Saturday 7 November 2026 • Week 45 • Weekly overview
Black Thursday for the chipsby Trader Guy
What a week. On Thursday 5 November the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%, the heaviest daily decline since April 2025, led by the chip sector and the AI frontrunners. On Friday a partial recovery followed thanks to strong US jobs data, mainly with the SOX and the Nasdaq 100 making up part of Thursday's loss. Still, most indices close the week in the red, except for the European markets, which were less directly hit by the chip shock.
01 • Closing session Week 45
Jobs data lift the market out of the hole for a moment
The closing session of Friday 6 November was all about recovery after Thursday's blow. A strong US jobs report pushed yields higher, but it also gave investors confidence that the economy is holding up, and that led to buying in the hardest hit corner of the market. The S&P 500 closed 0.31% higher at 7,377 points, the Dow Jones gave up another 0.46% and ended at 51,286 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.09% to 24,579 points. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.35% to 26,990 points and the SOX, the chip index, bounced 4.21% to 9,390 points after Thursday's collapse.
On a weekly basis the picture remains gloomy for the US tech corner, with the SOX as the biggest loser at 12.15% and the Nasdaq 100 down 4.91%. In Europe the AEX held up relatively well with a weekly loss of 1.22% at 1,120.6 points, while the BEL 20 and the CAC 40 actually ended the week with gains, with the BEL 20 as the strongest index of the 10 this week.
Closing levels week 45
Index
Close
Friday
Week
S&P 500
7,377
+0.31%
-2.68%
Dow Jones
51,286
-0.46%
-0.94%
Nasdaq Composite
24,579
+1.09%
-3.37%
Nasdaq 100
26,990
+1.35%
-4.91%
SOX WEAKEST
9,390
+4.21%
-12.15%
Russell 2000
2,754
+0.89%
-2.05%
AEX
1,120.6
-0.77%
-1.22%
BEL 20 STRONGEST
5,996
-0.32%
+2.66%
CAC 40
8,139
-0.81%
+2.13%
DAX
25,820
-1.92%
+0.01%
Click the image to view it at full size.
The view of Trader Guy
The last day of the week was once again rather erratic. Most indices lost ground again, although there was also a technical recovery, a recognisable rebound in the indices that had fallen the most on Thursday, including the SOX index, the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100. The margin calls of Thursday, where a broker automatically closes positions or demands extra collateral after a fast price drop because the loan is no longer covered, and which therefore strengthen the decline further, are still hitting investors who took very big risks on the way to the top. The sectors that were under the heaviest fire were the chip companies but also the AI frontrunners.
We ourselves also got a slap on the wrist on Thursday, because we had positions open when the decline began. We got out very quickly and took the stop loss to prevent worse.
After that we made up more than half of the loss on Friday with a few new positions close to the bottom, so that in total we did suffer some damage but we were certainly not hit by the worst of it. We are now sitting reasonably safe with 1 position left on a broad index where some extra recovery may still come during the coming week.
I now have to think carefully about what the next step will be. I certainly do not rule out a further decline, but it is starting to look like a correction, usually a decline of 10% to just under 20% from the top, and it is also starting to look like a bear market, a decline of 20% or more from the top where the trend also turns and the price dives below the 200 day average.
Then you also often have to deal with bear market rallies, strong but temporary upswings of 5% or more within that falling trend without the trend itself turning around, and they can be quite violent. Extra attention will be needed to find the right momentum.
Keep following us because I think it will be necessary, certainly for investors and traders who have little experience with this kind of market. I have been through quite a few of them myself in all the years I have been involved with the stock market.
A few weeks ago I already warned that a correction in the markets could come quite quickly, and that up to 40%. With the SOX we already have it now, and the Nasdaq 100 already went down as much as -15% from the top. We have not yet talked about the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, which are still holding up reasonably well but could follow with the decline later this month. I do not expect these indices to go that deep. I estimate that we have to reckon with a decline from the top of between 10 and 15% and possibly an outlier up to a maximum of 20%. From the top, mind you.
In this market coaching is something many investors need, so follow US Markets until 1 January through the offer, so that you do not have to miss any of this. I will be on top of it as sharply as possible in the coming weeks and again, it will be more than necessary.
02 • Market themes Week 45
4 themes of the week
Black Thursday for chips and AI
On Thursday 5 November the heaviest trading day for tech stocks since April 2025 took place. The Nasdaq lost 5.5% after Tuesday's election results brought uncertainty about the construction of new data centers in the United States. In 10 states a total of 41 local votes on data center restrictions were on the agenda, and with 1 exception voters voted against further expansion. Precisely the states with the biggest AI data center plans, including Texas, Ohio and Georgia, chose a Democratic governor or senator, which made investors fear delays in the billion dollar investments of the large technology companies.
Nvidia and Qualcomm both lost more than 9%, with Nvidia alone seeing almost $450 billion of market value evaporate. AMD, Micron, ARM and Applied Materials even fell by double digits and Tesla and SpaceX also dropped more than 9%.
Friday, jobs data and a partial recovery
On Friday the picture turned somewhat, but only to a limited extent compared with Thursday's numbers. A US jobs report that came in well above expectations gave investors confidence that the economy can absorb Thursday's shock, and briefly sent buyers back to the hardest hit chip and AI names. The SOX gained 4.21% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.35%, although the Dow Jones still lagged with a loss of 0.46%.
At the same time the strong jobs data pushed yields higher, with the 10 year yield rising to a level of 4.86%, because investors now take into account a slower pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The fear gauge VIX gave up 9% to 25.64 points, a sign that the panic of Thursday eased somewhat.
Margin calls and forced selling worldwide
The shock was not limited to the United States. In Asia the broad MSCI Asia Pacific index fell by as much as 5.3%, the South Korean Kospi even lost 8.8% and had to halt trading temporarily. Hedge funds with large, concentrated positions in chip and AI stocks faced margin calls (forced sales), especially investors in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, Asian equity hedge funds fell an average of 9.4% in October, with some funds that focus specifically on China losing up to 11%. The move shows how quickly a price decline can reinforce itself once investors with borrowed money have to scale back positions.
Interest rates and the next step of the Federal Reserve
With strong jobs data in hand, the next rate step of the Federal Reserve becomes more exciting again. The 10 year yield now stands at a level of 4.86% and the 30 year yield at 5.26%, both higher than a week earlier. A higher rate makes borrowing more expensive for the companies that grow fastest on debt, precisely the AI and chip companies that were already under fire this week. Next week several US inflation figures such as the CPI take centre stage, a figure that can weigh heavily in the next decision of the Fed.
03 • Company news
What else stood out
Besides the broad market movement, there was also plenty to note at the level of individual stocks this week. Airbnb shot up after strong quarterly results and an optimistic outlook for 2026. Intel reported a 78% revenue jump in its data center division, but the stock still took a beating because of a weaker than expected outlook, hindered by the worldwide memory shortage that drives up prices.
Scottish Mortgage, a well known British investment trust, turned out to have sold part of its stake in SpaceX at its half year results and even said goodbye to Tesla completely. At Qualcomm the problem was not in demand but in supply, CEO Cristiano Amon said that the company's data center division is growing but is held back by insufficient production capacity.
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Results Guy Systeem Trading, 12 closed months and interim result Nov 2026
Month
Result
November 2025
€3,801
December 2025
€1,204
January 2026
€151
February 2026
€3,202
March 2026
€2,197
April 2026
-€940
May 2026
€1,268
June 2026
€601
July 2026
€837
August 2026
€931
September 2026
€896
October 2026
€1,506
November 2026 (interim result 7 November)
-€608
Total up to and including the interim result of November 2026
€15,046
Results are an indication based on closed positions, no guarantee for the future.
04 • Technical Analysis
6 charts, with mainly the chip damage in view
S&P 500 Index SPX
FRIDAY +0.31%WEEK -2.68%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The S&P 500 gained 0.31% on Friday and closed at 7,377, but on a weekly basis a loss of 2.68% remains. The price is below the EMA-20, which comes out at 7,620, and the SMA-50, which comes out at 7,679, and is now also approaching the SMA-200, which comes out at 7,325, the last support layer of the long term trend. We see lower tops after a clear top around 7,800 to 7,850, so a correction, and the direction is now bending down. The resistance is at 7,580 and 7,690, the support at 7,300.
In short
The price is below the EMA-20, which comes out at 7,620, and the SMA-50, which comes out at 7,679, the short term picture has clearly weakened.
The SMA-200, which comes out at 7,325, is close by, the long term trend is under pressure for the first time in months.
The support at 7,300 holds.
The RSI at 35 is approaching the oversold zone, which leaves room for a counter move.
The MACD is below the signal line and the momentum is negative, so the selling pressure is not gone yet. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price closed below the lower band, which points to a stretched move but is not a buy signal in itself.
If the support at 7,300 holds, we expect a counter move towards the resistance at 7,580. The price does not yet get above that resistance as long as the recovery stays weak. A closing price below 7,300 invalidates that scenario.
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI
FRIDAY -0.46%WEEK -0.94%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The Dow Jones gave up 0.46% on Friday and closed at 51,286, a weekly loss of 0.94%. This week the price fell below the EMA-20, which comes out at 52,055, and the SMA-50, which comes out at 52,069, which now lie close together, while the SMA-200, which comes out at 50,680, just keeps the long term trend upright. Above the price lies a resistance cluster from 52,750 to 53,250, the most important support is at 50,300. In the chart we see a possible double top around 53,250 in the making, after which the price bends into a correction.
In short
The price fell below both the EMA-20, which comes out at 52,055, and the SMA-50, which comes out at 52,069, an early signal of weakening short term momentum.
Above the SMA-200, which comes out at 50,680, the long term trend just stays upright.
A possible double top around 53,250 holds further recovery towards the old peak back for now.
The support at 50,300 holds and forms the safety net.
The RSI is below the middle, the MACD is just below the signal line and the momentum is negative, so the strength is fading. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price is in the lower half of the band without touching it, so no extreme signal.
As long as the support at 50,300 holds, we expect a sideways move below the resistance cluster. The price does not yet get above the resistance of 52,750. A closing price below 50,300 invalidates that scenario and also puts the SMA-200, which comes out at 50,680, under pressure.
Nasdaq 100 Index NDX
FRIDAY +1.35%WEEK -4.91%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The Nasdaq 100 recovered 1.35% on Friday to 26,990, but remains 4.91% behind on a weekly basis. This week the price fell below the EMA-20, which comes out at 28,827, the SMA-50, which comes out at 29,633, and for the first time in months below the SMA-200, which comes out at 27,984, a clear negative signal for the longer term. The resistance is at 28,200 and 28,900, the support at 26,180. The pattern is a confirmed double top around 30,750, followed by a correction with lower tops.
In short
The price fell below the SMA-200, which comes out at 27,984, so the long term trend has turned for the first time in months.
The EMA-20, which comes out at 28,827, is now also below the SMA-50, which comes out at 29,633, an early negative signal in the medium term.
Friday's rebound of 1.35% shows that buyers see the zone around 27,000 as a buying opportunity.
The RSI at 31 is close to oversold level, which increases the chance of a further counter move.
The MACD is below the signal line and the momentum is strongly negative, so a recovery is possible but the selling pressure is not gone yet. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price closed just below the lower band, which points to a stretched move but is not a buy signal in itself.
For the coming sessions we expect a counter move towards the resistance at 28,200, as long as the support at 26,180 holds. The price only really moves forward if the SMA-200, which comes out at 27,984, is recaptured. A closing price below 26,180 invalidates the recovery scenario.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX
FRIDAY +4.21%WEEK -12.15%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The SOX, the US chip index, recovered 4.21% on Friday to 9,390 after Thursday's collapse, but remains 12.15% behind on a weekly basis, by far the weakest of the 10 indices followed. The price is below the EMA-20, which comes out at 10,896, the SMA-50, which comes out at 11,695, and the SMA-200, which comes out at 10,831, so the technical picture has turned negative on all time frames. The resistance is at 10,450 and 11,000, the support at 8,400. This week the index fell below the months long trading range between 10,450 and 12,100, a confirmed breakout to the downside on the closing price.
In short
The price is below the EMA-20, which comes out at 10,896, the SMA-50, which comes out at 11,695, and the SMA-200, which comes out at 10,831, the picture has clearly turned negative.
The index fell below the months long trading range between 10,450 and 12,100.
Friday's strong recovery of 4.21% shows that at the lower levels there is some willingness to buy again.
The RSI at 32 is already close to oversold, which gives room for further recovery in the short term.
The MACD is below the signal line and the momentum is deeply negative, so the selling pressure is not gone yet. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The band is extremely wide and the price closed just below the lower band, a sign of violent swings but not a buy signal in itself.
The old support at 10,450 is now resistance and the price does not yet get above that resistance. As long as that stays so, the picture remains negative with the support at 8,400 as the most important limit to the downside. A closing price above 10,450 invalidates that negative scenario.
AEX Index AEX
FRIDAY -0.77%WEEK -1.22%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The AEX closed 0.77% lower on Friday at 1,120.6 and thereby loses 1.22% this week. The price is below the EMA-20, which comes out at 1,130, but still just above the SMA-50, which comes out at 1,119, while the SMA-200, which comes out at 1,060, is well below the price and the long term trend therefore remains firmly upward. The resistance is at 1,148, the support at 1,115 and 1,105. In the chart a possible double top is forming around the resistance of 1,148.
In short
The price fell back below the EMA-20, which comes out at 1,130, a short term warning after the rise of the past weeks.
Above the SMA-200, which comes out at 1,060, the long term trend remains pointed upward.
A possible double top around 1,148 keeps further recovery in check for now.
The support at 1,115 and 1,105 holds.
The MACD is still above zero but below the signal line, the momentum is slightly negative and the RSI is below the middle. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The band is relatively narrow, so the market is calmer than with the US indices, and the price closed just below the lower band without that being a buy signal in itself.
For the coming sessions the main question is whether the support at 1,115 holds, because then we see a rebound from that support towards the EMA-20, which comes out at 1,130. The price does not yet get above the resistance of 1,148. A closing price below 1,105 invalidates that scenario.
DAX Index DAX
FRIDAY -1.92%WEEK +0.01%
Click the chart to view it at full size.
The DAX lost 1.92% on Friday and closed at 25,820, although the weekly balance remains almost unchanged at +0.01%. The price is still above the EMA-20, which comes out at 25,734, the SMA-50, which comes out at 25,556, and the SMA-200, which comes out at 24,925, so the uptrend remains intact on all fronts. The resistance is at 26,600, the support at 24,750.
In short
The price is still above the EMA-20, which comes out at 25,734, the SMA-50, which comes out at 25,556, and the SMA-200, which comes out at 24,925, so the uptrend remains intact.
Friday's decline of 1.92% does break with the strong recovery of the past weeks.
The momentum is still clearly positive, which points to continued buying power over a somewhat longer term.
The price does not yet get above the resistance of 26,600.
The RSI is around the middle and the MACD is above the signal line, with a clearly positive momentum. The Bollinger Bands show how far the price is from its 20 day average and how restless the market is. The price is above the middle line and well below the upper band, a calm picture.
For the coming sessions the support at 24,750 remains the key, as long as it holds the upward picture stays intact. We then expect a new test of the resistance at 26,600. A closing price below 24,750 invalidates that scenario.
05 • Market psychology
Stick to your plan
Weeks like this show why market psychology is at least as important as the technique of a chart. Trader Guy stresses it again and again, a plan is only a plan if you also follow it at the moment it hurts. When Thursday's decline began, he himself took the stop loss on the open positions, no discussion, no hoping for recovery, simply following the plan. That is precisely the difference between investors who survive a correction and investors who talk themselves into trouble.
Anyone who trades without a plan is extra vulnerable to the emotions that a week like this brings up, fear of losing everything at the low point and greed to jump back in too quickly as soon as the 1st candle turns green. That is why US Markets has put the emphasis on discipline for years, fixed rules for entry and stop, and accepting that not every trade is a winner. That structure makes it easier to stay calm when the SOX loses more than 12% in 1 week and recovers 4% on Friday. Trader Guy, who has followed the market for decades, has seen this pattern more often and knows that precisely this phase in the market calls for extra discipline.
Yields rose after Friday's strong jobs data, while Brent oil lost heavily on a weekly basis because of ample supply and the recent OPEC+ decisions. Gold and silver gained in a restless week, and the VIX fell 9% on Friday but is still 32% higher on a weekly basis because of Thursday's shock.
07 • Outlook Week 46
Inflation figures set the tone
The coming week is mainly about the US inflation figures. On Tuesday 10 November the US CPI is released, the market expects 0.3% on a monthly basis against 0.6% last time, and 3.7% on a yearly basis. The Dutch inflation figures are also on the agenda on Tuesday, and on Wednesday the German CPI follows.
In addition the US earnings season continues, with several tech companies and retailers still to report. For the market the main question is whether Friday's calm holds, or whether the uncertainty about AI spending pops up again.
Macro agenda for the coming week
Tuesday 10 November, Dutch CPI on a yearly basis, US CPI. Wednesday 11 November, German CPI on a monthly basis.
Risk warning: Investing involves risks, you can lose all or part of your investment. This newsletter is for information purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice.
All information in this newsletter has been checked as well as possible, but much of it is now generated with AI, so some errors may still have slipped in.
Sources: Investing.com, TradingView, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, TheStreet.com and own price data USMarkets.nl.
Disclaimer: deze update is geen beleggingsadvies. Alle informatie in deze update werd zo goed als mogelijk gecontroleerd, maar veel wordt tegenwoordig gegenereerd met behulp van AI, dus er kunnen eventueel nog foutjes tussen zitten.
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