Wo 16 sep. 2020, 08:25

Wake-up call: Veel onzekerheden blijven, markt reageert op hoop

Goedemorgen
De Dow Jones sloot nagenoeg vlak de sessie af gisteren terwijl de Nasdaq verder opliep en 1,2% hoger uitkwam, de SP 500 deed het met een winst van 0,5% ook goed gisteren. De AEX won 3,5 punten terwijl de DAX 24 punten hoger uitkwam. Op zich weer een TOP-8 dagje zo te zien, de zwaargewichten trokken de markt weer eens. Toch blijft Wall Street in de probleem zone als we het projecteren naar pakweg 2 weken geleden toen er nog records werden gemaakt bij vooral de Nasdaq en de SP 500. De Nasdaq 100 staat nog altijd meer dan 1000 punten onder de top, de SP 500 zo'n 180 punten onder de hoogste stand ooit.

Beleggers richten zich nu op de uitspraak van Trump dat er over 3 tot 4 weken een vaccin is en op de FED die bijeenzit om te vergaderen over de rente. Er wordt verwacht dat er geen veranderingen komen in het beleid van de Amerikaanse centrale bank. Wel zal men luisteren naar wat FED-voorzitter Jerome Powell zal vertellen vanavond, vooral is men benieuwd of er nieuwe stappen zullen komen om iets te doen tegen de crisis ook al deed de FED al heel wat de afgelopen tijd. De vraag is of er nog veel ruimte overblijft en dat terwijl er al problemen komen om de belangrijke inflatie op pijl te kunnen houden.

Verder kijken we naar het verloop vandaag, we hebben 2 sterke dagen achter de rug bij de Nasdaq, de andere indices weten het nog niet zo goed en blijven achter. Het kan bij de Nasdaq natuurlijk een technische reactie zijn op de grote terugval, dat is vaak zo dat beleggers dan denken de aandelen goedkoop in te kunnen kopen maar door de BUBBEL is dat nog lang niet het geval. De overwaardering was ongekend en dat blijft ook nu nog zo ... Bij andere indices is dat minder het geval maar na de enorme rally vanaf midden maart kunnen alle indices nog 5 tot 10% lager als het daarbij blijft, dus blijf opletten voor teveel optimisme en zeker bij de technologie aandelen ...

Wat kunnen we doen wat betreft nieuwe posities:
Zoals ik al aangaf in de vorige update werden er wat kleine posities opgenomen, de lopen dus nog en ik zal zien tot waar ik die kan aanhouden. De leden weten de details en wachten dus op een signaal om te sluiten. Men kan eventueel nog mee door lid te worden, er loopt dus een aanbieding voos €39 tot 1 NOVEMBER ...

Lid worden kan via de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 NOVEMBER, lid worden kan nu voor €39, een proefabonnement. Om u in te schrijven ga naar https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en dan staat u meteen op de lijst.

Verder zijn we de maand september goed begonnen, zie hieronder de tabel met het resultaat van de gesloten posities .... Systeem Trading staat nu al op €866 winst en we gaan voor meer want september duurt nog even ...

Tot later ... Guy

Vandaag, 08:27

Wake-up call: Volatiliteit behoorlijk, drang omlaag blijft aanhouden

Goedemorgen
Een zeer bewogen dag op Wall Street gisteren waar we alle kanten van het spectrum hebben gezien, de volatiliteit in beide richtingen blijft aanwezig waardoor de uitslagen groter worden. De indices konden in de plus eindigen maar veel overschot was er niet op slotbasis, zeker niet na de sterke opening waar er even meer dan 1% winst stond.

Vanmorgen zien we via de futures wat hogere standen maar het loopt niet over, we zullen zien welke richting de markt zal kiezen in de loop van de dag. Technisch bekeken zie ik nog altijd een omlaag gerichte markt nu alle indices onder hun 50-daags gemiddelde staan, ook is het zo dat de markt breekbaar aan het worden is want we zien dat de dalingen als die er komen heel snel gaan. Ook gisteren was dat weer het geval, je ziet een mooie plus staan maar in no-time draait deze markt naar verkopen en staan we weer onderaan op de grafieken waar het nu belangrijk wordt om de laatste steunpunten te verdedigen. Lukt dat niet, en zakken de indices onder de bodems van deze week waar niet veel voor nodig is dan staat alles er snel 1 tot 2% onder. Iets om in de gaten te houden en om gepositioneerd te blijven met posities gericht in deze richting.

Berichten over de onderhandelingen voor een nieuw steunpakket om de economie in de VS te redden blijven zorgen voor grote uitslagen op Wall Street, men leeft dus tussen hoop en vrees op dit moment en dat zorgt voor de volatiliteit tussendoor maar nogmaals, de markt wil eerder omlaag dan omhoog en dat betekend dat we in een andere fase terecht zijn gekomen dan enkele weken geleden waar er toen maar 1 richting aan de orde was. Beleggers zien dat de problemen niet opgelost geraken maar spelen dus ook in op een berg nieuw geld dat richting de markt komt. Nogmaals, op veel vlakken zie ik dat de negatieve trend zich door aan het zetten is en dat de bodems van eerder deze week onder druk komen te staan.

Dat zei ook de minister van Financiën in de VS, er is een nieuw steunpakket nodig, hij zet in op 2,4 biljoen dollar. Tot nu toe krijgt hij het niet voor elkaar want de democraten blijven dwars liggen en willen het over de verkiezingen heen tillen merken we. Ook FED voorzitter Jerome Powell zei nogmaals dat het waarschijnlijk noodzakelijk zal zijn en zeker nu er een 2e golf van het virus gaande is en we nog altijd moeten wachten op een vaccin.

Als we Trump moeten geloven, wat we beter niet kunnen doen, dan komt dat vaccin er volgende week al, tenminste dat zei hij pakweg 3 weken geleden dat het vaccin er binnen 3 tot 4 weken zou zijn. Zo zie je maar weer ... Overigens zie ik aan de berichten dat Trump zich zal verzetten mocht hij verliezen. Het wordt nog een spannend einde van 2020 als we dat allemaal meepakken, de zenders in de VS geraken er niet over uitgepraat en wil 80-85% van de media dat hij weg moet uit het Witte Huis ...

Wat kunnen we doen wat betreft nieuwe posities:
We zitten in de markt met wat short posities die ik met deze daling nog even wil aanhouden. De maand verloopt tot nu toe goed en we staan overal op winst. Er komen zeker meer kansen aan de komende periode, daar ben ik van overtuigd gezien het verloop van de markt momenteel. U kunt als lid meteen meedoen met de posities die ik uitstuur, lid worden kan via de aanbieding die loopt tot 1 DECEMBER voor €39 ...

Om u in te schrijven ga meteen naar de link https://www.usmarkets.nl/tradershop en dan staat u vandaag nog op de lijst ...

Guy Boscart

ak-47 09:16 eerste target 10502 en vervolgens 10307 - ema 5/13 is in sell modus
Vandaag, 07:51

Markt snapshot Europa vandaag

GLOBAL TOP NEWS
Britain's government launched scaled-back job support on Thursday for workers hit by the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic, but warned not everyone could be helped during an economic meltdown that is threatening millions of jobs.​

G7 finance ministers are expected to signal their support for extending a debt relief programme aimed at helping the poorest countries weather the coronavirus pandemic, three sources briefed on the issue said.​

A U.S. judge said Thursday the Trump administration must either delay a ban on U.S. app stores offering TikTok for download or file legal papers defending the decision by Friday.


EUROPEAN COMPANY NEWS
Airbus is set to reaffirm its aircraft production rates, despite warnings that the coronavirus crisis will be deeper and longer than expected, industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

France's richest man Bernard Arnault ratcheted up a tug-of-war over Paris Match publisher Lagardere on Thursday, revealing he had built up a direct stake in the firm, which is under siege from several other investors.

Danske Bank helped Deutsche Bank facilitate suspicious trades worth over $600 million through its branch in Lithuania between 2012 and 2015, Danish media outlets reported on Thursday.​


TODAY'S COMPANY ANNOUNCEMENTS
2Crsi SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Catenae Innovation PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Compagnie Aerienne Inter Regionale Express SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
DBT SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Eurasia Fonciere Investissements SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Fusion Antibodies PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Groupe LDLC SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
HELLA GmbH & Co KGaA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Hydrogen Group PLC Shareholders Meeting
ICG Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Ifa Systems AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
India Capital Growth Fund Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Marble Point Loan Financing Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Naga Group AG Annual Shareholders Meeting
Natuzzi SpA Q2 2020 Earnings Release
OKYO Pharma Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
OTAQ PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting
Soc Conseil en Externalisation en Market SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Societe Anonyme Des Bains De Mer Et Du Cercle Des Etrangers A Monaco SA Annual Shareholders Meeting
Solo Oil PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Stagecoach Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting
Tivoli A/S Annual Shareholders Meeting
Vienna Insurance Group AG Wiener Versicherung Gruppe Annual Shareholders Meeting
Weaccess Group SA Annual Shareholders Meeting​


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All times GMT)
0600 (approx.) United Kingdom PSNB Ex Banks for Aug: Expected 38.000 bln GBP; Prior 26.669 bln GBP
0600 (approx.) United Kingdom PSNB for Aug: Expected 35.050 bln GBP; Prior 25.944 bln GBP
0600 (approx.) United Kingdom PSNCR for Aug: Prior 16.491 bln GBP
0700 (approx.) Austria Ind Prod yy for Jul: Prior -10.3%
0730 Sweden Household Lending Growth yy for Aug: Prior 5.2%
0730 (approx.) Sweden Broad Money for Aug: Prior 4,078,947 mln SEK
0730 Sweden PPI mm for Aug: Prior -0.7%
0730 Sweden PPI yy for Aug: Prior -4.9%
0800 Italy Manufacturing Business Confidence for Sep: Expected 87.5; Prior 86.1
0800 Italy Consumer Confidence for Sep: Expected 100.8; Prior 100.8
0800 (approx.) Euro Zone Money-M3 Annual Growth for Aug: Expected 10.2%; Prior 10.2%
0800 Euro Zone Loans to Households for Aug: Prior 3.0%
0800 Euro Zone Loans to Non-Fin for Aug: Prior 7.0%
0800 (approx.) Euro Zone Broad Money for Aug: Prior 14,003,368 mln EUR

Gisteren, 20:26

TA AEX, Nasdaq, Oracle en IMCD

Een aan­deel uit een index, en dat twee keer. Van­daag bek­ijk ik IMCD met u, uit de AEX. En Ora­cle, uit de Nas­daq. Vier grafieken dus, lat­en we snel begin​nen​.De AEX trapt af, een dag­grafiek. Dege­nen die regel­matig mijn col­umn lezen weten dat deze index lagere top­pen neerzet. De trendli­jn over die…

Lees verder »
Gisteren, 16:47

Markt snapshot Wall Street

TOP NEWS
Apple critics form coalition to challenge App Store fees
A group of Apple's critics - including Spotify Technoloy, Match Group and "Fortnite" creator Epic Games - have joined a nonprofit group that plans to advocate for legal and regulatory action to challenge the iPhone maker's App Store practices.
ByteDance applies for tech export licence in China amid TikTok deal talks
ByteDance has applied for a tech export licence in China as it races to seal a deal with Oracle and Walmart that it hopes will end U.S. government plans to ban its TikTok video-streaming app on security grounds.
AstraZeneca still waiting for FDA go-ahead to resume U.S. trial
AstraZeneca is still waiting for the U.S. drug regulator to approve the restart of the clinical trial of its potential COVID-19 vaccine in the United States almost three weeks after it was paused due to safety concerns.
Facebook's Oversight Board plans to launch just before U.S. election
Facebook's long-delayed independent Oversight Board plans to launch in mid-late October, just before the November U.S. presidential election, although a board member said he did not know whether it would hear cases related to the contest.
Electric vehicle charging network ChargePoint to go public at $2.4 billion valuation
ChargePoint, one of the world's oldest and largest electric vehicle charging networks, said it will go public by merging with Switchback Energy Acquisition in a deal that values the company at $2.4 billion.​


BEFORE THE BELL
U.S. stock index futures were little changed as investors braced for weekly jobless claims data. Concern about another economic hit from the coronavirus pandemic weighed on major European indexes and Asian bourses. The dollar was up, boosted its safe-haven appeal. Gold dropped as analysts said the lack of additional stimulus measures reduced the metal's appeal. Oil pricesrebounded after falling earlier on frail demand outlook. With central bankers also in focus, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be closely watched when he and a number of colleagues speak later in the day.​


STOCKS TO WATCH
Moves
New York Times Co (NYT). Arthur Ochs Sulzberger Jr. will retire as chairman and a member of the company's board by the end of December, the newspaper publisher said on Wednesday. Sulzberger Jr., 69, who joined the newspaper in 1978 as a correspondent, will be replaced as chairman by his son, A.G. Sulzberger, The Times publisher since 2018. In his four-decade long tenure, Sulzberger Jr., who has been chairman of the board since 1997, spearheaded the transformation of the newspaper, known as "The Gray Lady", into a digital media company. He took the newspaper online in 1996.

In Other News
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL). The company’s YouTube would start showing text and links from third-party fact-checkers under videos that discuss mail-in ballots, as part of efforts to curb misinformation on the site ahead of the U.S. election in November. An information panel, a feature first launched in Brazil and India last year, will also highlight third-party, fact-checked articles for search queries related to voter registration, YouTube said.
Apple Inc (AAPL). A group of the company's critics - including Spotify Technoloy, Match Group and "Fortnite" creator Epic Games - have joined a nonprofit group that plans to advocate for legal and regulatory action to challenge the iPhone maker's App Store practices. The Coalition for App Fairness, structured as a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C. and Brussels, said it plans to advocate legal changes that would force Apple to change. Beyond Epic, Match and Spotify, other members include smaller firms such as Basecamp, Blix, Blockchain.com, Deezer, and Tile, along with developers from Europe including the European Publishers Council, News Media Europe and Protonmail.​
AstraZeneca Plc (AZN). The company is still waiting for the U.S. drug regulator to approve the restart of the clinical trial of its potential COVID-19 vaccine in the United States almost three weeks after it was paused due to safety concerns. The U.S. trial of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine candidate, initially developed by the University of Oxford, remains on hold while regulators investigate an illness in one of the participants, even after a British study and other programmes outside of the United States have resumed.
Facebook Inc (FB). The company’s long-delayed independent Oversight Board plans to launch in mid-late October, just before the November U.S. presidential election, although a board member said he did not know whether it would hear cases related to the contest. The board, created by Facebook in response to criticism of its handling of problematic content, will initially have the power to review decisions to take down posts from Facebook and Instagram, and recommend policy changes. Oversight Board member Alan Rusbridger told Reuters in an interview that the board was now aiming for an October launch. A spokesman confirmed that timetable, saying the launch, originally planned for last year, had also been slowed by the coronavirus pandemic.​
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG). The U.S. motorcycle maker said it expects to report $75 million in additional restructuring costs for 2020 related to actions including discontinuing its sales and manufacturing operations in India. The company said it now expects total restructuring costs of about $169 million in 2020, and this will also include a workforce reduction of about 70 employees in India, a market where its annual sales volumes account for less than 5% of the company's total.​
Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYAAY). Britain risks losing hundreds of thousands of travel and tourism jobs in the coming months unless the government offers proper supports to workers and relaxes travel restrictions, Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary said. O'Leary, group chief executive of Europe's largest low-cost carrier, was speaking hours ahead of the announcement of new UK COVID-19 support measures and weeks ahead of the launch of a European Union plan to coordinate travel restrictions in Europe. Failure join the EU plan and provide a proper furlough scheme to pay those whose work has dried up due to COVID-19 "will mean literally hundreds of thousands of job losses this winter," O'Leary told Sky News in an interview.
Sinovac Biotech Ltd (SVA). The company hopes to supply its experimental coronavirus vaccine to more South American countries by outsourcing some manufacturing procedures to a partner in Brazil, its chief executive said. Sinovac plans to provide semi-finished products to its partner Instituto Butantan, which will perform filling and packaging and supply finished items to other South American countries, Chairman Yin Weidong told a news conference.​
Switchback Energy Acquisition Corp (SBE). ChargePoint, one of the world's oldest and largest electric vehicle charging networks, said it will go public by merging with Switchback Energy Acquisition in a deal that values the company at $2.4 billion. The deal is expected to close near the end of the year and the company will be named ChargePoint Holdings Inc. A trading symbol on the New York Stock Exchange has not been identified. The deal will raise about $493 million in proceeds that ChargePoint will use to expand in North America and Europe. It includes $225 million from Baillie Gifford, Neuberger Berman Alternatives Advisors and other institutional investors. Baillie Gifford is one of the largest shareholders in EV segment leader Tesla.
Tesla Inc (TSLA). The company’s plan to produce lithium for electric vehicle batteries close to its Nevada Gigafactory faces stark challenges from the outset, including an onerous permitting process, uncertain access to water and questions about unproven methodologies. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told shareholders on Tuesday Tesla has secured rights to 10,000 acres in Nevada where it aims to produce lithium from clay deposits using a process developed internally. The plan drew backlash almost immediately, with critics describing Musk's plan as too simplistic and light on details. Returning rock to the earth after minerals are extracted, for instance, is already common industry practice through the use of tailings dams.
Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL). The company, whose products are used by U.S. states and counties to share election data, said on Wednesday that an unknown party had hacked its internal systems. Tyler, whose platforms are used by elections officials to display voting results, among other tasks, confirmed the breach in an email to Reuters after warning clients in an email earlier in the day. Tyler Technologies said in both emails it did not believe clients' software had been breached. The company told Reuters in its email that it was working to restore its systems and had notified law enforcement. The company did not say whether there had been a ransomware demand or how it had learned of the breach, and it did not respond to questions.
Uber Technologies Inc (UBER). The company-owned Middle East business Careem is seeing its ride service recover more quickly than expected from the coronavirus crisis, while its delivery business is larger than before the pandemic. Careem, which mainly operates in the Middle East, had originally forecast that its ride service would recover at the end of 2021, but now expects it to rebound earlier in the year with some markets already close to pre-COVID levels.
UBS Group AG (UBS). The Swiss National Bank is not aware of a possible merger between giant banks UBS and Credit Suisse, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said. Jordan declined to comment on reports of a potential tie-up or the impact on the stability of the Swiss financial system if such a mega-merger were to materialise. "We do not have any..knowledge about that so I cannot also answer," Jordan told reporters in response to a question. "These are rumours and we do not hear or react to any of these rumours," Jordan said after the central bank kept its expansive monetary policy in place.
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC). The bank and data aggregator Envestnet Yodlee said they had signed a data exchange agreement, the latest move in an ongoing tug of war between fintechs and large banks over information sharing. The deal will enable the bank's customers to share their account information with fintech apps connected to Envestnet Yodlee.


INSIGHT
A roller coaster six months leaves U.S. recovery still uncertain
As businesses shuttered and millions hit the unemployment line last spring, the most dour predictions saw the United States heading for another Great Depression of spiraling collapse and years of massive joblessness. The worst has been avoided. But new academic research and commentary this week from Federal Reserve officials suggest the path of the U.S. recovery remains much in doubt, and the programs approved last spring to buffer the economy from the pandemic may still be in for their stiffest test.​


ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION
Broadcom Inc (AVGO). Piper Sandler raises target price to $400 from $380, stating the company’s networking business should continue to benefit from cloud and hyperscale spending.
General Mills Inc (GIS). Piper Sandler raises target price to $73 from $71, factoring the company’s capacity of M&A and share buybacks, following its dividend hike.


ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 (approx.) Building permits R number for Aug: Prior 1.470 mln
0800 (approx.) Building permits R change mm for Aug: Prior -0.9%
0830 Initial jobless claims: Expected 840,000; Prior 860,000
0830 Jobless claims 4-week average: Prior 912,000
0830 Continued jobless claims: Expected 12.3 mln; Prior 12.628 mln
1000 New home sales units for Aug: Expected 0.895 mln; Prior 0.901 mln
1000 New home sales change mm for Aug: Expected -0.1%; Prior 13.9%
1100 (approx.) KC Fed Manufacturing for Sep: Prior 23
1100 (approx.) KC Fed Composite Index for Sep: Prior 14


COMPANIES REPORTING RESULTS
Costco Wholesale (COST). Expected Q4 earnings of $2.84 per share


CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)
0800 John Wiley & Sons Inc (JWa). Annual Shareholders Meeting
0830 Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI). Q1 earnings conference call
0830 Jabil Inc (JBL). Q4 earnings conference call
0900 Carmax Inc (KMX). Q2 earnings conference call
1000 Freshpet Inc (FRPT). Annual Shareholders Meeting
1000 Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW). Annual Shareholders Meeting
1030 HB Fuller Co (FUL). Q3 earnings conference call
1100 Factset Research Systems Inc (FDS). Q4 earnings conference call
1200 Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI). Annual Shareholders Meeting
1700 Costco Wholesale Corp (COST). Q4 earnings conference call
1700 Vail Resorts Inc (MTN). Q4 earnings conference call


EXDIVIDENDS
Agree Realty Corp (ADC). Amount $0.60
Cerner Corp (CERN). Amount $0.18
CyrusOne Inc (CONE). Amount $0.51
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc (XRAY). Amount $0.10
Equity LifeStyle Properties Inc (ELS). Amount $0.34
Equity Residential (EQR). Amount $0.60
First Midwest Bancorp Inc (FMBI). Amount $0.14
Korn Ferry (KFY). Amount $0.10
Portland General Electric Co (POR). Amount $0.40
Regal Beloit Corp (RBC). Amount $0.30
Retail Properties of America Inc (RPAI). Amount $0.05
Sempra Energy (SRE). Amount $1.04
Valmont Industries Inc (VMI). Amount $0.45
World Fuel Services Corp (INT). Amount $0.10

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