Technische weerstand bereikt, wat nu?

De week begon met een sterke start, zowel Europa dat hoopt op een renteverlaging als Wall Street lieten een mooie plus zien. De weerstandsniveaus worden nu wel bereikt zodat de markt de komende sessies een duidelijke richting moet kiezen.

Vandaag 30 maart:

CarMax Group

(KMX) en Accenture (ACN) komen met hun kwartaal cijfers.

Het Consumer Confidence wordt het belangrijkste economische cijfer vandaag. De markt kijkt uit naar 86.0 in relatie met de toenemende angst voor nieuwe terreur aanslagen.

Autodesk (ADSK) en Starbucks (SBUX) houden een analisten en aandeelhouders bijeenkomst.

• 18:03 ET Monday After Hours : prices levels vs. 4 pm ET: An extended session virtually devoid of announcements of any kind has left the futures indications relatively unchanged with fair value. Presently, the S&P futures, at 1121, are flat with fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1443, are 2 points below fair value. From an earnings perspective, the market remains in a quiet period until Alcoa (AA) reports its March quarter results on Tuesday April 6.
• Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) +4%: Business processing company will replace Travelers Property Casualty (TAP.b) in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on 1/1/04; Travelers is being acquired by fellow S&P 500 constituent St Paul Co (SPC) in a transaction anticipated to close on or about that date; Thor Industries (THO) will replace ACS in th e S&P MidCap 400 & BioLase Tech (BLTI) will replace THO in the S&P SmallCap 600
• California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) +5% : Casual dining restaurant chain says that Q1 (Mar) comps rose 6.2%, above its initial target of +2-3%; As a result, the company is now comfortable with EPS of $0.19-0.20 versus $0.17-0.19 earlier; The initial forecast, by way of reference, was below the then Reuters Research consensus estimate of $0.23; Stock sold off 8% the day afterwards
• Vascular Solutions (VASC) +28% : Medical equipment and supplies company announces that it received 510(k) clearance by the FDA for its D-Stat Dry 3x3 hemostatic bandage, a new version of VASC's original D-Stat Dry product; Micro-cap issue had sold off 27% since late Feb, and has more than recovered that move in tonight's surge higher
• 15:11 ET Treasuries lower on nonfarm revisions : Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. It's the word of the day and will most likely be the word of the week leading up to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Estimates have been on the rise for nonfarm payrolls since last Friday, with average forecasts looking for 120K new jobs and optimistic whispers reaching as high as 225K. While this number will be the driving factor for activity this week, not much has changed since our mid-day update, so we will try to avoid beating a dead horse. Currency activity has remained muted as the dollar lost ground vs the yen early in the session on denied reports the Bank of Japan will cease its currency intervention policy. Tomorrow's only economic release, nonfarm report. The 10-year is currently -15/32nds; yielding 3.886%, 2-year is currently -02/32nds; yielding 1.612%, 5-year is currently -08/32nds; yielding 2.842%, 30-year is currently -24/32nds; yielding 4.809%.

• 13:00 ET Geopolitical Summary : ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet in the past week gave the strongest hint yet that the bank will cut rates soon when he said the ECB may trim its growth forecast if consumer demand remains low... The Pakistani army has reported that "Mr. Abdullah", a senior al-Qaeda member described as an intelligence chief, has been killed in Pakistan's latest offensive; yet Pakistan also confirmed that the "high-value" target under siege in recent weeks was Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan leader Tahir Yaldashev, rather than al-Qaeda #2 Ayman al-Zawahiri... Multiple explosions and attacks on police in Uzbekistan have left at least 19 people dead and are being blamed on terrorists... French President Jacques Chirac and his ruling conservative party suffered a crushing defeat in regional midterm elections yesterday, with the opposition Socialists and their Green and Communist allies seizing control of the vast majority of regional councils... Three British soldiers were injured after clashing with stone-throwing Iraqis in Basra after they tried to evict Islamic militiamen from a govt building.

• 12:01 ET Treasuries continue sell off on nonfarm expectations : Follow-through trading continues to push bond prices lower and yields as high as 3.909%. The market is positioning for a substantial increase in March's worse than expected payrolls number and the fact that 99% of the bond market's short, things could get seriously ugly." Without economic releases to drive the market today, trading will remain speculative on Friday's numbers. Tomorrow we get another look at March Michigan sentiment numbers, muting its effect. The 10-year is currently -15/32nds; yielding 3.888%, 2-year is currently -02/32nds; yielding 1.612%, 5-year is currently -09/32nds; yielding 2.846%, 30-year is currently -28/32nds; yielding 4.816%.

• 11:01 ET Floor Talk : Traders attributing today's market strength to several items: 1) Wachovia comments suggesting staffing companies are flush with business coupled with the firm's expectations of stronger than expected job data this Friday; 2) UBS suggesting that in the absence of bad news the trend of the stock market should be materially up. In the event that any good news comes out soon, the firm would expect the market to move "notably higher", reaching or surpassing firm's 1200 S&P 500 target price (see 8:34 In Play comment); 3) bin Laden rumors resurfacing again, however, this is strictly speculative with most traders citing serious pessimism given the frequency of its occurrence during strong trading days.

• 08:52 ET Gold Oil and Dollar Summary : TheYen (105.56) continues to edge higher as rumors of the Bank of Japan ending its intervening yen-selling strategy to protect its exports circulate...Oil (35.33) slips a little lower on doubts about the March 31 OPEC meeting announcing to cut production. The argument lies with OPEC's concern about demand falling in the second quarter as the winter season ends, despite strong demand from China and the US. The other side argues oil prices are already too high as its trades well above its $28 benchmark.

Guy Boscart