Wall Street opnieuw fors omlaag

De markt krijgt het moeilijk, de aanslagen van vorige week wegen duidelijk op het sentiment. Het gevaar van Al Qaeda hangt boven de markt. toch verwacht ik een technisch herstel alvoor de volgende tik omlaag komt. Vandaag komt ook de FED bijeen om over de rente een beslissing te nemen.

• Vandaag komt Lehman Brothers (LEH) met cijfers voorbeurs.
• De cijfers over de February Housing Starts en Building Permits komen vandaag om 14:30.
• De Fed komt bijeen vandaag en brengt om 20:15 het verslag over de rentevooruitzichten naar buiten. Men verwacht dat de rente op 1% blijft.

Close Dow -137.19 at 10,102.89, Nasdaq -45.53 at 1,939.20, S&P -16.14 at 1,104.43 The bleeding on Wall Street continued in today's session, as the major averages declined 1.4-2.3%, closing at new lows for 2004... Much of the weakness could be attributed to the market's heightened risk averseness resulting from last week's bombings in Spain being attributed to Al Qaeda and the move to price more of a risk premium into the marketplace... Accordingly, the major averages spent the entirety of the session slipping lower and staging virtually no rebound efforts... The bulk of the sectors spent the whole session in negative territory, with the laggards of note including the influential hardware, internet, networking, software, semiconductor, telecom, biotech, drug, banking, broker/dealer, gold, and transportation sectors, to name a few... Leaders to the upside were exceptionally difficult to come by, but included the oil & gas services and managed healthcare groups, both of which closed the day in positive territory... This morning's economic reports, which included the NY Empire State Index at 25.3, Industrial Productivity at 0.7%, and Capacity Utilization at 76.6% provided a favorable read on the economy, but failed to supply much of a floor for the market... Nevertheless, Briefing.com maintains its moderately bullish longer-term view of the stock market due to the accelerating economy and the historically-low interest rates... With respect to the latter, the bond market extended its rally, with the 10-year note closing up 5/32, bringing its yield down to 3.76%... NYSE Adv/Dec 844/2438... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 640/2512.

• 18:26 ET After Hours Summary: MGM +12.7% (announces one time dividend payment), MXT +11.1% (earnings report), JILL +8.5% (earnings report), GEMS +5.9% (signs manufacturing license agreement), PTV +3.0% (doubles buyback, reaffirms Y04), MMM +2.7% (increases guidance).... THC -2.7% (earnings report), CYTC -3.1 ($220 mln convertible note offering), INSU -4.1% (restated earnings), PFCB -6.7% (delays 10-K release), OPTV -9.4% (earnings report).
• 17:50 ET Monday After Hours: prices levels vs. 4 pm ET: Sellers have taken a break from their recent efforts, which in today's session sent the major indices down 1.3-2.3%. The after hours trade has recovered some, with the S&P futures, at 1107, 4 points above fair value, and the Nasdaq 100 futures, at 1406, 3 points above fair value. The evening's announcements have been fairly benign, with the most supportive being 3M's (MMM) raised Q1 (Mar) and FY04 (Dec) EPS outlooks.
• 3 M (MMM) +3%: Conglomerate increases its quarterly guidance for the third consecutive time; Now sees Q1 (Mar) EPS of $0.86-0.88 (versus the Reuters Research consensus estimate of $0.82) and revenue growth exceeding 10% (with currency contributing about 5%); Also raises its FY04 (Dec) EPS projection to $3.52-3.62 from $3.46-3.52 citing volume growth of 5-8%

• 11:05 ET Floor Talk: In speaking with desks today the general theme is apathy meets fear in the form of strong selling. Given last week's events in Spain, the very real threat of terrorism affecting the markets has been revisited and thoroughly noted on desks in the form of strong hesitation. Institutional traders expect the market to visit some new lows with most contacts exhibiting frustration due to no real insights into where the next near-term catalyst will come from, especially in light of the sell-side having used up much of their ammunition with quick defenses of stocks following the most recent selloff.

• 08:04 ET EBAY estimates raised at Goldman 69.13: Goldman Sachs out with a positive note on eBay (EBAY) saying based on the results from their study of listings across all key measures the firm is raising their 1Q04 rev and EPS est's to $725m (up 52% y/y and 12% q/q) & $0.27 from $700m and $0.26, respectively. According to the firm, the strong seq growth tracked in 1Q04 is significant given that eBay benefited meaningfully from greater than normal seasonality in 4Q03 and raised prices in 1Q04. They note that although the shares are up 35% since Nov and are approaching the firm's implied value of $69-74, they continue to advise investors to own the stock as all key measures reinforce the investment thesis and growth outlook, but prefer investors add on weakness and be opportunistic on entry points.

• 07:31 ET Too early to bail on the semis -- CIBC: CIBC notes that the Semiconductor Index (SOX 485.10) has corrected 15% from its high, underperforming the market over the past two months. Somewhat weaker PC data, seasonally lower shipments of handsets and consumer devices, and new capital spending have prompted investors to question longevity of the cycle. However, the firm believes it is too early to roll out of the sector. The demand environment is very strong; PCs are down only seasonally from a very strong 4Q03, with a small inventory correction that is already past; handsets, networking, consumer, and even telecom have seen consistent improving demand. The firm continues to 'market weight' semis, favoring defensive and seasonal segments such as analog and digital media. AGR.a, IDTI, VTSS, ICST, MXIM, ISIL, ZRAN are poised for outperformance.

• 07:21 ET Barron's suggests oil supplies may plateau sooner than thought: Barron's discusses the oil markets with the benchmark crude currently going for $35 a barrel. According to the article, the futures market thinks the price will retreat below the $30 barrier next year and will be around $28 in five years. However, according to article, this time they may be wrong, as the price of crude has moved steadily higher, the market had assumed that each increase would be relatively short-lived. "Before the end of the decade is over, we will have $60 oil," accoring to Felix Zulauf, founding partner of Switzerland's Zulauf Asset Management. Mr. Zulauf suggests buying shares of European energy co's and holdings in second- and third-tier oil co's, like Anadarko, Apache and Devon. The major and secondary oil producers trade at below-market multiples, in part, because analysts still believe oil prices will decline next year and earnings will come in below 2004's results. ExxonMobil, for example, is expected to earn $2.40 a share this year and only $2.24 in 2005. Operations at companies such as Baker Hughes, Transocean and Schlumberger should fare well, though they trade at above-market earnings multiples and have moved up nicely in the past year Leigh Goehring, manager of the Jennison Natural Resources Fund, owns mid-cap names in the sector, including BJ Services, Weatherford and Smith International. These co's should increase earnings by 20% annually between now and the end of the decade, justifying their multiples.

• 07:05 ET MSFT: European Commision nears Microsoft antitrust ruling -- FT 25.38: The Financial Times reports that the European Commission has scaled down its demands for Microsoft (MSFT) to change its business practices in a move that some of the software co's opponents fear does not go far enough against Microsoft's alleged abuse of its Windows monopoly. Competition Commissioner Mario Monti is expected to win broad support from member states at a meeting on Monday and a final ruling is scheduled for Mar. 24 unless there is a deal beforehand. The paper states that rival RealNetworks (RNWK) is reportedly unhappy with the Commission's stance. Ed Black, CCIA president, described the proposal as "limited but pragmatic", adding: "Complete unbundling would have been our preferred option." However, national competition authorities meeting today to advise the Commission are believed to be broadly supportive of the draft decision.

Guy Boscart,