According to the prospectus, the price of Anthropic will be set on the evening of Wednesday 18 November, after which the stock starts on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT on Thursday 19 November. The price range is between $70 and $78 per share, good for around $61 billion in new shares.

Before that, Nvidia reports quarterly results after the close on Tuesday 17 November, the 1st time without Jensen Huang at the helm. In addition, the market is pricing in a rate hike by the Fed in December, after an inflation figure that came in higher than expected this week.

The news of the week came on Thursday 12 November, when Jensen Huang stepped down after more than 30 years as head of Nvidia. Colette Kress, until now chief financial officer, takes over the helm. Investors reacted nervously, the stock lost another 2% or so on Friday to $162.85 and gave up almost 13% over the whole week.

HSBC cut its rating to hold, and the rest of the AI chain also took hits on Friday. Notably, the chip index SOX still ended the week with a big gain, so the problem lies mainly with Nvidia itself and not with the whole sector.

The US CPI of Tuesday 10 November came in higher than expected and pushed the 10 year yield towards 5.15%. Fed governor Christopher Waller said he supports a rate hike in December, and even wants to see a step of half a percentage point if inflation accelerates further.

Producer prices for October came in a bit cooler on a monthly basis, but on a yearly basis the increase remains high. The market therefore factors in a large chance of a rate hike in December by the Fed under chair Kevin Warsh. A higher rate makes borrowing more expensive for precisely the fast growing technology companies.

After 4 losing weeks in a row, Wall Street recovered strongly this week from the chip shock of early November. The S&P 500 gained 2.51%, the Dow Jones 2.07% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.27%, the best Nasdaq week since August.

European markets took part in full. The DAX climbed 3.60% and now trades above the August high, the CAC 40 gained 2.82% and the AEX and the BEL 20 also ended the week with a gain.

Since Monday 10 November Anthropic has been touring large investors for the IPO on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. The company wants to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each, in addition to a private placement of $26 billion.

Such a large IPO draws money away from other AI names, because funds often first free up room in order to get in. That can cause extra movement in the technology corner in the run up to Thursday 19 November.

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The S&P 500 lost 0.40% on Friday and closed at 7,562, but on a weekly basis a gain of 2.51% remains. The price is below the EMA-20, which comes in at 7,601, and the SMA-50, which comes in at 7,668, but still well above the SMA-200, which comes in at 7,341, so the long term trend remains upward. At the start of November the index tested the rising trend line since March, close to the SMA-200, which comes in at 7,341, after which a strong recovery followed. Since August the price has been moving in a sideways range between 7,500 and 7,820, with resistance at 7,580 and 7,690 and support at 7,500 and 7,350.

The RSI is just below the middle, the MACD is slightly below zero and below the signal line, but momentum is already tentatively turning up. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price trades just below the middle line, in the lower half of the band, a calm picture without an extreme signal.

For the coming sessions we expect a sideways move within the range, as long as the support at 7,500 holds. The price does not yet break above the resistance at 7,690 as long as the EMA-20, which comes in at 7,601, is not recaptured. A close below 7,500 invalidates that scenario.

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The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.22% on Friday to 27,944, although a weekly gain of 3.53% remains. The price trades below the EMA-20, which comes in at 28,527, and the SMA-50, which comes in at 29,506, and just below the SMA-200, which comes in at 28,040, so the index sits right on the border of the long term trend. At the start of November the price touched the rising trend line around 26,500, after which a recovery followed. After the double top around 30,750 the pattern of lower highs remains intact, with resistance at 28,200 and 28,900 and support at 27,200 and 26,180.

The RSI is below the middle and the MACD moves below zero around the signal line, selling pressure is now lower than a week ago. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price trades below the middle line, in the lower half of the band, without touching the lower band.

For the coming sessions we expect a new test of the SMA-200, which comes in at 28,040, and the resistance at 28,200, as long as the support at 27,200 holds. The price does not yet break above the resistance as long as Nvidia causes unrest. A close below 27,200 invalidates that scenario.

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The AEX gained 0.07% on Friday and closed at 1,141, good for a weekly gain of 1.82%. The price trades above the EMA-20, which comes in at 1,134, and the SMA-50, which comes in at 1,123, and also above the SMA-200, which comes in at 1,064, so the trend is upward on all time frames. The resistance at 1,147 has been tested several times, the support lies at 1,124 and 1,114. With higher lows under a flat resistance, an ascending triangle is forming.

The RSI is above the middle, the MACD is just above the signal line and momentum is positive. The Bollinger Bands show that the price sits in the upper half of the band, which is getting narrower, a sign of calm that often precedes a bigger move.

For the coming sessions we expect a new test of the resistance at 1,147, as long as the support at 1,124 holds. Only when the price breaks out above that resistance is the ascending triangle confirmed. A close below 1,124 invalidates that scenario.

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The DAX gave up 0.08% on Friday and closed at 26,750, after a strong week with a gain of 3.60%. The price trades well above the EMA-20, which comes in at 26,070, the SMA-50, which comes in at 25,610, and the SMA-200, which comes in at 24,973, so the upward trend remains solid. This week the index moved above the old August high at 26,600, a real breakout still has to be confirmed. That old high now becomes the 1st support, with further support at 25,900 and 25,500.

The RSI is high but still below the overbought level, the MACD is above the signal line and momentum remains strong. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how strong this index remains. The price trades in the upper half of the band, which is widening, immediately a sign that the move is gaining strength.

For the coming sessions we expect the breakout above 26,600 to hold and the upward trend to continue. A pullback to the old high as a test of the new support remains possible though. A close below 26,600 invalidates that scenario.

Monday 16 November: Empire State index, Eurozone industrial production.

Tuesday 17 November: German ZEW index, US retail sales for October, industrial production and import prices, Nvidia results after the close.

Wednesday 18 November: US housing starts and building permits, eurozone inflation, pricing of Anthropic.

Thursday 19 November: Philly Fed index, weekly jobless claims, 1st trading day of Anthropic.

Friday 20 November: Michigan consumer confidence, eurozone consumer confidence.