten om positief te sluiten, vooral de chip aandelen deden het goed. De Nasdaq won met 3 punten amper maar de Nasdaq 100 sluit 40 punten hoger (0,35%). Het was opnieuw de SOX index die opviel met een stevige plus, deze index won 1,9% en zet zo sinds de bodem een stevige reeks neer. De Dow Transport index verloor donderdag 0,3%.

In Europa was er opnieuw verlies over de gehele lijn, de AEX sluit ruim 6 punten lager (-0,95%) met een slot net onder de 660 punten terwijl de DAX index 237 punten (-1,85%) lager de sessie afsloot op 12.520 punten. Verder zien we dat de Franse CAC 40 index 85 punten inleveren (-1,4%) terwijl de BEL 20 een verlies van 1,35% leed. In Europa dus overal verlies waardoor de technische conditie weer verslechtert, de DAX zien we nu opnieuw dicht bij de bodemzone uitkomen.

Wat opviel was dat veel beurs strategen het vertrouwen beginnen te verliezen en zo zetten ze hun eerdere targets voor dit jaar wat betreft de S&P 500 veel lager. Zo bracht Bank of America het prijsdoel voor het einde van 2022 terug naar 3600 punten terwijl dat doel aan het begin van dit jaar nog op 4500 punten werd gezet. Ook andere analisten beginnen voorzichtig te worden en verlagen snel hun koersdoelen voor de aandelen indexen. We horen al dat de S&P 500 vanaf de top ongeveer een derde van de waarde zal verliezen als er een bodem wordt gevonden. Anderen verlagen ook hun doelstelling maar dan van veel hoger (5300) naar ook nog veel hoger dan nu (4800), als u het mij vraagt dan zie ik niet zo snel in dat de S&P 500 tot het einde van dit jaar nog zo'n 1000 punten zal oplopen maar in deze markt weten we natuurlijk nooit. Mijn motto dit jaar is, alles blijft mogelijk op de beurzen dus ook die 1000 punten erbij kunnen we niet uitsluiten ook al denk ik dat het niet zal gebeuren.

De kans op een recessie groeit wel met de dag, dat weten we en dat zien we aan de cijfers die we nu krijgen, ook bij de cijfers van de grote banken merken we verslechtering en de vooruitzichten waren ook niet goed. De FED zal opnieuw de rente fors moeten verhogen, men denkt aan zeker weer 0,75% maar we horen al geruchten dat het wel eens 1% kan worden. Wat wel opvalt is dat de ECB weer slaapt en niks doet, daardoor komt de euro-dollar verhouding nu pariteit ofwel 1 op 1. De ECB moet goed gaan opletten om niet te laat te zijn, anders zal de ECB meteen de rente met meer dan 1% moeten verhogen en dat kan als een paniekreactie worden ervaren. Ook de ECB zal de inflatie moeten aanpakken, dat kan niet anders maar hopelijk zijn ze niet te laat.

Wat betreft de signalen die ik verstuur, we zitten zonder posities maar ik merk wel dat er zich kansen gaan voordoen nog deze week of begin volgende week. De leden zullen hoe dan ook een mail en SMS krijgen om in een paar kleine posities te stappen. We moeten voorzichtig blijven bij de huidige marktsituatie, dus de posities blijven voorlopig klein.

De signaaldiensten:
We hebben de short posities deze week gesloten met een mooie winst en we zijn nu weer vrij om rustig een nieuwe keuze te maken, om mee te doen met de posities kunt u lid worden en inloggen op de website bij de Tradershop waar u dan alle details kunt zien. Wat betreft de maand JULI hebben we in ieder geval voor de 2e keer met de posities winst kunnen maken bij alle abonnementen. Meedoen met de signalen die we versturen kan door lid te worden via de Tradershop ...

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 SEPTEMBER 2022. Schrijf u nu snel in tot 1 SEPTEMBER voor €35 via de Tradershop en kies uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Marktoverzicht:
Wall Street laat wat divergentie zien, de tech indices sluiten hoger terwijl de S&P 500 en de Dow Jones met verlies sluiten. We zien wat sector rotatie tussen tech en traditioneel maar ik verwacht dat het opnieuw tijdelijk zal zijn. Bij divergenties laten beleggers merken dat ze het even niet meer weten, dan springen ze van sector naar sector. De Nasdaq sluit met een minimale plus, de Dow Jones verloor 143 punten terwijl de S&P 500 met 11 punten verlies sluit.

Europa kende ook een negatieve sessie, de AEX verloor ruim 6 punten terwijl de DAX met 236 punten verlies de sessie afsloot. De DAX komt zo heel dicht bij de bodemzone en dat is geen goed teken. Let ook op met de AEX nu, de index zakt nu ook snel terug richting de belangrijke 650-655 punten.

Dow Jones:
De Dow Jones verloor opnieuw en zocht zelfs even de 30.000-30.100 punten zone op met een laagste stand op 30.144 punten. Het ziet er in ieder geval niet goed uit voor het vervolg want zodra de Dow Jones onder de 30.500 punten sluit verwacht ik een nieuwe test van de bodemzone onder de 30.000 punten.

Weerstand nu eerst rond de 31.000 punten, later de 31.500-31.550 punten met daarboven de 31.730 punten als weerstand (50-MA). Verder weerstand rond de 32.300 en de 32.500 punten. Steun nu eerst de 30.600-30.650 punten, later steun rond de 30.500 en de 30.000 punten.

AEX index:
De AEX verloor opnieuw en deze keer ruim 6 punten met een slot op 659,7 punten, zo blijft de index nog steeds binnen de range 660-672 punten al is het maar nipt. Toch zette de AEX opnieuw een diepere bodem neer op 654,6 punten, de komende sessies blijven dus belangrijk voor het vervolg want als de AEX ruim onder de 660 en zeker onder de 655 punten zakt dan kan de index verder terug richting de bodemzone.

Steun nu eerst de 660-662 met snel daaronder de 650-652 punten, later steun rond de 640-642 punten waar de bodem van vorige week dinsdag uitkomt. Weerstand nu eerst de 670-672 punten met snel daarboven de 676 punten waar het 50-daags gemiddelde nu uitkomt.

DAX index:
De DAX krijgt het nu behoorlijk moeilijk nu er opnieuw een fors verlies werd geleden, de index sluit nog net boven de 12.500 punten. Zo te zien ligt de weg nu helemaal open tot de bodemzone die uitkomt rondom de 12.390 punten.

Steun nu rond de 12.500 punten met snel daaronder de bodem van vorige week dinsdag op 12.390 punten. Weerstand nu eerst de 12.750 punten met later vooral de 13.000-13.050 punten, later weerstand rond de 13.300-13.350 punten.

Nasdaq Composite:
De Nasdaq begon opnieuw slecht en kwam zelfs even een fractie lager uit dan de bodem van woensdag, toch herpakte de index zich weer sterk om net in de plus te eindigen.

Weerstand blijft eerst de 11.500 punten met daar snel boven de 11.600-11.625 punten. Later weerstand rond de 11.800 en de 11.900 punten. Steun nu eerst rond de 11.250 punten, later zien we de 11.030-11.050 punten als een zeer belangrijke steun en de index bereikte deze zone donderdag al even. Onder de 11.030 punten kan de index weer terug richting de 10.800 en de bodemzone rond de 10.600 punten.

Overzicht resultaat dit jaar (2022):
Alle signaaldiensten sluiten dit jaar al voor de 6e maand op rij met winst af. Voor de maand juli werden er al wat posities gesloten en we zoeken naar een nieuw momentum om in te stappen met wat kleine posities. Zorg er in ieder geval voor dat u op tijd lid wordt zodat u de rest van de signalen voor de maand juli niet hoeft te missen. Er komen zeker nog genoeg kansen om wat te doen in deze markt.

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 SEPTEMBER 2022 voor €35. Ga naar onze Tradershop en kies uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en kies een abonnement.

Overzicht resultaten deze maand maart en dit jaar (2022):

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart