Liveblog Archief dinsdag 4 oktober 2022

TOP NEWS
• EU approves phone charger reform, forcing Apple to adapt
The European Parliament approved new rules that will introduce in the European Union a single charging port for mobile phones, tablets and cameras by 2024, a world first that is expected to affect iPhone maker Apple more than its rivals.

• Boeing doesn't expect MAX 10 to gain FAA approval before summer 2023 -letter
Boeing does not anticipate winning approval for the 737 MAX 10 before next summer, according to a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) letter sent on Monday that intensifies concerns about the company's timeline for deliveries.

• U.S. keeps losing antitrust court battles but few expect pullback
The U.S. government has been hit with four painful losses at antitrust trials recently but legal experts do not expect the Biden administration's regulators to slow efforts to make American business more competitive.

• Apple iPhone exports from India top $1 billion in 5 months - Bloomberg News
Apple's iPhone exports from India crossed $1 billion in five months since April, Bloomberg News reported, reflecting the tech giant's growing bet on the South Asian nation amid New Delhi's push for local manufacturing.

• Private firms, foundations to deposit $1 billion at minority, community lenders-Treasury
The U.S. Treasury will announce on Tuesday that a coalition of private firms and foundations will deposit $1 billion into minority-owned and community development financial institutions to boost their lending firepower in underserved communities.


BEFORE THE BELL
Wall Street futures were higher as retreating U.S. Treasury yields bolstered demand for stocks, while investors await the job openings and factory orders data due later in the day for clues on how much further the Fed would go with interest rate hikes. European shares rose sharply in a broad-based rally, led by chipmakers, travel and leisure companies. Japan's Nikkei jumped nearly 3% to record its best session in more than six months. A weaker dollar pushed gold prices up. Oil prices gained ahead of OPEC+ meeting to discuss supply cuts.


STOCKS TO WATCH
• Amazon.com Inc: Russia fined TikTok for failing to delete content that violates Russian laws on 'LGBT propaganda' and streaming service Twitch for hosting a video interview with a Ukrainian political figure that Moscow said contained 'fake' information. The fines mark the latest step in Moscow's long-running dispute with Big Tech, with penalties over content, demands over data storage and some outright bans. Twitch, owned by Amazon, was fined 4 million roubles, the court said. News agencies said the case had been drawn up in response to Twitch hosting an interview with Oleksiy Arestovych, and adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Twitch was fined 3 million roubles earlier this year for hosting another Arestovych interview. TASS reported that Twitch faces two new fines of up to 8 million roubles for not deleting what Russia considers unreliable information about the course of its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

• Apple Inc: The company’s iPhone exports from India crossed $1 billion in five months since April, Bloomberg News reported, reflecting the tech giant's growing bet on the South Asian nation amid New Delhi's push for local manufacturing. The outbound shipments of India-made iPhones, mainly to Europe and the Middle East, are set to reach $2.5 billion in the 12 months through March 2023, almost double when compared to the year through March 2022, the report said, citing sources. The devices exported from India from April to August this year comprise iPhone 11, 12 and 13 models, Bloomberg said. The report comes as Apple seeks to shift some areas of iPhone production from China to other markets including India , the second biggest smartphone market in the world, where it is also planning to assemble iPad tablets.

• Austerlitz Acquisition Corp I & Austerlitz Acquisition Corp II: Two blank-check companies backed by veteran investor Bill Foley, which together raised over $2 billion in their share sales, plan to shutter by the end of the year, the firm's sponsors said on Monday, as market turmoil curbs appetite for deals. The companies, named after the Battle of Austerlitz – regarded as one of Napoleon's greatest military triumphs – have failed in finding merger partners despite dozens of negotiations, the sponsors said. Both the companies went public in 2021. Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) typically have two years to hunt for a company to take public. However, the sponsors said it was in the shareholders' best interests to return the cash this year instead of waiting for the expiration of the deadline in March 2023, adding that they would seek their approval for the purpose.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc: Greg Abel, who is next in line to succeed Warren Buffett as the company’s chief executive, spent more than $68 million on the conglomerate's shares last week, after selling his stake in the company's Berkshire Hathaway Energy unit for $870 million. In four regulatory filings, Abel, 60, said that on Sept. 29 he purchased 168 Class A shares of Berkshire, each costing more than $405,000, on behalf of a family trust. Abel had previously owned five Class A shares and 2,363 Class B shares, according to regulatory filings. Some analysts and shareholders had suggested that Abel should have a greater stake, reflecting his roles as a Berkshire vice chairman and Buffett's likely successor as chief executive. A Class B share is worth about 1/1,500th of a Class A share. The purchases were made three months after Abel sold his 1% stake in Berkshire's energy unit, for which the Omaha, Nebraska-based parent took a $362 million charge to capital.

• BHP Group Ltd: The company expects to receive three more bulk carriers powered partly by liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the next six to nine months, part of the company's plans to cut emissions from shipping, a senior executive said. BHP, which received its first two LNG-fuelled vessels earlier this year, has locked in some term supplies of LNG buffering the company from volatile prices and is studying the potential for biofuels, Fergus Eley, BHP's Head of Maritime Enterprise, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Singapore International Bunkering Conference and Exhibition (SIBCON) 2022. The world's largest miner and shipper of dry bulk commodities is targeting net zero greenhouse gas emissions from its operations by 2050 and started using LNG to fuel ships carrying products from Australia to China this year. BHP will receive delivery of the three additional carriers from shipowner Eastern Pacific Shipping by mid-2023, Eley said.

• Boeing Co: The airplane maker does not anticipate winning approval for the 737 MAX 10 before next summer, according to a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) letter sent on Monday that intensifies concerns about the company's timeline for deliveries. Boeing faces a December deadline to win regulatory approval for the MAX 10, which is slightly larger than current 737 MAXs in service, as well as for a smaller variant, the MAX 7. Unless it gains an extension from Congress, Boeing must meet new modern cockpit-alerting requirements that could significantly delay the planes' entry into service. "With regard to the 737-10, Boeing's current project plan timeline has the 737-10 receiving an amended type certificate no sooner than summer 2023," two sources quoted acting FAA Administrator Billy Nolen as saying in a letter to Senator Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee.

• Carlyle Group Inc: A consortium of private equity funds led by the company is ready to take a stake of less than 10% in a new media company holding Serie A's broadcasting rights, a copy of the consortium's letter seen by Reuters showed on Monday. The funds, which have dubbed their consortium 'Love for Football', would pay at closing a significant part of the price to Serie A clubs and the league itself, with the rest due over the following three years. The 'Love for Football' consortium said in the letter that based on a preliminary assessment their offer would value Serie A's media company more than that belonging to Spain's Liga or France's Ligue 1 by applying a higher multiple to core profit.

• Duke Energy Corp, Evergy Inc & Sempra Energy: Jeff Rosenbaum, who led investments in the power and utilities sectors for prominent activist investor Elliott Management Corp, has left the firm, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. West Palm Beach, Florida-based Elliott has been a prolific investor in regulated utilities, pushing for change at the U.S. power companies. Rosenbaum, who was a senior portfolio manager at Elliott, spearheaded many of those bets. His role included shaping campaigns and helping to manage existing investments and pursue new opportunities in the sector. Rosenbaum left in recent days, according to the sources, who requested anonymity as the matter is confidential. The reason behind Rosenbaum's exit could not be learned. Departures among senior managers are rare at Elliott, which is widely feared and respected in corporate circles and likes to keep a low profile.

• Energy Transfer LP: A natural gas pipeline operated by the company and located south of Waverly, Illinois was shut after a fire early on Monday, the Jacksonville-Morgan County Office of Emergency Management agency said in a statement. "Some residents were required to be evacuated from their homes for a brief period of time; however, everyone has been allowed to return," it added. The fire was allowed to safely burn out and no injuries were reported, the office said. "The emergency management team from Morgan County, Waverly Fire Department and Energy Transfer are currently working the incident," it said, adding that the cause of the fire will be investigated.

• Evercore Inc: British telecom group Vodafone has picked the investment bank to sell a stake in its fixed network in Spain, newspaper Cinco Dias reported, citing unidentified market sources with knowledge of the process. The process was still at an "embryonic stage", Cinco Dias said, citing the sources. By selling the network, the group seeks to reduce the pressure on its Spanish business and deflect criticism from investors, the report said. Cut-throat competition in the telecom industry is leaving Vodafone struggling to keep up just as the transition to a faster 5G mobile network requires heavy investment. Vodafone said on Monday it had started talks to merge its business in Britain with CK Hutchison OOO1.HK and has recently announced the acquisition of smaller rival Nowo in Portugal.

• HSBC Holdings PLC: The banking group is considering selling its Canada business, one of the biggest international banking brands in the country, a spokesperson for the bank said, as it looks to beef up returns pressed for by its largest shareholder. "We are currently reviewing our strategic options with respect to our wholly owned subsidiary in Canada," the bank said in an emailed statement. The review is at an early stage, the spokesperson said, and no final decision has been taken but one option would be a sale of the lender's 100% stake in HSBC Bank Canada. The disposal would represent the latest in a series of divestments at HSBC, which once styled itself the 'world's local bank'. HSBC in May last year announced it would exit mass market banking in the United States, and in June likewise said it would sell its French retail business as part of a plan to improve profits and fend off calls from China's Ping An Insurance Group to split off its Asian business.

• Poshmark Inc: South Korean e-commerce company Naver announced a $1.2 billion purchase of the U.S. fashion resale platform but investors questioned the timing of its biggest acquisition amid a slowing economy and sent its shares tumbling. Naver, which is also South Korea's top search engine, will pay $17.90 cash for each Poshmark share and acquire all of its outstanding stock in a foray into the U.S. e-commerce market. Poshmark is the largest fashion consumer-to-consumer platform in North America, with 80 million registered users led by Millennial and Gen Z active users, Naver executives said in a conference call. According to Activate Consulting, the $80 billion U.S. market in online fashion "re-commerce" is expected to grow by 20% annually to $130 billion by 2025. The enterprise value of Poshmark is about $1.2 billion. Including consideration for Poshmark's cash, Naver's total investment is $1.6 billion, a Naver spokesperson said.

• Ryanair Holdings PLC: The airline flew 15.9 million passengers in September, its third busiest month ever and up 13% on pre-COVID levels as the low-cost carrier consolidates its position as Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers. The jump in traffic meant Ryanair also flew more passengers in September than in any of its busiest summer months before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. Until this year, its busiest month was August 2019 when it carried 14.9 million passengers. The Irish airline, which unlike many airlines kept its pilots and crew up-to-date with their flying hours during the pandemic to take advantage of the swift rebound this year, flew a record 16.9 million passengers in August 2022. The average proportion of empty seats per flight rose last month to 6%, up from 4% in August and 3% in September 2019.

• Rivian Automotive Inc: The electric vehicle maker said on Monday it produced 7,363 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois and delivered 6,584 vehicles in the quarter ended Sept. 30. The company also reiterated its full-year production target of 25,000 vehicles, sending shares up in post-market trade. The Amazon.com Inc-backed electric vehicle company produced 4,401 and delivered 4,467 vehicles in the preceding quarter. At its most recent quarterly report, Rivian had said it expected higher operating loss for the full year due to rising costs. Separately, Georgia state officials said they were disappointed after a local court rejected a joint proposal to secure local incentives for the electric vehicle $5-billion manufacturing plant in the state.

• Sony Group Corp: The company’s gaming business is looking at fresh investment to bolster its push into PC and mobile, a senior executive said, as the PlayStation 5 maker competes for talent with deep-pocketed rivals and as industry dealmaking heats up. "Further investments in areas that will strengthen the expansion on to PC, on to mobile and into live services, that's definitely a possibility for us," Hermen Hulst, head of PlayStation Studios, told Reuters in an interview without providing further detail. Sony, whose studios are known for single player console games such as "Spider-Man" and "God of War", has outlined ambitious plans to release titles on PC and mobile and offer live service games, which provide continuous updated play. The radical shift is reflected in its recent deals including the $3.6 billion acquisition of Bungie, the studio behind the multiplayer "Destiny" franchise, which Sony operates outside its PlayStation Studios network.


ANALYSIS
Credit Suisse’s turnaround just got a lot tougher as market reels
Swiss lender Credit Suisse Group, battered by scandals and losses, is racing through a restructuring plan. Wild market swings and a social media storm are making that task increasingly difficult.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Carmax Inc: Stephens cuts rating to equal weight from overweight, by expecting selling, general and administrative expenses to persist in the near term, limiting earnings growth.

• Envestnet Inc: D.A. Davidson cuts target price to $64 from $70, saying severe YTD market headwinds pressuring outlook.

• Gilead Sciences Inc: JPMorgan raises rating to overweight from neutral, to reflect the increased visibility on the company’s HIV franchise and an emerging oncology franchise.

• Inotiv Inc: Jefferies initiates coverage with buy rating; target price $27, saying with rapid M&A, the company has transformed to a multi-service discovery and preclinical CRO from a small, niche player.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
1000 Durables ex-defense, R mm for Aug: Prior -0.9%
1000 Durable goods, R mm for Aug: Prior -0.2%
1000 Factory orders mm for Aug: Expected 0.0%; Prior -1.0%
1000 Durables ex-transport R mm for Aug: Prior 0.2%
1000 Nondefense cap ex-aircraft R mm for Aug: Prior 1.3%
1000 Factory ex-transport mm for Aug: Prior -1.1%
1000 JOLTS job openings for Aug: Expected 10.775 mln; Prior 11.239 mln


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 Acuity Brands Inc: Q4 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
AECOM: Amount $0.15
Cisco Systems Inc: Amount $0.38
Comcast Corp: Amount $0.27
Cousins Properties Inc: Amount $0.32
CVB Financial Corp: Amount $0.20
Erie Indemnity Co: Amount $1.11
Gap Inc: Amount $0.15
Helios Technologies Inc: Amount $0.09
Toro Co: Amount $0.30
Vail Resorts Inc: Amount $1.91

Goedemorgen,

We zien de contouren al mooi van een echte "Bear Market Rally" maar de vraag is nu vooral tot waar die doorzet? Ik ga altijd uit van 3 tot 5% maar in een volatiele markt als deze kan het ook net zo goed 7 tot 8% worden en zelfs 10%. Dat het geen fabeltje hoeft te zijn weten we want we hebben er al 1 gehad van die orde eerder dit jaar. We houden overal rekening mee en we weten maar al te goed dat de beurzen tot er meer duidelijkheid is fors op en neer zullen blijven bewegen. Verder zien we dat de Brent olie ook een sterke dag liet zien, vanmorgen zien we de prijs van een vat rond de 89,3 dollar uitkomen. Verder zakt de 10-jaars rente nog wat verder terug, die staat nu op 3,6%. De euro herpakt zich nu ook wat en klimt richting de 1 op 1 ofwel pariteit ... Maandag heb ik wel winst kunnen nemen op de long posities die vorige week donderdag werden opgenomen ... Zo starten we de maand oktober in ieder geval goed voor de leden ...

Om mee te doen met onze signalen kunt u nu gebruik maken van de nieuwe aanbieding voor nieuwe leden tot 1 december, dan kunt u in ieder geval kennis maken met onze signaaldiensten via de Tradershop ... Let op, er loopt nu een nieuwe aanbieding tot 1 DECEMBER voor €35 ...

Update dinsdag 4 oktober:
Vanmorgen maar eens bekijken tot waar de markt kan doorstijgen want de futures staan in ieder geval opnieuw hoger, zo te zien komt er nog een procent bij en dan zitten we al in de range van die 3 tot 5% waar ik het over had in de vorige updates. Dat zien we nu bij alle indices, een goeie 3 tot 5% boven de bodem en dan moeten we opletten voor het vervolg. Als het een zeer heftige "Bear Market Rally" wordt dan kan de stijging uitlopen tot 7 a 8% en soms zelfs tot 10% en daar zit nu het gevaar want als het zo wordt zal ook dat heel snel gaan. Zo niet, en het blijft bij die 3 tot 5% dan moeten we nu al gaan uitkijken om wat short posities uit te zoeken maar dan wel met een beheersbare stoploss en nog steeds met kleine posities in deze zeer volatiele markt.

Uiteindelijk won de Dow Jones 765 punten (2,65%) met een slot op 29.491 punten terwijl de S&P 500 index 93 punten (2,6%) winst boekte met een slot op 3678 punten. De Nasdaq won 240 punten (2,3%) met een slot op 10.815 punten, de Nasdaq 100 won 258 punten (2,35%) met een slot op 11.230 punten. Verder zien we een winst van 3,4% bij de Dow Transport index terwijl de SOX index 3,75% winst boekte maandag.

In Europa sluit de AEX 5 punten (0,8%) hoger met een slot op 645,8 punten terwijl de DAX 95 punten (0,8%) hoger geraakte met een slot op 12.209 punten. Verder was er een winst van 0,55% bij de CAC 40 index, de BEL 20 won slechts 4 punten (0,15%).

De euro loopt nu gestaag verder op tot rond de 0,986 dollar en komt weer wat dichter bij de 1 op 1 (pariteit). De Brent olie kende ook een sterke dag met een winst van 3,5 dollar en staat vanmorgen weer wat hoger op 89,3 dollar. De 10-jaars rente in de VS zien we rond de 3,6% en zakt weer wat verder terug. Ook dat is een kwestie van tijd voor dat de 10-jaars rente weer zal oplopen tot boven de 4%, het is een fase dat de omgevingsfactoren even wat lucht geven maar dat kan snel weer gaan veranderen. Opletten dus en vooral alert blijven in beide richtingen.

Signaaldiensten:
We blijven voorzichtig handelen waar dat kan, de maand oktober werd goed opgestart met een mooie winst die we behalen op de long posities die werden gesloten. We kiezen dan vooral de bekende indices en bij Guy Trading samen met COMBI-Trading ook wat bekende aandelen en de Brent olie. We handelen ook nog steeds met kleine posities omdat de markt te volatiel blijft. Dat lukt zo prima dit jaar in deze enorm volatiele en moeilijke markt.

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de nieuwe aanbieding die loopt tot 1 DECEMBER 2022. Schrijf u nu snel in voor €35 via de Tradershop en kies uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop

Marktoverzicht:
De start van de "Bear Market Rally" is heftig en er zit mogelijk nog iets meer in, let er wel op dat deze beweging omhoog alle eigenschappen vertoont van een "Bear Market Rally" waardoor ik verwacht dat de markt snel weer kan gaan draaien. Uiteindelijk won de Dow Jones 2,65% terwijl de S&P 500 met 2,6% winst de sessie afsloot. De Nasdaq won deze keer 2,3% terwijl de SOX index het met een winst van 3.75% veel beter deed maandag.

In Europa ook plussen, de DAX won na een slechte start uiteindelijk 0,8% met een slot boven de 12.000 punten. De AEX won 0,8% met een slot op 645,8 punten. Ook in Europa moeten we nu gaan opletten, de markten kunnen na deze stevige opleving snel weer de weg omlaag terug vinden.

Dow Jones:
De Dow Jones zet een sterke sessie neer met een plus van 765 punten (2,65%) en voor de Dow Jones is dat best heftig. Het slot komt uit op 29.491 punten en dat is toch nog een eind onder de 30.000 punten die we als belangrijk zien. Weerstand nu rond de 29.500-29.600 punten met later de 30.000 punten. Verder zien we weerstand rond de 30.500-30.600 punten en rond de 31.000 punten.

De eerste steun komt nu uit 29.000 punten, later rond de 28.700-28.750 punten steun. Bij een verdere daling zien we steun rond de 28.500 en de 28.000 punten.

AEX index:
De AEX die rond de 630 punten begon herpakt zich sterk in de loop van de sessie en sluit 5 punten hoger (0,8%), het slot komt nu uit op 645,8 punten. De index lijkt onderweg om de 652-655 punten op te zoeken waar we de volgende weerstand zien uitkomen, verder rond de 665 en de 675 punten weerstand. We letten zeker op het momentum waar er een draai kan komen, de rally kan dus kort maar heftig zijn.

Steun zien we nu eerst rond de 640-641 punten, later steun rondom de 628-632 punten waar de bodems uitkomen.

DAX index:
De DAX die rond de 11.894 punten de bodem van de sessie neerzette wat niet ver boven de bodem van vorige week is zet later op de dag ook een rally in met een slot op 12.209 punten en dus ver boven de 12.000 punten grens. De index lijkt een sterke draai in te zetten met als doel de 12.400 punten te bereiken waar we de oude bodems zien uitkomen uit juli. Dat het snel gaat zien we weer, dat is de kracht van een "Bear Market Rally" en daarvoor had ik gewaarschuwd. De vraag is nu of de index die 12.400 punten zal halen en of de index er boven geraakt. Zo ja, dan kijken we naar de 12.600 punten als volgende weerstand met daar snel boven de 12.800 en de 13.000 punten.

Steun zien we nu eerst rond de 12.000 punten, later de bodemzone rond de 11.800-11.850 punten. Later steun rond de 11.600 en de 11.500 punten.

Nasdaq Composite:
De Nasdaq sluit na een positieve start van de week en maand 240 punten hoger (2,3%) en sluit af op 10.815 punten, de laagste stand van de sessie zien we rond de 10.578 punten uitkomen en dat is rond de bodem van dit jaar die we op 10.565 punten zien uitkomen. Een stevige rebound vanaf de bodem deze keer en zoals ik al aangaf de start van een "Bear Market Rally" die de index tussen de 3 en 5% hoger kan zetten voor dat er een nieuwe daling op gang komt.

Steun nu eerst rond de 10.700 punten maar de bodem van dit jaar rond de 10.565 punten blijft het richtpunt bij een nieuwe daling. Verder steun rond de 10.500, de 10.250 en de 10.000 punten. Weerstand nu eerst rond de 10.800-10.850 punten met later de zone 11.000-11.100 punten. Verder zien we rond de 11.250-11.300 punten en de 11.500 punten weerstand.

Overzicht resultaten deze maand september en dit jaar (2022):

De signaaldiensten:
De long posities werden maandag met winst gesloten zodat we de maand oktober ook positief starten, na de mooie winst in september doen we rustig verder en beginnen we goed deze maand. We blijven altijd zoeken naar een mooi momentum om opnieuw in te stappen en dat lukt in deze moeilijke markt nog altijd redelijk goed zoals u kunt merken aan de resultaten al het gehele jaar 2022.

Meedoen met onze signalen kan nu via de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 DECEMBER 2022 en dan voor €35. Ga snel naar onze Tradershop en kies daar uw abonnement via de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop dan staat u vandaag nog op de lijst en ziet u alle details over de posities die eventueel open staan.

Met vriendelijke groet,
Guy Boscart