Liveblog Archief vrijdag 8 januari 2021

TOP NEWS
• Democrats inch toward second Trump impeachment after Capitol siege
Congressional Democrats weighed impeaching President Donald Trump for a second time, two days after his false claims of election fraud helped encourage a mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol.

• Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine appears effective against mutation in new coronavirus variants -study
Pfizer and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appeared to work against a key mutation in the highly transmissible new variants of the coronavirus discovered in Britain and South Africa, according to a laboratory study conducted by the U.S. drugmaker.

• Boeing to pay $2.5 billion to settle U.S. criminal probe into 737 MAX crashes
Boeing will pay more than $2.5 billion in fines and compensation after reaching a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over two plane crashes that killed a total of 346 people and led to the grounding of its 737 MAX jetliner.

• Hyundai says in early talks with Apple after electric vehicle tie-up report
South Korea's Hyundai Motor said it was in early talks with Apple, after local media reported the firms were discussing an electric car and battery tie-up, sending Hyundai shares surging.

• Samsung Elec shares jump on upbeat chip outlook as Q4 profit rises
Samsung Electronics shares jumped after it said its fourth quarter operating profit likely rose 26% as coronavirus pandemic driven remote working and TV-watching fuelled sales of chips and display panels.​


BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock futures hit a record high, a day after Wall Street’s major indexes hit record levels on hopes of a Democrat-controlled Congress to deliver more stimulus spending to help the U.S. economy overcome a steep pandemic-induced downturn. Treasury yields rose and the dollarstrengthened, pushing gold lower by more than a percent. European stocks rose on upbeat economic data and encouraging earnings reports from chipmakers. Asian equities rallied and oil prices edged higher as investors looked beyond rising coronavirus cases and placed bets on global economic recovery. Markets will have eyes on U.S. nonfarm payroll data which is due for release later in the day.


STOCKS TO WATCH
Moves
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc: The bank has named veteran bankers Sam Britton and Matt Gibson to co-lead its global technology, telecom and media (TMT) franchise, according to an internal memo released on Thursday and seen by Reuters. Earlier on Thursday, the former head of global TMT, Nick Giovanni, announced he was leaving to become chief financial officer at delivery platform Instacart. Britton, a seasoned tech banker who has spent over 24 years at Goldman, has led some of the largest software deals in history, including Slack's $27.7 billion sale to Salesforce and IBM’s $34 billion purchase of Red Hat. He will continue to run the team from San Francisco. Gibson, who previously co-led investment banking client services since 2015, will be shuttling between New York and the Bay Area in the new role. A former Navy officer, Gibson started in the energy group at Goldman, and spent the past few years serving large-cap clients across industries, including 3M and Conagra Brands.

In Other News
• Achronix Semiconductor Corp: The company said on Thursday it has agreed to go public through a merger with blank-check firm ACE Convergence in a $2.1 billion deal, as it looks to invest in new products and drive growth. The combined company, which is expected to be listed on the Nasdaq under the symbol "ACHX," will be helmed by Achronix Chief Executive Officer Robert Blake, the companies said. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of the first half of 2021, pending approvals.
• Apple Inc: South Korea's Hyundai Motor said it was in early talks with Apple, after local media reported the firms were discussing an electric car and battery tie-up, sending Hyundai shares surging. Earlier Korea Economic Daily TV said the iPhone maker and Hyundai were in discussions to develop self-driving electric vehicles by 2027 and develop batteries at U.S. factories operated by either Hyundai or its affiliate Kia Motors Corp. The broadcaster didn't cite sources. In a regulatory filing issued later, the automaker said it was "getting requests for cooperation on joint development of autonomous electric vehicles from various companies", without identifying any of them.
• Blackstone Group Inc and Carlyle Group Inc: Blackstone secured the support of Bill Gates, the biggest shareholder in Signature Aviation, bolstering its bid to buy the private-jet servicing company in the face of a rival approach from Carlyle. Blackstone's agreement with Gates' Cascade Investment for its $4.29 billion offer comes just hours after Signature confirmed Carlyle's takeover approach. Blackstone and Cascade, which owns a near 20% stake in London-based Signature, are in advanced talks with the company about their proposal that involves a cash offer of 3.81 pounds per share, Blackstone said. The 3.81-pounds-per-share bid is Blackstone's sixth proposal, Signature Aviation disclosed last month, when it also rebuffed another proposal from Global Infrastructure Partners. Blackstone said the terms of its agreement with Cascade also contained voting arrangements such that Cascade will vote against any competing proposal after a firm bid is made Blackstone.

• Boeing Co: The planemaker will pay more than $2.5 billion in fines and compensation after reaching a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice over two plane crashes that killed a total of 346 people and led to the grounding of its 737 MAX jetliner. The settlement, which allows Boeing to avoid prosecution, includes a fine of $243.6 million, compensation to airlines of $1.77 billion and a $500 million crash-victim fund over fraud conspiracy charges related to the plane's flawed design. Boeing said it would take a $743.6 million charge against its fourth-quarter 2020 earnings to reflect the deferred prosecution agreement, a form of corporate plea bargain. Boeing had put aside reserves of $1.77 billion in prior quarters to provide for compensation to airlines. Plaintiffs lawyers representing families of victims of the Ethiopian Airlines crash said the settlement strengthens civil litigation against Boeing in Chicago, where the company is headquartered. Boeing has already settled most lawsuits related to the Lion Air disaster in Indonesia.

• Bustle Digital Group: The U.S. media platform whose publications include fashion magazine W and Bustle, is exploring a potential merger with blank-check acquisition companies which would take it public, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company is aiming for a valuation of at least $600 million, including debt, and recently hired investment bank Farvahar Partners to identify an attractive deal with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), the source said. It is possible that no deal will materialize, the source said, requesting anonymity. BDG declined to comment. A deal with a SPAC could give BDG cash to acquire more media publications. The company has often purchased struggling media brands and sought to cut costs and turn them around. The company says its various publications have over 82 million readers.

• Honda Motor Corp: The carmaker said its output in Japan could be affected by a shortage of semiconductors, becoming the latest automaker hit by a chip crunch as demand rebounds from the coronavirus crisis. "The company has begun seeing some impact in the parts supply, and to minimize the effect, we are taking measures in output transfer and quantity adjustments," a spokesman said. The company was examining output adjustments for each car model, he added. The Japanese automaker will first shrink its production by about 4,000 units this month, mainly affecting the Fit subcompact made at a plant in the city of Suzuka in Mie prefecture, the Nikkei newspaper said earlier. While Honda's semiconductor inventory is secured until February, the company is "currently under examination for supplies from then on, including alternative supplies," the spokesman said.

• Micron Technology Inc: The chipmaker on Thursday forecast second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates as a global shift to remote work and a recent uptick in 5G smartphone adoption drove demand for its chips. Micron struggled with low prices for its chips over the past year because of an abundance of supplies, but Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said supplies are expected to tighten in 2021 as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. The chipmaker expects current-quarter revenue of $5.8 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $5.50 billion. The company's revenue for the first quarter rose about 12% to $5.77 billion, beating estimates of $5.73 billion. Excluding items, the company earned 78 cents per share, above estimates of 71 cents per share.

• Moderna Inc: The first shots of the Moderna vaccine against the coronavirus should arrive in France in the coming days, Alain Fischer, the immunologist coordinating the country's vaccination strategy, said. Fischer also told BFM television there were still some uncertainties over Astrazeneca's COVID vaccine. Separately, UK health regulators may grant emergency use authorization to Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine as soon as Friday, making it the third vaccine to receive approval in the country, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

• Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE: The companies' COVID-19 vaccine appeared to work against a key mutation in the highly transmissible new variants of the coronavirus discovered in the UK and South Africa, according to a laboratory study conducted by the U.S. drugmaker. The not-yet peer reviewed study by Pfizer and scientists from the University of Texas Medical Branch indicated the vaccine was effective in neutralizing virus with the so-called N501Y mutation of the spike protein. The study was conducted on blood taken from people who had been given the vaccine. Its findings are limited, because it does not look at the full set of mutations found in either of the new variants of the rapidly spreading virus. Separately, British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said there were concerns that COVID-19 vaccines might not work properly against the highly transmissible variant of the coronavirus discovered in South Africa. Separately, the European Union reached a deal with Pfizer and BioNTech for 300 million additional doses of their COVID-19 vaccine, the head of the European Commission said, in a move that would give the EU nearly half of the firms' global output for 2021.

• Sarepta Therapeutics Inc: The drugmaker said on Thursday its experimental gene therapy to treat a muscle-wasting disorder did not achieve statistical significance in one of the main goals of a study, sending its shares down. Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a rare degenerative neuromuscular disorder, which affects about one in 3,500-5,000 male births worldwide and causes severe progressive muscle loss and premature death. The setback comes as Pfizer dosed its first patient in a late-stage study testing its treatment for DMD. Some analysts have suggested that Sarepta's gene therapy seems to have a better safety profile than Pfizer's in early trials. Sarepta's drug, SRP-9001, however, met one of the goals of the study, the company said.

• Social Finance Inc and Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp V: U.S. online lending startup Social Finance Inc (SoFi) said on Thursday it has agreed to go public through a merger with Social Capital Hedosophia, a blank-check acquisition company led by venture capital investor Chamath Palihapitiya. The deal values SoFi at around $8.65 billion and is expected to provide up to $2.4 billion in cash proceeds to the San Francisco-based company. Reuters had reported earlier on Thursday that SoFi and Social Capital were nearing a deal to merge. SoFi plans to use the proceeds to pay back debt from the $1.2 billion acquisition last year of payment software Galileo and to grow its business. SoFi said it expects to generate about $1 billion of adjusted net revenue in 2021, a 60% jump year-over-year.

• SolarWinds Corp: The company used by hackers as a springboard for the worst-known breach of U.S. government computers in at least five years has hired some of the biggest names in security to help it recover. SolarWinds, which had backdoored versions of its network-management software go out to thousands of customers, had already hired CrowdStrike to help it assess the intrusion and protect it going forward. On Thursday, it hired a new consulting business formed by former U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency head Chris Krebs and Alex Stamos, former chief security officer at Facebook. Krebs was the first leader of Homeland Security unit CISA and led the national effort to keep the 2020 election safe from hacking and to dispel related misinformation. He was fired by President Donald Trump after he continued to assert the election was not "rigged" but free from electronic chicanery.

• SVF Investment Corp: Blank-check company SVF Investment Corp, backed by SoftBank Group, said on Thursday it sold shares in its initial public offering at $10 per unit to raise $525 million. SVF Investment is sponsored by SoftBank Investment Advisers, which runs the $100 billion fund and said it could invest in a new or existing portfolio company. The launch of the special purpose acquisition (SPAC) marks an appeal to investors after earlier efforts to raise capital for a second Vision Fund floundered following missteps. The units will be listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker "SVFAU" beginning on Jan. 8, the company said. Citigroup Global Markets Inc, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc, and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co are acting as book-running managers in the offering.

• Total SE: The company will be as active in adding renewable energy assets in 2021 as it was last year, Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne told an Oddo BHF conference. Total is trying to reduce its dependence on oil and shift towards electricity and renewable energy. It aims to have 35 gigawatts (GW) of gross renewable energy generation capacity by 2025 from around 9 GW now. Pouyanne said the investment budget for electricity and renewables would surpass $2 billion in 2021. Asked whether Total would still pursue oil exploration in future, Pouyanne said the company would focus on cost and said some fields that were difficult to develop in some regions like the Arctic were off limits.

• Walmart Inc: India's Income Tax Department this week conducted searches at offices of a group firm of Walmart's Flipkart and local food delivery startup Swiggy for alleged tax evasion by their third-party vendors, two sources told Reuters. The searches began on Wednesday at Swiggy and Instakart's offices in the southern city of Bengaluru, the sources said. The search at the office of Instakart, e-commerce giant Flipkart's logistics arm, concluded late on Thursday, one of the sources said. At least 20 income tax officials visited the Instakart office to inspect invoices issued to its vendors, the source added. In a statement, Flipkart said it was providing the officials with "all the required information and are extending our full co-operation", adding it was in full compliance with all tax and legal requirements. The tax department did not immediately respond to Reuters' request for comment.


COLUMN
Pandemic demographics complicate debt metrics: Mike Dolan
By depressing world birth rates and population projections further, the still-raging pandemic may also damage the ability of economies to grow their way out of the additional debt piles COVID-19 has foisted upon them. A report by HSBC this week said the pandemic's impact on falling birth rates could weaken the pace of global population growth far more than the 1.87 million death toll to date - prompting them to bring forward their forecast peak in world population by as much as a decade to the early 2050s.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Acadia Healthcare Company Inc: Credit Suisse raises target price to $54 from $44, anticipating a higher leverage ratio for the company after the sale of its struggling UK operations business.

• Domino's Pizza Inc: Stephens cuts target price to $360 from $440, expecting the company’s 2021 revenue to be slightly negative, coming off the 2020 highs.

• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc: JPMorgan raises target price to $138 from $135, expecting the estimated cost reductions of $300 million after transaction with the Reverse Morris Trust to come in quickly as the companies had a year to prepare for the closing of the transaction.

• Mednax INC: Credit Suisse raises target price to $26 from $25, anticipating the company’s renewed focus on core operations and the new management to help drive margin expansion and accelerate growth.

• Sarepta Therapeutics Inc: JPMorgan cuts target price to $96 from $185, to reflect disappointing results from the company for its SRP-9001 gene therapy in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 Non-farm payrolls for Dec: Expected 71,000; Prior 245,000
0830 Private payrolls for Dec: Expected 98,000; Prior 344,000
0830 Manufacturing payrolls for Dec: Expected 20,000; Prior 27,000
0830 Government payrolls for Dec: Prior -99,000
0830 Unemployment rate for Dec: Expected 6.8%; Prior 6.7%
0830 Average earnings mm for Dec: Expected 0.2%; Prior 0.3%
0830 Average earnings yy for Dec: Expected 4.4%; Prior 4.4%
0830 Average workweek hours for Dec: Expected 34.8 hrs; Prior 34.8 hrs
0830 Labor force partic for Dec: Prior 61.5%
0830 U6 underemployment for Dec: Prior 12.0%
1000 Wholesale inventory, R mm for Nov: Expected -0.1%; Prior -0.1%
1000 Wholesale sales mm for Nov: Prior 1.8%


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report.


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1200 PriceSmart Inc Q1 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
AT&T Inc: Amount $0.52
Global Net Lease Inc: Amount $0.40
Hormel Foods Corp: Amount $0.24
Intuit Inc: Amount $0.59
Lincoln National Corp: Amount $0.42
OGE Energy Corp: Amount $0.40
UDR Inc: Amount $0.36
Universal Corp: Amount $0.77
Waddell & Reed Financial Inc: Amount $0.25

Goedemorgen,
Weer nieuwe recordstanden op Wall Street na een slechte start van de week, vooral de Nasdaq viel op gisteren met een stevige plus (2,5%). Een groot optimisme dat er snel weer een nieuw steunpakket komt tegen de crisis overheerst de markt plots weer, de zoveelste stijging op hoop dus. Belangrijk daarbij is dat de Democraten nu overal de meerderheid hebben ook al is de verdeling in de Senaat 50-50 maar Vice-president Harris kan dan altijd de laatste stem geven om een item erdoor te krijgen.

Voorlopig stuwt dit Wall Street momenteel maar dat is al zo'n lange tijd gaande dat je op een gegeven moment echt moet gaan denken waar we staan en hoe het met de waarderingen zit ... Zie het aandeel Tesla dat gewoon verder stijgt zonder echte winstnemingen, Tesla won weer 8% nadat analisten van RBC Capital hun advies hadden verhoogd voor de maker van elektrische auto's met als koersdoel 810 dollar. Door de waanzin, want anders kan ik het helaas niet noemen, zien we dat Elon Musk nu de rijkste man op aarde is geworden met een kapitaal van maar liefst 188 miljard dollar. Ooit was Bill Gates de rijkste man met iets van 48 miljard dollar niet eens zo lang geleden (2013-2014). Musk haalt nu dus Jeff Bezos in als rijkste persoon op aarde.

Europa lag er dan weer verdeeld bij, de AEX verloor zelfs bijna 2 punten, de DAX deed het dan wel weer goed want op slotbasis won de DAX gisteren 76 punten. Verder zien we de Franse CAC 39 punten hoger. Vanmorgen staan de futures weer wat hoger, de DAX tot rond de 80-90 punten, de AEX zo'n 5 punten. Ook op Wall Street hogere indicaties, de Dow future een 150 punten hoger, de Nasdaq 100 futures zo'n 40 punten. Vanmiddag om 14:30 krijgen we cijfers over de werkgelegenheid, eens zien hoe die uitpakken en hoe de markten erop gaan reageren. Alles staat net boven de toppen nu, maar nog steeds aan de bovenkant van de WIG technisch bekeken.

Paniek aankopen kunnen top aangeven:
De Nasdaq vertoonde gisteren een soort paniekachtig koopgedrag, nu was men blij dat de chaos in het Capitool voorbij is en dat Trump dan plots toch instemde met een ordelijke machtsoverdracht. De Nasdaq Composite en de Nasdaq 100 wonnen beiden 2,5% vooral weer door de power aandelen Tesla, Apple, Microsoft en Alphabet.

Verder won de S&P 500 gisteren 1,5% terwijl de Dow Jones 0,7%. Maar opnieuw viel het op dat de Nasdaq Arms Index, een volume gewogen breedte-indicator, daalde tot 0,387. Dat heb ik al een keer aangegeven want op Wall Street geven dalingen van deze indicator aan dat als die onder de 0,50 terecht komt er sprake is van paniekaankopen. Dat komt door dat er door FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) aankopen samen met het moeten afdekken van short posities die open staan worden uitgevoerd.

Deze indicator (Nasdaq Arms Index) komt tot stand via de verhouding tussen het aantal oplopende aandelen te delen door het aantal dalende aandelen waar men ook het volume verhouding van beide richtingen erbij neemt. Naarmate de onderliggende index (de Nasdaq) stijgt zal de Arms index wel vaak en bijna altijd tot onder de 1 zakken, dan zijn er vanzelf meestal meer stijgers dan dalers. Niet vaak is het zo dat het aantal aandelen op de Nasdaq die oplopen en dalen een verhouding laten zien van 3 tegen 1 en dat daar nog bijkomt dat het volume van de oplopende aandelen meer dan 90% van het totale volume voor zich neemt. Door deze waarnemingen, ofwel deze factoren samen zakt deze Nasdaq Arms index tot onder de 0,5 waardoor we dan spreken van paniek aankopen. Dat is het verloop van de Nasdaq wat we gisteren hebben gezien.

Let er wel op dat de Nasdaq woensdag nog fors verloor, dus het werd echt een opkopen van de DIP sessie.

U kunt mij en dus @USMarkets uiteraard ook volgen via onze Twitter account, ga naar ... https://twitter.com/USMarkets waar ik tussentijds wat charts over de markt en sentiment plaats, ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.226 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 54,85 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1910 dollar staat.

Strategische posities:
Er lopen wat posities die in de loop van de week werden opgenomen, zodra u lid wordt ontvangt u de signalen en kunt u alles inzien via onze Tradershop op de website. We proberen in ieder geval met de markt mee te gaan, wat ik verwacht is dat de markt volatiel zal blijven, ook dit jaar zullen we moeten schakelen tussen long en short.

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Tussenstand deze maand januari 2021:

Resultaat afgelopen maand december 2020:

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart