Liveblog Archief donderdag 9 juli 2020

TOP NEWS
• 'Disaster' U.S. earnings loom, but investors try and look beyond
U.S. companies are preparing to open their books on a quarter that is set to show the biggest earnings fall since the financial crisis, leaving investors looking for light at the end of the tunnel.
• Tesla 'very close' to level 5 autonomous driving technology, Musk says
U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla is "very close" to achieving level 5 autonomous driving technology, Chief Executive Elon Musk said, referring to the capability to navigate roads without any driver input.
• SAP shares jump after better-than-expected quarterly results
Shares in SAP jumped to the top of Germany's blue-chip index after the software maker confirmed its outlook and said its quarterly business activity recovered from the effects of a global lockdown faster than expected.
• Trading, underwriting soften profit plunge for some U.S. banks
Trading and underwriting revenue could provide some comfort for big Wall Street banks that begin reporting results next week, although second-quarter profits likely plunged because of the coronavirus pandemic's impact on lending.​
• Rooftop revolution: Coronavirus chill upends solar power industry
The booming rooftop solar panel industry nosedived overnight when the coronavirus forced homeowners to rein in spending and keep their distance from would-be installers.


BEFORE THE BELL
Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Dow indexes were slightly lower ahead of the weekly jobless claims report. European stocksrose as software giant SAP signalled a rebound in its business from a coronavirus hit and China's stock markets extended a rally, supporting risk sentiment in the continent. The dollar was little changed, while gold prices edged down. U.S. crude dipped as virus fears outweighed signs of a recovery in U.S. gasoline demand.


STOCKS TO WATCH
Results
• SAP SE (SAP). Shares in the software maker jumped to the top of Germany's blue-chip index after it confirmed its outlook and said its quarterly business activity recovered from the effects of a global lockdown faster than expected. Total revenue in the period increased by 2% to 6.74 billion euros. The company confirmed its 2020 outlook for an operating profit, adjusted for special items, in a range of 8.1 billion-8.7 billion euros, a fall of 1%-6% at constant currencies. Operating profit increased by 7% to 1.96 billion euros as SAP slowed hiring new staff and cut costs, including by spending less on travel and staging more virtual events.

In Other News
• Carnival Corp (CCL). The company's AIDA Cruises said it would resume sailing operations in August, months after cruise operators were forced to pause voyages due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Germany-based cruise line said it has introduced a variety of coronavirus preventive measures to complement existing health and hygiene standards, as it restarts operations.​
• Chubb Ltd (CB). The company said on Wednesday it is lobbying the U.S. government to insure businesses for losses in future pandemics, while giving the insurance industry a small portion of the business, jumping into a debate over how to insure such disasters. Unlike some in the industry that want the risk to be borne entirely by the government, Chubb wants the industry to play a role in any government-backed insurance plan, Chief Executive Evan Greenberg told Reuters.
• Ford Motor Co (F). The company said its China vehicle sales increased 3% in April-June from a year earlier, its first quarterly sales rise in the world's bigggest auto market in almost three years. China sales for the second quarter climbed to 158,589 units, Ford said in a statement, attributing the rise to a stronger vehicle lineup including new sport-utility vehicles and locally-made luxury Lincoln cars and "strong demand following the lifting of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions".
• Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD). The company plans to make more of its drug remdesivir available for Germany and Europe from autumn and will decide how much each country gets based on the rate of infection, the drugmaker's Germany boss told a German magazine. Meanwhile, Gilead said on Wednesday it has started an early-stage study of its antiviral COVID-19 treatment remdesivir that can be inhaled, for use outside of hospitals. The company said the trial, which will enroll about 60 healthy Americans aged between 18 and 45, will test the drug particularly in those cases where the disease has not progressed to require hospitalization.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). More than 170 nonprofit groups on Wednesday called for Johnson & Johnson to stop selling its talc-based Johnson’s Baby Powder world-wide, citing concerns that it contains cancer-causing asbestos, according to a statement from advocacy group Black Women for Wellness. The groups, which include educational institutions such as Emory University and activist groups such as Greenpeace, among others, also want the company to recall existing inventory in North America. Separately, the drugmaker aims to begin clinical testing of its COVID-19 vaccine in the coming weeks and produce billions of doses in 2021, chief executive officer Alex Gorsky said on Wednesday, but cautioned that it will take more than one vaccine to rein in the virus.
• Talos Energy Inc (TALO). Mexico's state oil company Pemex and a private consortium led by U.S.-based Talos Energy have been instructed to come to an agreement detailing how they will jointly develop a large offshore oil find, the energy ministry said on Wednesday. The energy ministry said in its statement that Pemex and Talos Energy have 120 working days to present a unification agreement to jointly develop the Zama reservoir in a way that would maximize its value. Both Pemex and Talos have claimed that a majority of the reservoir's riches lie it its block, even as Pemex has yet to drill any exploratory wells on its side while Talos has drilled four.
• Tesla Inc (TSLA). The electric vehicle maker is "very close" to achieving level 5 autonomous driving technology, Chief Executive Elon Musk said, referring to the capability to navigate roads without any driver input. "I'm extremely confident that level 5 or essentially complete autonomy will happen and I think will happen very quickly," Musk said in remarks made via a video message at the opening of Shanghai's annual World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC). "I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level 5 autonomy complete this year."
• Twitter Inc (TWTR). Two U.S. Republican lawmakers accused the social media company on Wednesday of being biased against conservatives and demanded information about the social media platform's reactions to two tweets by President Donald Trump. "Twitter’s discrimination against conservative voices is extremely alarming. These actions give rise to concerns that the company is systematically engaged in the disparate treatment of political speech and is deceiving users of the platform by not uniformly applying its terms of service," they wrote.
• Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) & Lyft Inc (LYFT). Most ride-hail workers in Seattle are part-time drivers whose earnings are roughly in line with the city's median, a study of data provided by Uber and Lyft showed, defying some perceptions of drivers working full-time for little pay. The study examined 14,000 drivers during one week in October 2019 and showed that 75% of Seattle drivers work fewer than 20 hours per week, with only 5% working full-time.


ANALYSIS
Furloughs at U.S. legacy airlines could help low-cost carriers like Southwest
U.S. legacy airlines with lackluster employee demand for early exit packages face large furloughs in the fall, signaling higher post-pandemic labor costs because union contracts require airlines to furlough in reverse order of seniority. This could create a competitive boost for budget carriers including Southwest Airlines, whose lower cost structure could help it win market share with cheaper fares, experts said.


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
• Albemarle Corp (ALB). RBC raises target price to $70 from $66, believing the company is a clear-cut leader in the lithium space given their market-leading scale, complete integration from resource (hard rock and brine) to conversion to product end markets and years of unique chemical experience producing battery grade Lithium Hydroxide and Lithium Carbonate at the low end of the cost curve.
• City Holding Co (CHCO). Piper Sandler resumes coverage with neutral rating and target price of $63, after the company’s Q1 earnings fell short of consensus expectations largely due to a higher provision of $8.0 million to account for the expected economic impact of COVID-19, while the company also implemented CECL (Current Expected Credit Losses) during the quarter resulting in a $2.7 million initial increase in reserves.
• Gap Inc (GPS). JPMorgan raises target price to $14 from $13, citing takeaways from their chat with Gap’s CEO as growing the company’s brands profitably led by Old Navy & Athleta and amplifying brand heat through innovative partnerships like Kanye/Yeezy.
• Honeywell International Inc (HON). Credit Suisse raises target price to $166 from $158, expecting Q2 industrial earnings to beat expectations that were set during the Q1 reporting season.
• Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL). Jefferies raises target price to $27 from $22, following the company’s Q3 results, where they saw how a flexible, co-manufactured business model with quick promotional/marketing shift ability and essentially no assets/capex needs can weather a revenue storm.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 Initial jobless claims: Expected 1,375,000; Prior 1,427,000
0830 Jobless claims 4-week average: Prior 1,503,750
0830 Continued jobless claims: Expected 18.950 mln; Prior 19.290 mln
1000 Wholesale inventory, R mm for May: Expected -1.2%; Prior -1.2%
1000 Wholesale sales mm for May: Prior -16.9%


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
No major S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report. ​


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0830 Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA). Q3 earnings conference call
1615 Simulations Plus Inc (SLP). Q3 earnings conference call
1700 WD-40 Co (WDFC). Q3 earnings conference call


EX-DIVIDENDS
AT&T Inc (T). Amount $0.52
Brady Corp (BRC). Amount $0.21
General Mills Inc (GIS). Amount $0.49
Gentex Corp (GNTX). Amount $0.12
Intuit Inc (INTU). Amount $0.53
Lennar Corp (LEN). Amount $0.12
Lennar Corp (LENb). Amount $0.12
Lincoln National Corp (LNC). Amount $0.40
NetApp Inc (NTAP). Amount $0.48
New York Times Co (NYT). Amount $0.06
OGE Energy Corp (OGE). Amount $0.38
Rent-A-Center Inc (RCII). Amount $0.29
Simon Property Group Inc (SPG). Amount $1.30
UDR Inc (UDR). Amount $0.36
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ). Amount $0.61

Goedemorgen
Met Apple als leider opstomend naar een marktwaarde van maar liefst 2000 miljard dollar (nu 1625 miljard) en in de achtervolging Amazon dat al de 1500 miljard mijlpaal bereikt sinds gisteren. Ertussen zit Microsoft dat nu 1585 miljard beurswaarde bereikt en in een stille achtervolging zien we ook Alphabet al tot net boven de 1000 miljard geraken. De PE van Microsoft gaat naar 36, die van Alphabet naar 31 en zien we Apple naar een PE van 30+, wat betreft Amazon zitten we op 150 keer de winst op dit moment. Is dat duur? Voor velen ja, voor anderen blijkbaar niet want het maakt allemaal niet uit, als de aandelen maar omhoog gaan dan is het goed ...

En toch de logica niet uit het oog verliezen in deze fase, het gaan nog om de PE's die voor de crisis over 2020 werden berekend, het 2e kwartaal moet nog komen en de rest van 2020 ook met verwachtingen en dus de realiteit ... Dan nog ASML die onze AEX omhoog drijft er even bijpakken, we zitten daar met een PE van maar liefst 57 als ik naar de te verwachten winst van dit jaar kijk en dat omreken naar de slotkoers van gisteren ... Dat zijn de getallen beste lezers, daar moeten we het mee doen, daar moeten we bij denken hoe duur de markt nu staat, en we moeten terugkijken naar eerdere bubbels en hoe die afliepen nadien ...

Hoe dan ook, gisteren wat terugval eerst maar later kwamen de Robin Hoods weer de markt op en trokken de Nasdaq naar weer een +150 op slotbasis en zo staan we weer een trapje hoger, wel bereikte de Nasdaq deze keer geen hogere top dan de dag ervoor, maar net niet al blijft dat een klein zwakte puntje. We moeten vandaag maar eens kijken wat er op het programma staat, de futures doen in ieder geval niet zoveel vanmorgen, vlak tot iets hoger. De AEX zal het verlies van gisteren bij opening wegwerken zo te zien want Europa sloot gisteren wel lager.

Ik blijf strategisch in de markt, het loopt wisselend tot nu toe en dan bedoel ik tussen vlak en wat verlies maar de posities lopen nog. Gisteren wel weer naar ongeveer vlak, vanmorgen weer wat verlies maar ik probeer tijd te pakken om te wachten op minimaal een correctie van 2 tot 3% op de indices, dat zit er zeker nog in de komende dagen of volgende week. Ik zal niet te vroeg uitstappen in ieder geval maar als het moet neem ik wel de stop.

Meedoen kan, ik probeer de leden te coachen in deze fase, ok het loopt al een paar weken stroef en moeilijk maar ik vertik het om op te geven en de handdoek in de ring te gooien, zo ben ik niet en velen weten dat, volhouden is een van mijn sterke kanten en ik pak mijn moment wel. De vorige posities deden het uiteindelijk heel goed met een mooie winst. Dat verwacht ik nu eigenlijk ook wel maar we moeten wat tijd en dus geduld hebben.

Doe mee via de aanbieding, nu €39 tot 1 SEPTEMBER en u krijgt de coaching en de signalen, ga naar https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en schrijf u in ...

Tot straks ... Guy

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
New Jersey adopted a stringent coronavirus face-mask order on Wednesday, and New York City unveiled a plan to allow public school students back into classrooms for just two or three days a week, as newly confirmed U.S. COVID-19 cases soared to a daily global record.

China's factory gate prices fell for a fifth straight month in June as the coronavirus pandemic weighed heavily on industrial demand, although signs of a pickup in some parts of the sector suggest a slow economic recovery remains intact.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced measures to assist Hong Kong citizens start a new life in Australia, including extending visas by five years, after Beijing imposed a new security law on the Asian financial hub.


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
The European Commission has struck deals with drugmakers Roche and Merck KGaA to secure supplies of experimental treatments for COVID-19, a Commission source told Reuters on Wednesday.

France's Alstom will propose concessions to European regulators on Thursday, including the sale of a French rail factory, in an effort to win early antitrust approval for its planned purchase of Bombardier's transportation unit, three sources familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.

Airbus deliveries rose 50% in June compared with May and reached their highest level since the coronavirus crisis spread to Europe in March, but the accelerating recovery failed to prevent first-half deliveries from sliding to a 16-year low.


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
3I Infrastructure PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Agrana Beteiligungs AG Q1 2021 Earnings Call
Bisichi PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
eDreams Odigeo SA Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Fielmann AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Heidelberg Pharma AG Q2 2020 Earnings Call
Hornbach Baumarkt AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Kaufman & Broad SA Q2 2020 Earnings Release
Kvaerner ASA Q2 2020 Earnings Call
Land Securities Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Ocean Yield ASA Q2 2020 Earnings Release
Octopus Apollo VCT PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
OptiBiotix Health PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Oxford Technology Venture Capital Trust PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Pets at Home Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Softline AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Triple Point VCT 2011 PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Tryg A/S Q2 2020 Earnings Call
Union Financiere de France Banque SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Workspace Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Worldwide Healthcare Trust PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)
0600 Germany Exports mm SA for May: Expected 13.8% Percent; Prior -24.0%
0600 Germany Imports mm SA for May: Expected 12.0% Percent; Prior -16.5%
0600 Germany Trade Balance SA for May: Expected 5.2 bln EUR; Prior 3.2 bln EUR
0600 Germany Current Account - Balance NSA for May: Prior 7.7 bln EUR
0730 Sweden Household Consumption yy for May: Prior -10.0%
0730 Sweden Household Consumption mm for May: Prior -4.8%
0900 Germany Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 9.37
0900 France Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 8.92
0900 United Kingdom Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 8.97
0900 Italy Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 8.51
0900 Spain Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 8.73
0900 Portugal Overall Comprehensive Risk for Q3: Prior 9.00
1000 Germany TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 47.40
1000 France TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 40.35
1000 United Kingdom TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 40.66
1000 Italy TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 35.77
1000 Spain TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 33.30
1000 Sweden TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 47.45
1000 Belgium TR IPSOS PCSI for Jul: Prior 40.47