Liveblog Archief woensdag 16 juni 2021

TOP NEWS
• Fed expected to signal start of monetary policy shift debate
Federal Reserve officials are expected to at least flag the pending start of talks about when and how to exit from the crisis-era policies the U.S. central bank put in place at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

• Cheer over Boeing, Airbus deal belies cracks in EU, U.S. trade relationship
A deal for a five-year ceasefire in a U.S. and EU dispute over aircraft subsidies on Tuesday reflected progress, but the underlying trade relationship remains fragile with many unresolved disagreements, diplomats and trade experts said.

• EU says J&J to miss vaccine supply target in second quarter
Johnson & Johnson is expected to miss its COVID-19 vaccine supply target to the European Union for the second quarter after millions of doses were banned for use in Europe over safety concerns, an EU Commission spokesman said.

• EBay to sell South Korean unit for about $3.6 billion to Shinsegae, Naver -media
EBay will sell its South Korean business to retailer Shinsegae Group's E-Mart and web portal operator Naver for about $3.6 billion, local newspapers reported.

• Regeneron COVID-19 therapy cuts deaths among hospitalised patients who lack antibodies -study
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ COVID-19 antibody cocktail reduces deaths in hospitalised patients who have not mounted their own antibody response, a large British study published found.​


BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock index futures treaded water as investors refrained from placing big bets ahead of U.S. Federal Reserve meeting outcome. Gains in financial and industrial stocks lifted most European indexes. In Asian equity markets, China shares ended lower, dragged down by losses in material and healthcare stocks and Japan's benchmark Nikkei index fell as chip-related stocks tracked overnight weakness in U.S. peers. The dollar was little changed against a basket of major currencies, after hitting a one-month high in the previous session. A recovery in demand from the pandemic and a drop in U.S. crude inventories supported oil prices. Gold prices steadied in a narrow range. Housing data, along with import and export numbers are due for release later in the day.​


STOCKS TO WATCH

Results
• Oracle Corp: The company on Tuesday forecast current-quarter profit below Wall Street estimates, as the business software maker ramps up investments in its cloud computing business to take on rivals including Microsoft and Amazon.com. The company is planning to double its capital spending on the cloud segment to nearly $4 billion in fiscal 2022 as it benefits from the pandemic with businesses opting for hybrid-work models. Increased investment in cloud, however, led Oracle to forecast first-quarter earnings per share of 94 cents to 98 cents, below expectations of $1.03. Oracle said it expects current-quarter revenue at its largest unit, cloud services and license support, to grow by 4%, which comes to about $7.2 billion, according to Reuters' calculations. Analysts on average expect it to be $7.36 billion. The company posted adjusted profit of $1.54 per share on revenue of $11.23 billion in the fourth quarter ended May 31, compared with estimates of a profit of $1.31 and revenue of $11.04 billion.

Deals Of The Day
• Apollo Global Management Inc: Billionaire Tom Gores' private equity firm Platinum Equity would acquire textbook publishing and educational technology company McGraw Hill for $4.5 billion from Apollo Global, the companies said on Tuesday. McGraw Hill Chief Executive Officer Simon Allen and his senior leadership team will continue to lead the company under Platinum's ownership, the companies said. The deal is expected to be completed in the summer.

• EBay Inc: The e-commerce company will sell its South Korean business to retailer Shinsegae Group's E-Mart and web portal operator Naver for about $3.6 billion, local newspapers reported. E-Mart said in a regulatory filing that it was talking with eBay after entering a binding bid for acquiring eBay Korea this month, but that nothing had been finalised.​

In Other News
• Blackstone Group Inc: Blackstone is nearing a deal to buy office developer Soho China in what would be its biggest real estate investment in the Asian country, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Hong Kong-listed Soho China could be valued at about $3 billion in the deal that could be announced as soon as this week, the report said. The report comes a day after Soho China's shares were halted for trading at the company's request, pending an announcement under Hong Kong's code on takeovers and mergers. The company has a market value of $2.55 billion as of its stock's last close, according to Refinitiv data.

• Citigroup Inc: The bank's finance chief Mark Mason on Tuesday predicted a strong economic recovery this year as more people get vaccinated, but cautioned that may not translate into better profits for the bank because of a slowdown in institutional businesses and higher expenses. "It's been a consumer-led recovery," the CFO said, particularly "driven by the significant take up that we've seen as it relates to vaccinations." The bank, however, does not expect a sizeable uptick in corporate loan growth for the rest of the year, Mason warned, even as consumer borrowing is seen picking up in the second half. "Given the liquidity that's in the market and all the debt issuance activity that we saw last year, I'm not expecting corporate loan growth in the balance of the year," Mason said. The CFO also hinted at higher-than-expected expenses for the bank in the quarter, as the lender continued to invest in areas like investment banking, wealth management and others.

• Credit Suisse Group AG: The bank has prepared its first insurance claims on losses stemming from its $10 billion of funds tied to collapsed finance group Greensill Capital, the Financial Times reported. Credit Suisse is attempting to recoup billions of dollars owed to the group of supply-chain finance funds, which it was forced to close in March, the report added. The bank has started the process of claiming on the related insurance, primarily from Japanese group Tokio Marine 8766.T, the newspaper said, citing people with knowledge of the process. "While it is our general policy not to comment on individual policyholder relationships or policy terms, we currently do not anticipate any material impact on our financials for the 2021 fiscal year and onwards," Tokio Marine said in an emailed statement.

• Ford Motor Co: Britain is in talks with six companies for building gigafactories to produce electric vehicle batteries, the Financial Times reported, citing people briefed on the discussions. Ford, Nissan, LG, Samsung and start-ups Britishvolt and InoBat Auto are in talks with the British government or local authorities about locations for potential factories and financial support, according to the report. A UK business department spokesperson said "to support the auto sector’s transition to electric vehicles" the government is "dedicated to securing gigafactories, and continue to work closely with investors and vehicle manufacturers to progress plans to mass produce batteries in the UK".​

• General Motors Co: The automaker will boost global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% jump over its most recent forecast as it pursues EV leadership, people briefed on the matter told Reuters. As part of that spending, the No. 1 U.S. automaker will build two additional U.S. battery plants and move ahead some of its EV investments, said the sources, who asked not to be identified. In addition, GM Chief Executive Mary Barra is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other key Democrats to discuss EVs and vehicle emissions, the sources said.

• Johnson & Johnson: The company is expected to miss its COVID-19 vaccine supply target to the European Union for the second quarter after millions of doses were banned for use in Europe over safety concerns, an EU Commission spokesman said. The European drugs regulator last week said J&J doses sent to Europe from an Emergent factory in the United States would not be used as a precaution after a case of contamination with substances used for AstraZeneca shots, which are also manufactured in that factory. EMA said in a statement to Reuters that 17 million doses had been forbidden from being used in the bloc after that decision. "Following the non-release of these batches, the company is not expected to be in a position to deliver 55 million doses by the end of this quarter," the EU commission spokesman told Reuters.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co: Malaysian state-owned energy company Petronas and Indonesian counterpart Pertamina are on a watchlist for removal from JPMorgan’s ESG EMBI index, the bank said in a statement on Tuesday. JPMorgan said both oil majors "are expected to exit the JESG suite at the June month-end rebalance" as their scores fell below a required threshold and they are no longer eligible for inclusion. The bank uses outside firms to assess the ESG score required for inclusion in the index. Sustainalytics, one of them, said some of Petronas’ or its affiliates' activities in "high-risk regions" may be viewed as a violation of a United Nations arms embargo, according to the bank's statement. The decline in score is also related to "ongoing exposure to multiple incidents related to human rights" and "the ongoing political situation in Myanmar."

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc: The company's COVID-19 antibody cocktail reduces deaths in hospitalised patients who have not mounted their own antibody response, a large British study published found. The therapy, REGEN-COV, has been granted emergency use authorisation for people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in the United States, but results from the RECOVERY trial provide the clearest evidence of its effectiveness among hospitalised patients. It found that the antibody therapy reduced by a fifth the 28-day mortality of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 whose immune system had not mounted an antibody response, known as seronegative. "People have been very, very sceptical, that any treatment against this particular virus would work by the time people get in hospital," Martin Landray, the joint chief investigator on the trial, told reporters. "If you haven't raised antibodies of your own, you really would benefit from getting some," he said.

• Toyota Motor Corp: The automaker's shares reached a record high, earning a rare message of thanks from the company's president at its annual general meeting. The share price of Japan's no. 1 carmaker exceeded $90.84 on Tuesday for the first time, as investors welcomed Toyota's strong sales, electric plans as well as its ability to tackle a global chip shortage better than the competitors. Toyota shares closed nearly 1% higher at 10,175 yen. "It could be accidental that our share price topped 10,000 yen as we prepared for the meeting, but we were so much encouraged because of it," said company president Akio Toyoda at the AGM held at Toyota's headquarter in Toyota City, Nagoya.

• Twitter Inc: India's technology minister said on Tuesday that Twitter had deliberately defied and failed to comply with the country's new IT rules, which became effective in late May. India's technology ministry wrote to Twitter on June 5, warning the company of "unintended consequences" if it did not obey the rules, Reuters previously reported. Ravi Shankar Prasad did not directly say on Tuesday whether Twitter had lost intermediary protections, but a senior government official told Reuters that Twitter may no longer be eligible to seek liability exemptions as an intermediary or the host of user content in India due to its failure to comply with new IT rules. "There are numerous queries arising as to whether Twitter is entitled to safe harbour provision," Prasad tweeted. "However, the simple fact of the matter is that Twitter has failed to comply with the Intermediary Guidelines that came into effect from the 26th of May."​


ANALYSIS
Investors ask U.S. SEC for more ESG disclosures as companies resist
Investor groups have asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for more corporate disclosures on climate change and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues while business interests have pushed back, a Reuters review of correspondence published by the regulator shows.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Lithia Motors Inc: JPMorgan raises target price to $420 from $415, citing the company’s intra-quarter update highlighting May revenue run-rate with strong growth across all business segments.

• LyondellBasell Industries NV: Jefferies raises target price to $135 from $130, saying tight supply, strong customer-driven demand and recovery in durable goods markets continue to lead to strong pricing and margin expansion.

• Oracle Corp: Barclays raises target price to $83 from $80, expecting accelerating growth in the mid-term as the company spending environment continues to improve and portfolio mix effect becomes favorable for the overall growth trajectory.

• Sage Therapeutics Inc: SVB Leerink cuts target price to $70 from $90, staying less bullish on the prospects for the company’s zuranolone drug.​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 (approx.) Building permits number for May: Expected 1.730 mln; Prior 1.733 mln
0830 (approx.) Building permits change mm for May: Prior -1.3%
0830 (approx.) Housing starts number for May: Expected 1.630 mln; Prior 1.569 mln
0830 (approx.) Housing starts change mm for May: Prior -9.5%
0830 (approx.) Import prices mm for May: Expected 0.8%; Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) Export prices mm for May: Expected 0.8%; Prior 0.8%
0830 (approx.) Import prices yy for May: Prior 10.6%
1400 Fed funds target rate: Expected 0-0.25%; Prior 0-0.25%
1400 (approx.) Fed interest on excess reserves: Prior 0.10%​


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Lennar Corp: Expected Q2 earnings of $2.36 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 Seres Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0830 La-Z-Boy Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Altice USA Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 IAA Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 ImmunoGen Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0900 Translate Bio Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 Exlservice Holdings Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 Service Properties Trust: Annual Shareholders Meeting
0930 TG Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Acceleron Pharma Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 AMC Networks Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Antero Midstream Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Armada Hoffler Properties Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Best Buy Co Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Fidelity National Financial Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1030 Antero Resources Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Addus Homecare Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Ares Management Corp: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Black Knight Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Canoo Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Grand Canyon Education Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1100 Natus Medical Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Avidity Biosciences Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 NanoString Technologies Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Pacific Biosciences of California Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Trupanion Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1200 Twilio Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1230 Guardant Health Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1230 Vaxart Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Alphatec Holdings Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1300 Morphic Holding Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Cortexyme Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Ingersoll Rand Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1400 Karuna Therapeutics Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1600 Seer Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1600 UMH Properties Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting
1700 Honest Company Inc: Q1 earnings conference call
1800 Autodesk Inc: Annual Shareholders Meeting​


EX-DIVIDENDS
Aaron's Company Inc: Amount $0.10
ADT Inc: Amount $0.03
Apollo Investment Corp: Amount $0.31
Belden Inc: Amount $0.05
Best Buy Co Inc: Amount $0.70
Cincinnati Financial Corp: Amount $0.63
Huntington Bancshares Inc: Amount $0.15
Luminex Corp: Amount $0.10
Meridian Bancorp Inc (MARYLAND): Amount $0.10
Synovus Financial Corp: Amount $0.33​

De cijfers vielen tegen gisteren en dat zet Wall Street voorzichtig een stapje terug, het ging vooral om de inflatie die verder oploopt en de detailhandel verkoop in de VS die ver onder de verwachtingen lag want waar men 0,7% daling werd aangegeven werd het 1,3%. Verder wacht men op de FED die vandaag om 20:00 komt met berichten rondom het opkoop programma en de rente. Beleggers wachten daar nu op.

De S&P 500 verloor gisteren 0,25% en sluit onder de recordstand van maandag, ook de Nasdaq die net onder het record terecht kwam maandag sluit lager en liet 0,7% liggen. De Dow Jones verloor wederom, deze keer moest de index 0,3% inleveren. Kijken we naar Europa dan zien we overal een plus, de DAX geraakt deze keer ook wat hoger en won 0,35%. De AEX won met 0,1% minimaal terwijl de CAC 40 een winst van 0,35% liet zien. De DAX, de AEX en de CAC 40 zetten weer een nieuw record neer op slotbasis, Europa ligt er dus nog steeds sterk bij en alle indices lopen wat verder uit boven hun eerdere zware weerstand.

We krijgen in ieder geval nieuws van de FED vanavond, wat het zal worden weet men uiteraard nog niet maar beleggers verwachten in ieder geval niet veel verandering waardoor men uitgaat dat de beurzen dit jaar verder kunnen blijven stijgen omdat de FED de geldkraan nog niet dicht wil draaien.

Men bekijkt het nog altijd door de rose bril ofwel men ziet het glas zelfs rond deze hoge standen nog steeds halfvol. Men gaat er vanuit dat de oplopende inflatie slechts van tijdelijke aard zal zijn. Pas wanneer er signalen de kop opsteken dat de inflatie voor een langere periode hoog blijft zal men zich grotere zorgen maken erover. Daarom blijft de FED belangrijk, zodra men zegt (en dat kan ook vandaag) dat men begint te denken aan afbouwen kan het sentiment snel omslaan.

Resultaat dit jaar verloopt nog altijd naar wens en we blijven rustig:
We hebben deze maand al 3 keer iets kunnen doen maar we schieten er nog niet veel mee op. Let erop dat we al geruime tijd goed bezig zijn en als het even niet loopt zoals verwacht ik snel reageer om verlies te beperken. We doen rustig verder en ik zoek altijd waar het kan naar een instap bij de indices. Het is wel zo dat de divergentie tussen de indices het wat lastiger maakt om een duidelijke keuze te maken.

Wordt nu dus lid en volg de signalen die er snel weer komen ... Zie hieronder het resultaat van deze maand per abonnement.

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 AUGUSTUS voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder het resultaat van deze maand (JUNI):

Technische ontwikkeling markt:
We zien nog altijd een sterke markt en de indices blijven dicht bij hun toppen, de trend blijft omhoog tot er een draaipunt komt en ik verwacht niet dat we er ver vanaf zitten rond de niveaus die werden bereikt de afgelopen dagen. De Dow Jones daarentegen is al aan het draaien zien we duidelijk op de grafiek hieronder. Andere indices zoals de AEX en de DAX blijven records neerzetten. De Nasdaq, de Nasdaq 100 en de SOX index komen nu net onder hun recordstanden uit. Via meerdere indices probeert de markt nu uit te breken maar nog steeds zie ik geen fors geweld naar omhoog. Het is nu vooral wachten op winstnemingen die voorlopig nog uitblijven.

Overzicht markt:

Technische conditie AEX:
De AEX blijft sterk liggen en zet opnieuw een recordslot neer op 731 punten. De hoogste stand ooit werd op 734.64 punten gezet gisteren. De AEX blijft uiteraard zeer afhankelijk van zwaargewicht ASML, het aandeel blijft maar gaan en bereikt al een stand op €578,5 op slotbasis en stond zelfs even op €588. Door dat ASML nu extreem zwaar weegt binnen de AEX zien we meteen al aan de stand van de index hoe ASML erbij ligt.

Weerstand nu de 732 punten, later nemen we de 738 en de 745 punten als richtpunten omhoog. Steun blijft voorlopig de oude weerstandszone rond de 718-719 punten, later de 711- 712 punten waar we nu ook het 50-daags gemiddelde zien.

Technische conditie DAX:
De DAX blijft boven de belangrijke 15.550 punten zone en weet een nieuw recordslot neer te zetten, die 15.550 punten was eerder de zeer zware weerstand bij de DAX, de index bleef daar weken tegenaan hikken. Desondanks het nieuwe record zal er niet veel nodig zijn om deze zone weer op te zoeken en zelfs te doorbreken naar beneden toe bij een terugval. Opletten dus wat betreft de DAX want ik vertrouw het verloop niet echt.

Weerstand nu de 15.730 punten, later de 15.850 en de 16.000 punten. Steun wordt blijft hoe dan ook die bekende 15.550 punten waar de index vrijdag ook even op terecht kwam. Later de 15.425 en de 15.340 punten.

Pas als de DAX duidelijk onder die 15.550 punten zakt kan het naar mijn mening snel weer terug naar de steunlijn onder de bodems en het 50-daags gemiddelde, beiden komen nu uit rond de 15.355 punten.

S&P 500 analyse:
De S&P 500 blijft na opnieuw een volatiele sessie hangen rondom binnen de zone 4230-4260 punten. De topzone wordt goed getest maar het is nog altijd zo dat er niet extreem veel power achter de beweging zit, het lijkt erop van wel maar op zich valt alles toch een beetje tegen omdat een echt krachtige uitbraak er maar niet komt. Ook naar omlaag zien we voorlopig nog niet veel druk. Weerstand nu eerst de 4275 punten, later de 4300 en de 4350 punten.

Steun nu de 4200 punten, later de 4175 punten waar het 50-MA uitkomt samen met de lijn onder de bodems. Onder die 4175 punten kan het wel eens moeilijk worden door dat de index dan in een soort gat valt en 5 tot 10% kan corrigeren. Denk eraan dat het steun niveau elke dag een paar punten (ongeveer 5) hoger komt te liggen en we dus heel snel dat punt kunnen bereiken bij een daling.

Analyse Nasdaq:
De Nasdaq doet wel een stapje terug maar sluit nog steeds dicht bij de top die we op 4211 punten zien uitkomen, er wachten daar nu 2 toppen, eentje in februari en een in april. De vraag is nu of er nu snel een 3e komt en of de index er deze keer wel door weet te geraken. Het wordt nu hoe dan ook moeilijk voor de technologie indices want normaal gezien bereiken we nu een zware weerstand.

De top op 14.211 punten wordt dus het eerste richtpunt, bij een uitbraak kijken we naar stappen van 100 punten, dus de 14.300, de 14.400 en de 14.500 punten. Steun nu eerst de 14.100 met later de 14.000 punten. Het 50-daags gemiddelde komt nu uit rond de 13.755 punten.

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1.213 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 74,5 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1862 dollar staat.

De LIVEBLOG en Twitter:
Via de LIVEBLOG en tussendoor ook via mijn Twitter account laat ik gedurende de dag ook wat grafiekjes met korte uitleg voorbij komen over de markt. Op Twitter kunt u mij volgen via @USMarkets dan kunt u deze snelle informatie die ik deel uiteraard ook inzien .... https://twitter.com/USMarkets , ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

LET OP !! Maak nu gebruik van de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 AUGUSTUS voor €39 (Polleke Trading €49)... Via de site en dan de Tradershop kunt zich inschrijven en daar kunt u als lid meteen ook de lopende posities met alle details inzien. Ga naar de Tradershop en schrijf u meteen in ... https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder de resultaten van dit jaar (2021):

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart