Liveblog Archief dinsdag 13 juli 2021

TOP NEWS
• JPMorgan profit surges on investment banking boost
JPMorgan reported a 155% jump in quarterly profit that trounced estimates as the largest U.S. bank gained from a surge in dealmaking and released more reserves it had set aside last year for potential pandemic-related loan defaults.

• PepsiCo raises full-year profit forecast as soda demand jumps
PepsiCo raised its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand for its sodas in theaters, restaurants and stadiums as they pull back crowds following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

• Boeing cuts 787 production as new structural problem discovered
Boeing said it would cut its 787 production rate as it works through a new production-related structural defect in its troubled twin-aisle airliner program.

• France fines Google 500 million euros over copyright row
France's antitrust watchdog slapped a 500 million euro fine on Alphabet's Google for failing to comply with the regulator's orders on how to conduct talks with the country's news publishers in a row over copyright.

• Musk set to take stand for second day in trial over SolarCity deal
Elon Musk will return to the witness stand for a second day to defend Tesla's $2.6 billion acquisition of SolarCity in 2016, a deal that shareholders say benefited the CEO at the electric vehicle maker's expense.


BEFORE THE BELL
Futures for U.S. stock indexes were little changed, with the dollar trading in a tight range and gold edging higher, as markets awaited the release of U.S. inflation data. European stocks eased, but British banks kept UK's FTSE 100 afloat after the Bank of England scrapped dividend curbs. China shares ended higher after data showed the country's exports grew at a much faster-than-expected pace. Oil prices rose as tight supply and expectations of a further draw in U.S. and global crude inventories provided support.​


STOCKS TO WATCH
Results
• JPMorgan Chase & Co: The largest U.S. bank reported a 155% jump in quarterly profit that trounced estimates as it gained from a surge in dealmaking and released more reserves it had set aside last year for potential pandemic-related loan defaults. The Wall Street behemoth said robust capital markets and a jump in M&A activity offset a slowdown in trading and weakness in consumer lending as the economy starts to reopen after the COVID-19 pandemic. Net income rose to $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, in the quarter ended June 30, from $4.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, a year earlier. Revenue fell 7% to $31.4 billion.

• PepsiCo Inc: The company raised its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand for its sodas in theaters, restaurants and stadiums as they pull back crowds following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The vaccine-aided reopening of public venues across the United States following a year of closures or strict capacity limits helped boost sales in PepsiCo's North America Beverage unit 24% in the second quarter. The company said it expects fiscal 2021 core earnings per share to increase 11%, compared with prior forecast of a high-single-digit increase. Net revenue rose 20.5% to $19.22 billion in the quarter ended June 12, above expectations of $17.96 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.​

Deals Of The Day
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc: The company's asset management arm and a company co-founded by private equity firm Warburg Pincus said they had jointly acquired logistics assets in China worth $488 million. Goldman Sachs Asset Management and New Ease, a new economy infrastructure investor, developer and manager, said they bought two collections of logistics real estate projects in gateway cities throughout China. The assets include institutional-grade, modern warehouse properties in the south eastern Chinese city of Kunshan and central Chinese cities Zhengzhou and Sanhe, and properties in central China's Henan and Hubei provinces to be developed into facilities to meet the demand from e-commerce companies and third-party logistics providers, the two investors said in a statement.

• Ivanhoe Capital Acquisition Corp: Electric-vehicle battery maker SES Holdings said it would go public through a merger with a blank-check company in a deal that values the combined entity at $3.6 billion. The deal with Ivanhoe Capital will fetch $476 million in proceeds for SES, including a private investment in public equity (PIPE) of $200 million from General Motors, Hyundai Motor, Geely Holding Group and others. Ivanhoe raised $276 million in its initial public offering, which was completed in January. The merger is expected to close in the third or fourth quarter this year, after which the combined company will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "SES".

• U.S. Well Services Inc: Oil billionaires Dan and Farris Wilks have taken around a 10% stake in hydraulic fracking firm U.S. Well Services, according to a regulatory filing, bringing their total investment to $47.5 million in the past month. The Wilks family office purchased $25 million of notes convertible into common shares in late June, worth some 25.7 million shares, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Around that same time, the Wilks brothers' pressure pumping firm, ProFrac, separately invested around $22.5 million in U.S. Well Services as part of a licensing agreement that allows them to build and operate electric frac fleets. "We believe these investments not only demonstrate the value of our intellectual property, but also offer further evidence that our industry is rapidly transitioning towards next-generation fracturing technology, led by electric fleets," said a spokesperson for U.S. Well Services in a statement.

In Other News
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd: Alibaba and Chinese state-backed firms are weighing bids for a stake in Unisplendour, a cloud computing infrastructure firm, that could fetch as much as $7.7 billion, people familiar with the matter said. Chip conglomerate Tsinghua Unigroup, which is saddled with some $31 billion in debt, is looking to divest its 46.45% stake in Shenzhen-listed Unisplendour as more of its bond payments are coming due, they said. Meanwhile, Alibaba will anchor a fund for startups in China's Greater Bay Area, the company announced via its Alibaba Entrepreneur Fund. The fund will have a targeted size of HK$283.27 million and is expected to close in the second half of 2022, the company added.

• Alphabet Inc: France's antitrust watchdog slapped a 500 million euro fine on Google for failing to comply with the regulator's orders on how to conduct talks with the country's news publishers in a row over copyright. The U.S. tech group must now come up with proposals within the next two months on how it would compensate news agencies and other publishers for the use of their news. If it does not do that, the company would face additional fines of up to 900,000 euros per day. Google said it was very disappointed with the decision but would comply. "Our objective remains the same: we want to turn the page with a definitive agreement. We will take the French Competition Authority's feedback into consideration and adapt our offers," the U.S. tech giant said. Meanwhile, Google has agreed to buy payments business Pring from backers including fintech firm Metaps as the U.S. tech giant pushes into Japan's rapidly growing market for cashless services.

• Boeing Co: The company said it would cut its 787 production rate as it works through a new production-related structural defect in its troubled twin-aisle airliner program. The company now forecasts delivering fewer than half of the lingering 100 or so 787s in its inventory this year - instead of the "vast majority" it had expected - as it continues forensic inspections and costly repairs to address quality flaws in the aircraft. Boeing did not disclose a new production rate for the 787 program, but said it would shift temporarily below the current rate of five jets per month. Separately, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said late on Monday that some undelivered Boeing 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue that the largest U.S. planemaker will fix before the planes will be delivered. ​

• Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP: Canada's Inter Pipeline did not engage in any improper defensive tactics to fend off a hostile takeover bid from Brookfield, the Alberta Securities Commission ruled on Monday. Brookfield launched an unsolicited bid for Inter in February, and last month revised its C$8.48 billion buyout offer to include an all-cash option. Calgary-based Inter modified its shareholder rights plan in response and launched a strategic review looking for other suitors, which culminated in rival bidder Pembina Pipeline making a competing C$8.3 billion all-stock proposal. Inter's board recommended that deal, which included a C$350 million break fee to shareholders. Brookfield, whose offer expires on Tuesday, filed a complaint last month with the ASC alleging Inter's tactics favoured Pembina but the regulator rejected the case.

• Citigroup Inc: National Australia Bank (NAB) said it was in talks with Citigroup to potentially buy the U.S. bank's Australian consumer business. NAB confirmed the talks in a brief statement to the stock exchange, adding that there was no certainty the discussions would lead to a deal. Seperately, Citi said on Monday it would sell its operations in Venezuela to Banco Nacional de Crédito, but did not disclose the terms of the deal. The sale to the Venezuelan bank, which has received regulatory approval, is expected to close in the next few weeks, Citi said. "Citi is committed to Latin America and will maintain a strong presence in the region," Citi Latin America Chief Executive Ernesto Torres Cantú said.

• Biogen Inc: The U.S. government on Monday started a review process for national Medicare coverage of Biogen's Alzheimer's drug, Aduhelm, that was recently approved by the country's health regulator. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services expects to give a proposed decision within 6 months and a final decision within 9 months. Aduhelm is priced at $56,000 per year, which could represent significant spending for the government's Medicare program for people aged 65 and older. Currently, coverage for the drug is determined at the local level by Medicare administrative contractors, who represent 12 jurisdictions across the country.

• GreenSky Inc: The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Monday said it has fined an Atlanta-based financial technology firm $2.5 million for processing and servicing loans to consumers who did not request or authorize them to do so. GreenSky is a mobile app that connects merchants and banks with customers who are usually seeking financing for mostly home-improvement projects. The CFPB also ordered the company to refund or cancel up to $9 million in loans it allowed outside merchants to promote and offer consumers. The order comes as part of ongoing scrutiny of fintech firms that automate the delivery and use of financial services via online platforms and devices, like mobile phones.

• Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp: The company received an unsolicited takeover bid from U.S. investment firm Starwood Capital Group, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. "The investment firm is proposing to acquire 100% of outstanding equity of the company for net cash consideration of about $18.70 per share of company's stock," Monmouth said, adding the board is evaluating the new unsolicited proposal. The deal values Monmouth at around $1.84 billion, according to Reuters calculation based on Refinitiv Eikon data.

• SolarWinds Corp: Software company SolarWinds says that unknown hackers exploited a previously unknown flaw in two of its programs to go after "a limited, targeted set of customers." The statement, issued over the weekend, did not identify the hackers involved. In a question-and-answer page appended to the statement, SolarWinds said the flaw was "completely unrelated" to last year's hack of government networks by alleged Russian spies, a sprawling espionage operation that used the Texas-based software company as a springboard to break into target networks. The page added that SolarWinds "is unaware of the identity of the potentially affected customers" caught up in the latest hacking campaign.

• Tesla Inc: Elon Musk will return to the witness stand on Tuesday for a second day to defend Tesla's $2.6 billion acquisition of SolarCity in 2016, a deal that shareholders say benefited the CEO at the electric vehicle maker's expense. The celebrity chief executive spent about six hours on the stand on Monday, focused mostly on describing his role in the negotiation process for SolarCity and its financial health. The two-week trial in the Court of Chancery in Wilmington, Delaware, is being overseen by Vice Chancellor Joseph Slights, who will decide the outcome in a written opinion, likely months after the trial ends.

• Twitter Inc: After more than 16 months of working from home, some Twitter employees in San Francisco and New York returned to the office on Monday as the company reopened its corporate campuses at 50% capacity in the two cities. Twitter employees shared pictures of their breakfasts and unmasked selfies in the elevator. One employee, referencing the food and music at the social media firm's San Francisco office, wrote on Twitter, "I am more stoked than I expected to be." While some employees expressed excitement, most want minimal time in the office. An internal company survey found that 45% of employees in San Francisco and 63% in New York intend to return to the office, even if just one day per week. The remaining intend to keep working remotely.​


ANALYSIS
Wall Street charges ahead but some option traders hedge against sharp pullback
Even with U.S. stocks scaling record highs day after day and Wall Street's "fear gauge" showing a low level of worry, some corners of the options market indicate investors are growing much more fearful of a sharp pullback than they have been in months.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Autoliv Inc: RBC cuts target price to $117 from $124, given the company’s growth trends, powertrain agnostic business model, and cash flow/margin profile.

• Cyteir Therapeutics Inc: JPMorgan initiates coverage with overweight rating, based on the company’s long-term potential of lead asset CYT-0851.

• Lightspeed POS Inc: National Bank of Canada raises target price to $110 from $90, saying the company has seen an accelerating growth profile under the physical reopening of retail and hospitality combined with its acquisitions over the past 18 months.

• Zoetis Inc: Cantor Fitzgerald raises target price to $238 from $210, factoring the company's growth potential, driven by its diversified business model.​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 (approx.) Core CPI mm SA for June: Expected 0.4%; Prior 0.7%
0830 (approx.) Core CPI yy NSA for June: Expected 4.0%; Prior 3.8%
0830 (approx.) Core CPI Index SA for June: Prior 275.72
0830 (approx.) CPI Index SA for June: Prior 268.550
0830 (approx.) CPI Index NSA for June: Expected 270.638; Prior 269.195
0830 (approx.) CPI mm SA for June: Expected 0.5%; Prior 0.6%
0830 (approx.) CPI mm NSA for June: Prior 0.8%
0830 (approx.) CPI yy NSA for June: Expected 4.9%; Prior 5.0%
0830 (approx.) CPI wage earner for June: Prior 263.612
0830 (approx.) Real weekly earnings mm for June: Prior -0.1%
1100 (approx.) Cleveland Fed CPI for June: Prior 0.3%
1400 Federal budget for June: Expected -$194 bln; Prior -$132 bln


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Conagra Brands Inc: Expected Q4 earnings of 52 cents per share
Goldman Sachs Group Inc: Expected Q2 earnings of $10.24 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 AngioDynamics Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0815 PepsiCo Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
0830 JPMorgan Chase & Co: Q2 earnings conference call
0830 Knoll Inc: Shareholders Meeting
0930 Conagra Brands Inc: Q4 earnings conference call
0930 Goldman Sachs Group Inc: Q2 earnings conference call
1000 Fastenal Co: Q2 earnings conference call
1000 First Republic Bank: Q2 earnings conference call
1000 Herman Miller Inc: Shareholders Meeting
1000 Landcadia Holdings III Inc: Shareholders Meeting


EX-DIVIDENDS
Apogee Enterprises Inc: Amount $0.20
Campbell Soup Co: Amount $0.37
InterDigital Inc: Amount $0.35

Een sterke start van de week met vrijwel alle bekende indices die we volgen op een nieuw record. Daar komen nu de Dow Jones en de DAX bij na gisteren. De CAC 40 blijft wat achter deze keer, op Wall Street zien we dat de Dow Transport het niet meer trekt om fors hoger te geraken. Beleggers hebben blijkbaar goeie hoop dat de cijfers die vanaf nu naar buiten komen over Q2 goed zullen uitpakken.

Update 13 juli:
De start van de week werd positief, zoals vaker na een sterke vrijdag krijgen we een vervolg omhoog op maandag. Meestal leveren de indices daarna wat in om net op of onder de records te bewegen. Sinds gisteren zien we records bij de S&P 500 wat al het 12e record binnen 15 sessies is en bij de Nasdaq die er ook al 12 op 15 sessies neerzet. Nu volgt ook de Dow Jones die net onder de 35.000 punten sluit met een nieuw record op slotbasis, de hoogste stand ooit komt uit op 35.091 punten en blijft het eerste richtpunt nu. Naast de Nasdaq zet ook de Nasdaq 100 een nieuw record neer. Op Wall Street verloor de Dow Transport wel wat gisteren en deze index blijft dan ook duidelijk achter op de rest.

Hier in Europa zien we dat de DAX plots ook meedoet na een tijd achter te blijven, de DAX sluit op een nieuwe recordstand en dat is nu de 15.790,58 punten. De AEX sluit ook de sessie af op een nieuw record, dat is nu 738,44 punten. De Franse CAC 40 blijft wel nog ver onder de hoogste stand ooit die uitkomt op 6687 punten, de index sloot gisteren op 6559 punten.

Een sterke maandag dus met veel records en dus veel goeie hoop dat alles goed zal verlopen de komende weken als de kwartaal resultaten naar buiten komen. Vandaag krijgen we al 2 grootbanken met cijfers, dat zijn JP Morgan en Goldman Sachs. Zijn die cijfers goed genoeg om de koers van de aandelen te ondersteunen? Of valt alles dan toch een beetje tegen en moet er wat water bij de wijn nu de waarderingen de pan uit rijzen? Maar eens bekijken of de markt dit kan volhouden met die lange reeks records en de extreem lange rally die al loopt vanaf april-mei vorig jaar (2020).

Onzekerheid delta variant en hoop op meer steun:
Dat het sentiment zo optimistisch blijft is vreemd, door dat de deltavariant van het coronavirus toch meer risico's met zich meebrengt voor de economie probeert men in ieder geval te vergeten op dagen als gisteren. De totale heropening van de economie zal volgens velen moeilijker worden en vooral wat langer op zich laten wachten.

Aan de andere kant denken beurs strategen dat daardoor de FED en andere centrale banken de verruiming niet zullen stoppen en dan weet je meteen ook weer hoe men daarover denkt. Kortom, het is en blijft een beurs met volop hoop op meer met de kans dat het een keer niet meer zal lopen zoals men dat gewend is geraakt. De beurzen vertrouwen nog altijd volop in de steun van centrale banken, dus alles wat het besluit over tapering (afbouwen) vertraagt wordt als positief gezien momenteel.

Als u de signalen wilt ontvangen wordt dan vandaag nog lid via de nieuwe zomeraanbieding voor €25 die loopt tot 1 september ...

Maand JUNI werd afgerond met een mooie winst:
De maand juni zit erop het werd al de 7e maand op rij dat alle abonnementen de maand met winst afronden en dat in toch een redelijk moeilijke markt. Ik zal ook deze maand met voorzichtig handelen resultaat te behalen, u kunt meedoen door lid te worden.

Bij Guy Trading kijk ik ook naar wat aandelen waar ik iets mee kan doen. Schrijf u dus op tijd in, ik zal in ieder geval het momentum kiezen om in te stappen.

Maak nu gebruik van de zomeraanbieding tot 1 SEPTEMBER voor €25 (Polleke Trading €35 en COMBI-Trading voor €50) https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Hieronder het resultaat van deze maand (JUNI) en dit jaar (2021):

Marktoverzicht:

Technische conditie AEX:
De AEX zet na een matige start een nieuw recordslot neer op 738,44 punten terwijl de index gedurende de sessie even tot 739,40 punten geraakte wat dan de hoogste stand ooit is. Weerstand wat betreft de AEX nu eerst de 740 en later de 750 punten, daarboven de 758 en de 765 punten.

Steun nu eerst de 736 punten met later de 728 en de 723 punten. De eerste echte steun zien we rond de zone 717-718 punten waar we nogal wat raakpunten zien uitkomen. Een slot van pakweg 2-3 sessies onder de 717 punten kan de index richting de 712, de 708 of zelfs tot rond de 702-703 punten brengen. De komende dagen worden hoe dan ook weer belangrijk voor wat betreft de AEX index. Let nu ook op het 50-daags gemiddelde dat de index al 2 keer goed kon opvangen, het 50-MA komt nu uit op 719 punten.

Technische conditie DAX:
De DAX kent een sterke sessie en zet de stijging van vrijdag door om op een nieuw hoogste slot ooit uit te komen. De DAX zit dus aan de bovenkant van de range met op 15.807 punten nu de hoogste stand ooit. Het slot op 15.790 punten is nu dus het nieuwe record op slotbasis wat betreft de DAX.

Steun blijft nog altijd de belangrijke zone 15.500-15.550 punten en dat is al geruime tijd het geval, daar net onder zien we een extra vangnet rond de 15.400-15.450 punten waar de index nu al 2 keer kon draaien. Onder de 15.400 punten ziet het er slecht uit voor wat betreft de DAX, dan moeten we kijken naar eerst de 15.300 en later de 15.200 en de 15.000 punten. Weerstand nu de 15.810 punten, later kijken we naar de 15.900 en de 16.000 punten.

S&P 500 analyse:
De S&P 500 geraakt weer tot een nieuw record op 4384,63 punten (slotbasis), de hoogste stand kwam gisteren uit op 4386,68 punten. Dat zijn nu al 12 records in 15 sessies, het is ook record nummer 38 dit jaar (2021) voor wat betreft de S&P 500. Als we de grafiek bekijken dan zien we dat de index de lijn over de toppen aanraakt zodat het wel eens wat moeilijker kan worden vanaf nu. Ik verwacht nu weerstand rond de 4400, de 4425 en de 4450 punten.

Steun nu eerst de 4350 punten met later de bodem van donderdag die rond de 4290 punten uitkomt. De oude toppen rond de 4240 punten en het 50-daags gemiddelde dat nu rond de 4225 punten zijn de volgende richtpunten omlaag. We weten dat het snel kan gaan met de bewegingen op Wall Street, de vraag blijft natuurlijk waar de top die voor een langere tijd zal vastliggen uitkomt.

Analyse Nasdaq:
De Nasdaq zet opnieuw een record op slotbasis dat nu uitkomt op 14.733 punten. De hoogste stand ooit komt ook een fractie hoger uit op 14.761 punten en dat wordt nu de eerste weerstand voor wat betreft de Nasdaq. Later zien we rond de 14.850 en de 15.000 punten weerstand.

Steun nu eerst de 14.500 punten met later de bodem van vorige week donderdag rond de 14.370 punten met daaronder de 14.211 punten waar de oude toppen uitkomen. Het lijkt allemaal ver weg maar we hebben bij deze index al vaker gezien dat het snel kan gaan dus 100-200-300 punten bewegingen kunnen zo uit het niets tot stand komen. Denk er ook aan dat de Nasdaq boven de 14.500 punten moet blijven om de lopende opgaande beweging vast te houden. Het kan vanaf nu wel eens wat moeilijker worden op Wall Street en vooral bij de Nasdaq (tech aandelen).

Euro, olie en goud:
De euro zien we nu rond de 1,186 dollar, de prijs van een vat Brent olie komt uit op 75,3 dollar terwijl een troy ounce goud nu op 1810 dollar staat.

De LIVEBLOG en Twitter:
Via de LIVEBLOG en tussendoor ook via mijn Twitter account laat ik gedurende de dag ook wat grafiekjes met korte uitleg voorbij komen over de markt. Op Twitter kunt u mij volgen via @USMarkets dan kunt u deze snelle informatie die ik deel uiteraard ook inzien .... https://twitter.com/USMarkets , ook opvallende beursfeiten komen er vaak langs !

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart